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AM”I, Tel-Aviv, 22 March 2011. סימולציות אקלימיות של שינויים במאזן המים מעל אגן הים התיכון עם מבט לישראל – האם אנו מתייבשים? פינחס אלפרט ביה"ס פורטר לסביבה והחוג לגיאופיסיקה, אוניברסיטת תל אביב בשיתוף עם:ג'ין פנגג'ון, שמעון קריצ'ק, רנה סמואלס, יצחק כרמונה,מעין הראל. Overview.

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am i tel aviv 22 march 2011
AM”I, Tel-Aviv, 22 March 2011

סימולציות אקלימיות של שינויים במאזן המים מעל אגן הים התיכון עם מבט לישראל – האם אנו מתייבשים?

פינחס אלפרט

ביה"ס פורטר לסביבה והחוג לגיאופיסיקה,

אוניברסיטת תל אביב

בשיתוף עם:ג'ין פנגג'ון, שמעון קריצ'ק, רנה סמואלס, יצחק כרמונה,מעין הראל

overview
Overview
  • Factor Separation and synergy- New Book
  • Super High-Resolution MRI 20-km climate model- new results
  • High Resolution Climate Modeling over the Mediterranean
  • High Resolution Model Ensemble over the E. Mediterranean
  • Conclusions
slide3

Published

Feb. 2011

Cambridge Univ.

Press

one comment on the importance of a proper factor separation from the book s introduction
One comment on the importance of a proper Factor Separation; from the Book’s Introduction

“There seems to be some basic psychological tendency in human thinking to present results linearly, with the hidden assumption that the synergies are small or can be ignored.

Nonlinearities in the atmosphere, however, are often significant, and therefore need to be calculated and separated from the pure contributions of each factor, as shown in many very different applications presented in this Book.”

high resolution model ensemble over the e mediterranean
High Resolution Model Ensemble over the E. Mediterranean
  • 4 climate models (18-25 km horizontal resolution)
    • Japanese MRI 20km
    • ECHAM- RegCM- 25 km
    • ECHAM- MM5- 18 km
    • HADLEY-MM5- 18 km
    • First, some results from the Super High-Resolution MRI 20-km climate model:

A. Kitoh, A. Yatagai and P. Alpert, "First super-high-resolution model projection that the ancient “Fertile Crescent” will disappear in this century", Hydrolo. Res. Lett., 2, 1-4, DOI: 10.3178/HRL.2.1, 2008.

annual precipitation mm year

Annual Precipitation (mm/year)

EMclim

IPCC AR4 models

CRU

20-km model

slide8

Comparison of average total observed seasonal P

  • The six stations are from south-to-north, Egypt---Cairo (Ca,); Israel---Beer-Sheva (Bs), Tel-Aviv (Ta), Haifa (Hf); Lebanon---Beirut (Be) and Turkey---Adana (Ad). Unit: mm/season.
slide9

Sketch map

N-InF

N-OutF

E-InF

West inflow

E-OutF

West outflow

S-InF

S-OutF

Unit: mm/day

P E

water vapor budget equation
Water vapor budget equation

Vertical integrated

moisture flux (VIMF)

VICLF

CL=cloud Liquid

dPW

By neglect dPW, VICLF +

Using Green’s Theorem

Total boundary outflow and inflow

Area

slide11

Difference of seasonal total E, P and P-E between the future (2075-2099) and current (1979-2002) 20 km GCM runs. Dashed contour lines indicate the negative changes, i.e. reduction in the future. Unit: mm/season

slide12

Annual P,E changes during 2075-2099 compared to current mean

E

P

Annual anomaly of P(black bar) and E (shaded bar) for the future (2075-2099), separated by sea and land area over the Mediterranean region.

