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SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014 David Sykes Senior Demographic Researcher

SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014 David Sykes Senior Demographic Researcher. Looking back 40 years: Melbourne. Changing distribution of change. Melbourne – 80’s to early 90’s. Melbourne – 2000s. 3. Total dwelling approvals 2001-2013. NORTHERN. 19%. EASTERN. 15%. WESTERN. 18%. 22%.

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SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014 David Sykes Senior Demographic Researcher

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  1. SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014David SykesSenior Demographic Researcher

  2. Looking back 40 years: Melbourne

  3. Changing distribution of change Melbourne – 80’s to early 90’s Melbourne – 2000s 3

  4. Total dwelling approvals 2001-2013 NORTHERN 19% EASTERN 15% WESTERN 18% 22% CENTRAL SOUTHERN 27% 3

  5. Annual dwelling approvals – change over a decade GREATER MELBOURNE NORTHERN +47% +17% EASTERN WESTERN +18% -4% +63% CENTRAL SOUTHERN -11% 3

  6. Changing dwelling types Source: ABS Building Approvals 3

  7. Victorian population facts as at 2013 Total Population: 5.79 million Annual growth: 107,900 (1.9% p.a.) 3

  8. Victorian population facts as at 2013 Total Population: 5.79 million Annual growth: 107,900 (1.9% p.a.) Net overseas migration: 62,300 Net interstate migration: 7,500 Natural increase: 38,100 3

  9. Some trends are unmistakeable • Strong growth • Urbanisation • Changing age structure 2

  10. Projections driven by strong natural increase and overseas migration

  11. Categories of net overseas migration Net Overseas Migration, by major groupings and visa, Victoria 2010-11 Permanent Other Temporary

  12. 80%+ of Victoria’s growth in Melbourne +4.5m +1.9m +3.6m (82%) +1.6m (80%) Historic Projected Source: ABS 2013; DTPLI 2014 5

  13. Total population change by LGA, 2011-31

  14. Average annual growth rate by LGA, 2011-31

  15. Proportion of population aged 0-19 years, 2031

  16. Proportion of population aged 65+ years, 2031

  17. Households by Type, 2011-51 May not sum to 100% due to rounding

  18. Household Types, 2011 – 2031 Female lone person Male lone person One parent family Group households and other families Couple family with children Couple family without children

  19. Household Types, 2011 – 2031 One parent family Male lone person Female lone person Couple family with children Group households and other families Couple family without children

  20. Household Types, 2011 – 2031 One parent family Male lone person Couple family with children Female lone person Group households and other families Couple family without children

  21. Certainty and uncertainty Will a 60 year old behave in 2034 as a 60 year old behaves in 2014? Uncertain Long term change Future levels of overseas migration When Melb’s pop reaches 5m / 6m How population will change in Individual LGAs Most pop growth will be in cities – Melb’s pop will reach 5 m / 6m The number of 60 year olds in 2034 Short term change Population will grow Population will age Certain

  22. Certainty and uncertainty 3

  23. Certainty and uncertainty Projection horizon 3

  24. Certainty and uncertainty 1971 www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/ 3

  25. Certainty and uncertainty 1971 www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/ 2011 www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review 3

  26. Certainty and uncertainty 1971 www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/ 2051? 2011 www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review www.digitaltrends.com/features/faster-forward-imagining-the-future-car-of-2050/#!9RImc 3

  27. Certainty and uncertainty 1971 www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/ 2051? 2011 www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review www.digitaltrends.com/features/faster-forward-imagining-the-future-car-of-2050/#!9RImc 3

  28. Looking back 40 years, looking forward 40 years: Melbourne

  29. SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014David SykesSenior Demographic Researcher

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