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National Centers for Environmental Prediction

National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Spring 2010 - COPC Meeting. Silver Spring, MD May 4, 2010. “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”. Louis W. Uccellini NCEP Director. Overview. Define NCEP Model Production Suite -- Forces for Change

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National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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  1. National Centers forEnvironmental Prediction Spring 2010 - COPC Meeting Silver Spring, MD May 4, 2010 “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini NCEP Director

  2. Overview Define NCEP Model Production Suite -- Forces for Change -- Example of Multimodel Ensemble for Global Predictions Continued Interactions with DoD -- Navy Contributions to NAEFS -- AF Backup; Model Utilization FY10-11 Model Update Building Update Summary

  3. NCEP Mission and Vision Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Aviation Weather Center Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operation Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

  4. EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPC Climate Test Bed TPC Joint Hurricane Test Bed HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community 5

  5. Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Inter-annual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation Forecasts and Warnings Offshore and High Seas Forecasts and Warnings NCEP: “From the Sun to the Sea” • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

  6. NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Ocean Model Hurricane Models* North American Mesoscale Model Hours Severe Weather Mesoscale Runs* • GFDL • WRF Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Minutes Dispersion Models for DHS Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control * Potential ensemble candidates

  7. Forecast NOAA Model Production Suite Oceans RTOFS/HYCOM WaveWatch III Climate CFS Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM3 1.7B Obs/Day Satellites 99.9% Regional DA Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Regional DA North American Ensemble Forecast System WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation NOAH Land Surface Model

  8. Transition to IBM Power 6 complete Declared operational August 12, 2009 69.7 trillion calculations/sec Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5 4,992 processors 20 terabytes of memory 330 terabytes of disk space 1.7 billion observations/day 27.8 Million model fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes Models made available to all NWS forecasters, media, private sector, public Number of Hits (Millions) Computing Capability Web Access to NCEP Models by Month 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

  9. NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Major Upgrades in Global and Hurricane Numerical models Advances Related To USWRP 2003-2009 trend line

  10. Forces for Change • Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite • SREF • NAEFS • Climate Forecast System • Entering the NPOESS era • More rapid access to hyperspectral data • GPS soundings • Higher resolution surface radiance data • All models run within ESMF • Models run concurrently • Hybrid vertical coordinate • Coupled • Spanning all scales • Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications • NUOPC • Incorporating FNMOC ensembles into NAEFS as initial capability for NUOPC (FNMOC/TOC/EMC/NCO) ESMF-based System Global/Regional Model Domain Model Region 1 Model Region 2

  11. Multi Model Ensemble: Opportunity to Interact with the Navy through North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) • Collaboration between NCEP, Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), FNMOC and Mexico Weather Service • Elements: • Demonstrate value of Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) • Engage in collaborative software development, focused on postprocessing products from an arbitrary number of forecast systems • Establish operational data transfer • Application to operational products with shared software • Continue to monitor value-added with MME strategy • Global ensemble products • NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) • operational in NAEFS • 20 members -16 days • CMC • operational in NAEFS • 20 members - 16 days • FNMOC • experimental in NAEFS • 16 members – 10 days CSAB Spring 2010

  12. Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS 2m Temperature X CSAB Spring 2010

  13. NCEP’s Interaction with the Air Force • Backup • AWC, SPC by 15th Operational Weather Squadron at Scott Air Force Base • SWPC by 2nd Weather Group at Offutt Air Force Base • Test Beds • Space Weather Prediction Test Bed (ongoing) • WRF DTC (ongoing) • JCSDA (ongoing) • Col. Mark Zettlemoyer, chair of Management Oversight Board • COPC CONOPS • Shared processing; NCEP providing direct support to AF through GFS and for NA sector through WRF • Model Development: Land Surface Model (NOAH) • Support for Hurricane and Winter reconnaissance missions, used directly in Global Forecast System • NUOPC – Tri-agency partnership to address common operational global NWP needs for next generation model system

