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Examination of the potential determinants of demand on the Polish residential housing market in the years 1995-2008. Dariusz Pęchorzewski, Phd Szczecin Renovation Centre Institute of Economic Analyses, Diagnoses and Forecasts. Introduction Reactions to crisis in global economy:

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slide1
Examination of the potential determinants of demand on the Polish residential housing market in the years 1995-2008

Dariusz Pęchorzewski, Phd

Szczecin Renovation Centre

Institute of Economic Analyses, Diagnoses and Forecasts

slide2
Introduction
  • Reactions to crisis in globaleconomy:
  • Increasing uncertainty in the global economy
  • Desire to take better economic decisions
  • Search for accuracy and stability
  • Attempts to find reliable aspects of the economy
slide3
Research
  • Study of the relationship between demand for and prices of real estate, and standing of the economy measured by:
  • GDP dynamics,
  • level of unemployment,
  • main index of Warsaw Stock Exchange – WIG-20,
  • interest rates.
slide4
Research cont.

Examination of increasing and decreasing trends in potential determinants of demand during the research period

in order to

analyze the impact of positive and negative changes on the real estate market.

slide5
Research cont.

Time delays between variables (determinants)

Capture time in which real estate market responds to changes in the determinants

slide6
Research cont.
  • Variables describing development of real estate market:
  • Realized demand for dwellings - sum of prices received for all transactions registered by the tax office.
  • Average transaction price of1 square meter during research period in the right-bank part of Szczecin.
slide7
* - The first three quarters of 2008.

Figure 1. The evolution of demand for dwellings in the right-bank part of Szczecin in the years 1995-2008.

Source: Own calculations based on data from the 3rd Tax Office in Szczecin.

slide8
Figure 2. Evolution of the average transaction price of 1 sq. m of dwellings in the residential housing market in the right-bank part of Szczecin in the years 1995-2008.

Source: Own calculations based on data 3rd Tax Office in Szczecin.

slide9
Potential determinants of real estate market
  • Stock exchange index WIG-20 - its formation during the period can be divided into four stages - two increases and two decreases.

Phases:

- 1st phase - period of growth from 1995 to 1999,

- 2nd phase - decrease in the period 2000-2003,

- 3rd phase - four-year phase of increases, terminated by the current global financial crisis,

- 4th phase - decrease.

slide11
Potential determinants of real estate market
  • Average levels of stock market index

- force and direction of relationship with demand and average prices was measured using the Pearson correlation coefficient.

- relationship studied both with and without time delays (delays taken into account increased quarterly from 1 quarter to 2 years).

slide12
Table 1. Pearson coefficients of correlation between the development of WIG-20 and the demand for dwellings in the right-bank part of Szczecin.

Source: Own calculations.

slide13
Table 2. Pearson coefficients of correlation between the development of WIG-20 and the average price of 1 sq. m of residential dwellings in the right-bank part of Szczecin.

Source: Own calculations.

slide14
Potential determinants of real estate market
  • Interest rates - price of money.

Six sub-periods were identified in the years 1995-2008.

slide17
Table 3. Pearson coefficients of correlation between changes in interest rates and the demand for dwellings in the right-bank part of Szczecin.

Source: Own calculations.

slide18
Table 4. Pearson coefficients of correlation between changes in interest rates and the average price of 1 sq. m of residential dwellings in the right-bank part of Szczecin.

Source: Own calculations.

slide19
Potential determinants of real estate market
  • Rate of unemployment

In the years studied, three phases of changes in the unemployment rate in Szczecin were discerned.

slide21
Table 5. Pearson coefficients of correlation between changes in the unemployment rate and the demand for dwellings in the right-bank part of Szczecin.

Source: Own calculations.

slide22
Table 6. Pearson coefficients of correlation between changes in the unemployment rate and the average price of 1 sq. m of residential dwellings in the right-bank part of Szczecin.

Source: Own calculations.

slide23
Potential determinants of real estate market
  • Dynamics of gross domestic product

During the study period, a total of six phases were specified.

slide26
Table 7. Pearson coefficients of correlation between changes in GDP and the demand for dwellings in the right-bank part of Szczecin.

Source: Own calculations.

slide27
Table 8. Pearson coefficients of correlation between changes in GDP and the average price of 1 sq. m of residential dwellings in the right-bank part of Szczecin.

Source: Own calculations.

slide28
Main findings
  • The most important factor determining demand for dwellings during the period analyzed was shortage of residential housing.

This makes it very difficult to conduct research into regularities in the real estate market. It will not be possible to conduct more reliable measurements until the market is saturated.

  • Real estate market reacted more quickly to negative than to positive signals during the study period.

Negative signals caused quick response in demand and prices. Positive changes needed to consolidate in economy before strong reaction of real estate market occurred.

slide29
Summary
  • Results obtained should not be regarded as stabilized.
  • Some results may be burdened with a degree of randomness or coincidence.

However, grounds for making conclusions about existing or emerging regularities have been discovered.

slide30
Summary cont.
  • Development of Polish real estate market has lasted only 20 years.
  • Market mechanisms have been disrupted by attempts to adapt quickly to free market mechanisms.
  • There has been a qualitative change in the research period - Poland's accession to the European Union.
  • Study period included initial phases of global financial crisis.

Therefore, search for regularities is difficult and subjective.

  • Observed relationships were strong and statistically significant.

There is hope that it will be possible in the future to accurately predict changes in the real estate market.

slide31
Thank you for your attention

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