Calculated by individual year of the future minus the current mean (1979-2007). Unit: mm/day.

slide13

Five precipitation categories based on monthly averages in (mm/d) over the whole Mediterranean- current & future

slide14

Relationships among the moisture budget components based on the 5 different precipitation categories

ΔP

Unit: mm/day

Current (1979-2007)

E

S

W

E

N

S

W

N

Future (2075-2099) minus current

S

W

E

N

S

N

E

W

Tout-Tinf

E-P

P

Tinf

Tout

E

Inflow

Outflow

slide15

Har-Knaan

Tel-Aviv

Beer-Sheva

Comparison of monthly mean precipitation from observed rain gauge (black column) and 20km GCM (grey column) for selected six stations in Israel based on their locations. Unit: mm/day. The selected stations are: Northern Israel---(a) Har-Knaan, (b) Eilon; Center Israel---(c) Tel-Aviv, (d) Jerusalem; Southern Israel---(e) Beer-Sheva, (f) Elat.

streamflow

2081-2100changes

in (m3/s)

20km present MRI SST MIROC SST

Streamflow

slide17

Changes of monthly mean river discharge of six rivers by (1979-2003) compare to (2075-2099). Except to the Jordan River, all rivers flow into the Mediterranean (m3/s). Bold lines ( ) are for current climate, while dashed ( ) for the future.

early rcm transient run a1b 1960 2060 50 km
Early RCM Transient Run A1B 1960-206050 km

P. Alpert, S.O. Krichak, H. Shafir , D. Haim, and I. Osetinsky, "Climatic trends to extremes

employing regional modeling and statistical interpretation over the E. Mediterranean",

Global and Planetary Change, 63, 163-170, 2008.

first high resolution climate model ensemble over the e mediterranean
First High Resolution Climate Model Ensemble over the E. Mediterranean
  • 4 climate models (18-25 km horizontal resolution)
    • Japanese MRI 20km
    • ECHAM- RegCM- 25 km
    • ECHAM- MM5- 18 km
    • HADLEY-MM5- 18 km
  • SRES A1B scenario
  • Weighted ensemble based on Jensen-Shannon Divergence metric
    • The models with higher similarity to observations over a control period are given higher weights
example kfar giladi total annual rainfall in mm y two past periods 1965 94 1970 99
Example: Kfar Giladi- Total Annual Rainfall in mm/y – Two past periods (1965-94; 1970-99)

OBS

p

mm/y

Probability Density Function for Kfar Giladi for observed data (2 time periods:

1965-1994 (solid), 1970-1999 (dashed), and 4 models.

example kfar giladi number of wet days per season two past periods 1965 94 1970 99
Example: Kfar Giladi- Number of Wet Days per season Two past periods (1965-94; 1970-99)

p

Number of Days

Probability Density Function for Kfar Giladi for observed data (2 time periods:

1965-1994 (solid), 1970-1999 (dashed)), and 4 models. Wet Days shown.

example kfar giladi number of 3 day wet spells two past periods 1965 94 1970 99
Example: Kfar Giladi- Number of 3 Day Wet Spells Two past periods (1965-94; 1970-99)

p

Number of spells

Probability Density Function for Kfar Giladi for observed data (2 time periods:

1965-1994 (solid), 1970-1999 (dashed)), and 4 models. Wet Spells shown .

change in jsd calculated pdf over time for average annual amounts
Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Average Annual Amounts

shows observed data (red) and calculated past

near future (2015-2035 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid).

far future (2035-2060 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid).

p

mm/yr

change in jsd calculated pdf over time for number of wet days
Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Number of Wet Days

shows observed data (red) and calculated past

near future (2015-2035 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid).

far future (2035-2060 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid).

p

Number of Days

change in jsd calculated pdf over time for number of wet spells
Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Number of Wet Spells

shows observed data (red) and calculated past

near future (2015-2035 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid).

far future (2035-2060 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid).

p

Number of Spells

slide29

Durations (days)

of hot/cool spells

1975-1948

2002-1976

Heat waves increase & longer

Frequency of hot & cold spells in July-Aug in both halfs of 1948-2002

B. Ziv , H. Saaroni, A. Baharad, D. Yekutieli and P. Alpert, "Indications for aggravation in

Summer heat conditions over the Mediterranean basin", Geoph. Res. Lett., 32, L12706, doi:10.1029/2005GL022796, 2005.

