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Model Based DSS Creating Information Under Conditions of Uncertainty and Complexity. Information Technology for Enterprise Strategic Systems. DATA BASE. MODEL BASE. External Data. External Models. DBMS. MBMS. DATA WAREHOUSING. ON LINE ANALYTICAL PROCESSING. Interface.

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model based dss creating information under conditions of uncertainty and complexity
Model Based DSSCreating Information Under Conditions of Uncertainty and Complexity

Information Technology for Enterprise Strategic Systems

DATABASE

MODELBASE

External

Data

External

Models

DBMS

MBMS

DATA WAREHOUSING

ON LINE ANALYTICAL PROCESSING

Interface

GUI, Intelligent Objects, Voice, GroupWare, etc.

slide2

Developing and Using Models Processes for Analyzing Problem/Opportunities Situations

Model Representation

Deterministic Analysis

Probabilistic Analysis

Evaluation of Alternatives

Decision Analysis Models

Statistical, OR/MS, Financial Models

Sensitivity Analyses (1-way, n-way)

Goal Seeking and Optimization

Using Probabilities (Decision Analyses)

Using Probability Distributions (Simulation)

Using Heuristics, Consensus Methods

Goal Maximization, Internal Consistency

slide3

Evaluating Uncertainty Using Models Deterministic Analyses for answering “what-if” questions

Model

Outcome

Controllable

Intermediate

Uncontrollable

Measuring the sensitivity (changes) in the outcome due to changes in the input variable

One-way Sensitivity Analysis

  • Compares one-way sensitivity analysis
  • Most sensitive variable is at top and descends in sensitivity
  • Shows sensitivity range
  • Produces a tornado appearance

INPUT Variables

Profit (Outcome)

n-way Sensitivity Analysis

  • Changes in several inputs
  • Helps evaluate scenarios
  • Scenario manger in Excel
slide4

Evaluating Uncertainty Using Models Probability Analyses for answering “what-if” questions

Model

Outcome

Controllable

Intermediate

Uncontrollable

Simple Linear Regression

(One -Way Probabilistic)

Regression Analyses

Model uncertain relationships using data

Multiple Linear Regression

(N -Way Probabilistic)

Monte-Carlo Simulation

Model uncertain variables using probability distributions