  14. FY10 Model Implementations SREF • Increase resolution of WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM to 32 km • Expand bias correction from CONUS to North America; statistical downscaling using 12 km NAM and using 5km RTMA HWRF • Structural changes only, no scientific upgrade • Code corrections, data assimilation, surface heat and momentum exchange and gravity wave drag upgrades GFS/GSI • Post consolidation • GFS code restructuring • New data types added to GSI RUC (early FY11) • Change to Rapid Refresh

  15. FY10 Model Implementations GEFS - Increase horizontal resolution T126->T190 for 4 daily cycles out to 384H; use 8th horizontal diffusion for all horizontal resolutions; introduce stochastic perturbation scheme RTOFS:HYCOM • Add Jason-2 altimeter data; incremental upgrade of data assimilation schemes Global Multi-Grid Wave Model -Generate GRIB2 output earlier in run; increase internal spectral model resolution; increase spectral resolution of point output

  16. FY10 Model Implementations GFS - Horizontal Resolution Increase to T574 (27 km) with upgraded physics package RTMA • CONUS upgrade to 2.5 km, AK 3 km • Shift AK RTMA Grid • Guam coverage AQM • Extended CONUS AQFS (ozone) to HI and Alaska • CONUS dust &/or smoke HYSPLIT • CONUS dust HI-Res Window • Upgrade WRF model, add Guam, turn off RSM for HI HYSPLIT Volcanic Ash 24 hr 36 hr 48 hr Surface to 20K ft Initial time 18Z April 20, 2010

  17. FY11 Model Implementations Hurricane Wave Model (early FY11) • Upgrade to new multi-grid model running global NAH and NPH grids as a single model Wave Ensemble (early FY11) • Combine FNMOC & NCEP wave models • Extend NCEP wave model to 10 days NAEFS (early FY11) - Inclusion of FNMOC Ensembles - Downscaling for Alaska RUC (early FY11) • Change to Rapid Refresh Composite Reflectivity April 24, 2010 Severe Weather Outbreak in MS

  18. Building Update NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Five NCEP Centers (EMC, NCO, HPC, OPC, CPC) NESDIS Research and Satellite Services OAR Air Resources Laboratory 40 Spaces for visiting scientists Approximately 270,000 ft2 Includes space for over 800 employees/contractors/visiting Five NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory

  19. Building Update • Construction halted (Dec 08) • Developer files federal • suit and goes bankrupt (Jul 08) • Leaser identified (Fall 09) • Awaiting resolution of federal • suit (May-Jun 10) • Continues to have major implications • for achieving Strategic Goals and • UCAR review recommendations

  20. Summary • NCEP sustaining a collaborative approach to improving all forecast components from models to service centers. • Depends on partnerships (COPC, Testbeds, private sector,…) • WRF; DTC; JCSDA; NUOPC… • ConOps • Backups • Communications and data sharing • Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist • JCSDA; NUOPC; Ocean model transfer (global HYCOM) • Priority Items: • Model implementations on new Power 6 • Tracking situation with new building • Tracking model performance: drop out team

  21. Appendix

  22. NCEP Production Suite Current 100 % GDAS NAM analysis FIRE GFS analysis HUR Rapid Refresh Data Processing Waves SREF Percentage of Capacity GENS/NAEFS NAM GFS RDAS Air Quality RTOFS CFS 1 2 3 4 5 6 Hours

  23. Reforecast SREF WAV HUR NAM CFS MFS GENS/NAEFS GFS RTOFS RTOFS Air Quality Hydro / NIDIS/FF Air Quality CFS & MFS RDAS RDAS RDAS RDAS RDAS GDAS GDAS GDAS GDAS GDAS NCEP Production Suite Next Generation Prototype Phase 4 100 % Rapid Refresh Percentage of Capacity 1 2 3 4 5 6 Hours

  24. Record Values

  25. Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q1FY11

  26. FY2010 Implementations

  27. FY2010 Implementations

  28. FY2010 Implementations

  29. FY2010 Implementations

  30. FY2010 Implementations

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