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Jaime Malaga, Ph.D. Center for North American Studies Texas Tech University - Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics. Recent Trends in U.S. Cotton and Sorghum Exports and their Impact on the South. Outline. Cotton Price and Exports Cotton in the South Cotton Trends and Expectations

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Jaime Malaga, Ph.D.

  • Center for North American Studies
  • Texas Tech University - Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics

Recent Trends in U.S. Cotton and Sorghum Exports and their Impact on the South

outline
Outline
  • Cotton Price and Exports
  • Cotton in the South
  • Cotton Trends and Expectations
  • Sorghum Price and Exports
  • Sorghum in the South
  • Sorghum Trends and Expectations
  • General Remarks
world cotton imports
World Cotton Imports

2010-11

2000-01

world cotton exports
World Cotton Exports

2010-11

2000-01

cotton china
Cotton China

Source: CERI

cotton mexico
Cotton Mexico

Source: CERI

factors affecting cotton markets
Factors Affecting Cotton Markets

Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses

  • - Changes in US cotton production
  • - India cotton export restrictions
  • - Pakistan flooding
  • - China Textile Industry Quick recovery
  • - Exchange rates
  • - Depletion of cotton stocks
  • - Inflation in China
us cotton production by region
US Cotton Production by Region

Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses

Other

Southwest (TX)

Mid-South (MS, AR, LA, TN)

Southeast (GA, NC, AL)

us cotton forecast
US Cotton Forecast?

Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses

us sorghum prices 2006 2010
US Sorghum (Prices) 2006-2010

Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses

Sorghum Price

Gulf Port LA

world sorghum exports 2006 2010
World Sorghum Exports 2006-2010

Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses

75%

US

65%

Argentina

world sorghum imports 2006 2010
World Sorghum Imports 2006-2010

Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses

E.U.

Mexico 41%

Japan

us sorghum by region
US Sorghum by Region

Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses

Total US

Southern States

us sorghum production by state south
US Sorghum Production by State (South)

Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses

factors affecting sorghum export markets
Factors Affecting Sorghum Export Markets
  • US total production and exports declining (long term) Ethanol use increasing
  • Most of US exports going to Mexico (Chicken industry)
  • Some unexpected demand (EU) may affect flows and prices
  • Growing competition from Argentina and Australia
  • Potential new markets in Sub Saharan Africa and LA (Colombia, Chile, Ecuador)
final remarks
Final Remarks

Cotton

-Record high prices will go down and stabilize next year

-US exports 75% of its cotton and exports will continue to grow

-Southern States account for 90% of US exports

-Relative prices of other commodities will be key variables.

-Factors to watch: China mill use, Exchange rates, Energy prices, Indian, Australian and Brazilian exports, WTO Doha round?

Sorghum

-Erratic prices will tend to stabilize and decline

-US exports 40% of its sorghum but exports may decrease

-Southern States (mainly TX) account for 40-45% of US production

-Factors to watch: Mexican chicken industry, competition from Argentina and Australia, New emerging markets, ethanol industry demand.