distribution of 850 hpa daily temperatures for 1948 1977 and 1973 2002
Distribution of 850 hPa daily temperaturesfor1948-1977 and 1973-2002

Shift in the mode temperatures Increase in extreme events

slide31

Changes in T-850 mb distributions over the E. Mediterranean

  • Most frequent value increases
  • Distribution widens
  • Increase in heat waves & their intensity

B. Ziv , H. Saaroni, A. Baharad, D. Yekutieli and P. Alpert, "Indications for aggravation in

Summer heat conditions over the Mediterranean basin", Geoph. Res. Lett., 32, L12706, doi:10.1029/2005GL022796, 2005.

slide32

Climatic Trends

"Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003",

X. Zhang, E. Aguilar, S. Sensoy, H. Melkonyan, U. Tagiyeva, N. Ahmed, N. Kutaladze, F. Rahimzadeh, A. Taghipour, T. H. Hantosh, P.Alpert, M. Semawi, M. K. Ali, M. H. S. Al-Shabibi, Z. Al-Oulan, T. Zatari, I. Al Dean Khelet, S. Hamoud, R. Sagir, M. Demircan, M. Eken, M. Adiguzel, L. Alexander, T. C. Peterson, and T. Wallis, "Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003",J. Geophys. Res., 110, D22104, doi:10.1029/2005JD006181, 2005

slide34

TX90p

Top 10

Percentiles

Tmax/min

TN90p

Recent

20 y dramatic

slide35

TX90p

Top 10

Percentiles

Tmax/min

TN90p

Solid triangles

5% significance

Turkey- recent & TN

More significant

slide36

Annual Precipitation Anomalies

Precipitation variation is characterized by strong interannual variability

without any significant trend in any of the indices

mediterranean changes in p 1980 2002 vs 1931 79
Mediterranean Changes in P: 1980-2002 vs. 1931-79

Actual change in annual means (mm)

Data from UEA TS2p1

t-test (95% confidence highlighted)

Y. Kushnir 2009

slide38

Max 1 day

Precipitation

Amount

Middle East-

Mixed trends

Unlike most

Mediterranean

Annual Total

Precipitation

Zhang et al

JGR, 2005

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Tendency to extreme in daily and seasonal rainfall- Desertification?
  • Tendency to extreme temperatures
  • Japanese run confirms how crucial are high-resolution climate runs
  • First High Resolution Model Ensemble over the E. Mediterranean confirms the tendency to extreme along with less total rainfall
slide41

Conclusions

  • The 20km GCM data better represents the precipitation region over the Middle east region, an increasing evaporation with the magnitude of 150-200 mm/season at the water bodies of EM are projected; a significant decrease of precipitation was found over west Turkey, west Syria, entire Israel and Lebanon, with a magnitude of over 200 mm/wet seasonat the end of this century. The famous “Fertile Crescent” precipitation strip becomes much drier.
  • For the current climate, the E of the eastern Mediterranean sea (EMS) is higher than that of western Mediterranean sea (WMS) with a average value of 0.4 mm/day, but with the precipitation it is opposite, i.e. less than in the WMS with an average value of 0.32 mm/day. For the future, the evaporation increases for the EMS are higher than that of WMS, with the average value of 0.45 and 0.22 mm/day respectively; while the precipitation decreases for the WMS are higher than that of theEMS, with the average value of -0.21 and -0.16 mm/day.
slide42

The separated calculated boundary moisture flux balance the moisture budget equation quite well, the main source of moisture for the precipitation over the Mediterranean comes from the west and north boundaries. The evaporation acts a significant positive role to the precipitation of Mediterranean.

  • Even the numbers of precipitation events decrease in the future, however, the absolute value for the largest precipitation category shows a increasing trend.
  • The decrease of river flow, increase evaporation and decrease precipitation make the water crisis available over the study area at the end of this century.