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Interest Rates and Bond Valuation

Interest Rates and Bond Valuation

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Interest Rates and Bond Valuation

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  1. Interest Rates and Bond Valuation Chapter 6

  2. Prepare for Capital Budgeting Part 2: Understand financial statement and cash flow C2-Identify cash flow from financial statement C3-Financial statement and comparison Part 3: Valuation of future cash flow C4-Basic concepts C5-More exercise Part 4: Evaluate stocks and bonds C6-Bond C7-Stock Part 5: Capital budgeting

  3. Different Types of Loans Pure discount Interest only Amortized

  4. 1.Bond Definitions • Bond: Public debt securities issued by corporation or government. Usually interest is paid by the borrower every period, and the principal is repaid at the end of the loan. • Par value (face value):The principal amount of a bond that is repaid at the end of the loan term. • Coupon rate: The annual coupon of a bond divided by its face value is called the bond's coupon rate. • Coupon payment: Stated interest payment made on a bond. • Maturity date: Date on which the principal amount of a bond is paid.

  5. 2. Bond Value • If a bond has five years to maturity, an $80 annual coupon, and a $1000 face value, it will be paid back to bondholder like this: Time 0 1 2 3 4 5 Coupon 80 80 80 80 80 Face Value 1000 Market Price ? • What is the coupon rate? • How much is this bond worth?

  6. Bond Value • Yield or Yield to maturity (r): The rate required in the market on a bond. • If the YTM of the bond is 10%, then how much is the bond worth? ($924.18) • Why?

  7. Bond Value • Finding the market price of a bond requires discounting the coupons and par value at the market rate (yield or yield to maturity, r ). • Bond Value = PV of coupons + PV of par • Bond Value = PV annuity + PV of lump sum

  8. Bond Prices: Relationship Between Coupon and Yield • If coupon rate = YTM, then bond price = par value • Called a par bond • If coupon rate < YTM, then bond price < par value • Why? • Selling at a discount, called a discount bond • If coupon rate > YTM, then bond price > par value • Why? • Selling at a premium, called a premium bond • Remember, as interest rates increase the PV’s decrease. So, as YTM increase, bond prices decrease and vice versa

  9. Valuing a Discount Bond with Annual Coupons • Consider a bond with a coupon rate of 10% and coupons paid annually. The par value is $1000 and the bond has 5 years to maturity. The yield to maturity is 11%. What is the value of the bond? • Using the formula: • B = PV of annuity + PV of lump sum • B = 100[1 – 1/(1.11)5] / .11 + 1000 / (1.11)5 • B = 369.59 + 593.45 = 963.04

  10. Valuing a Discount Bond with Annual Coupons • Using the calculator: • PV of annuity: N = 5; I/Y = 11; PMT = 100; CPT PV = -369.59 • PV of par: N=5; I/Y=11; FV=1000; CPT PV= -593.45 • B=369.59+593.45=963.04 Or • N=5; I/Y=11; PMT=100; FV=1000; CPT PV=-963.04

  11. Valuing a Premium Bond with Annual Coupons • Suppose you are looking at a bond that has a 10% annual coupon and a face value of $1000. There are 20 years to maturity and the yield to maturity is 8%. What is the price of this bond? • Using the formula: • B = PV of annuity + PV of lump sum • B = 100[1 – 1/(1.08)20] / .08 + 1000 / (1.08)20 • B = 981.81 + 214.55 = 1196.36

  12. Valuing a Premium Bond with Annual Coupons • Using the calculator: • PV of annuity: N = 20; I/Y = 8; PMT = 100; CPT PV = -981.81 • PV of par: N = 20; I/Y = 8; FV = 1000; CPT PV = -214.55 • B=981.81+214.55=1196.36 or • N = 20; I/Y = 8; PMT = 100; FV = 1000 • CPT PV = -1196.36

  13. The Bond-Pricing Equation Last Step in Time Value Calculation: Double check how frequently the interest is earned, and make sure the number of period matches with the period rate.

  14. Valuing Semiannual Coupon Bond • Coupon rate = 14%, semiannual coupons • YTM = 16%; Maturity = 7 years; Par value = $1000 • Find present values based on the payment period • How many coupon payments are there? • What is the semiannual coupon payment? • What is the semiannual yield? • B = 70[1 – 1/(1.08)14] / .08 + 1000 / (1.08)14 = 917.56 • Calculator • PMT = 70; N = 14; I/Y = 8; FV = 1000; CPT PV = -917.56

  15. Computing YTM • Yield-to-maturity is the rate implied by the current bond price • Finding the YTM requires trial and error if you do not have a financial calculator and is similar to the process for finding r with an annuity • If you have a financial calculator, enter N, PV, PMT and FV, remembering the sign convention (PMT and FV need to have the same sign, PV the opposite sign)

  16. YTM with Annual Coupons • Consider a bond with a 10% annual coupon rate, 15 years to maturity and a par value of $1000. The current price is $928.09. • Will the yield be more or less than 10%? • N = 15; PV = -928.09; FV = 1000; PMT = 100 • CPT I/Y = 11%

  17. Table 6.1 50%

  18. 3. Bond Markets • Primarily over-the-counter transactions with dealers connected electronically • Extremely large number of bond issues, but generally low daily volume in single issues • Makes getting up-to-date prices difficult, particularly on small company or municipal issues • Treasury securities are an exception

  19. Bond Quotations • What company are we looking at? • What is the coupon rate? If the bond has a $1000 face value, what is the coupon payment each year? • When does the bond mature? • What is the current yield? How is it computed? • What was the trading volume on that day? • What is the quoted price? • How does the bond’s yield compare to a comparable Treasury note/bond?

  20. Treasury Quotations • What is the coupon rate on the bond? • When does the bond mature? • What is the bid price? What does this mean? • What is the ask price? What does this mean? • How much did the price change from the previous day? • What is the yield based on the ask price?

  21. 4. Factors Affecting Required Return • Anything that affects the risk of the cash flows to the bondholders, will affect the required returns (yield to maturity) • Default risk and some bond features • Interest rate risk and time to maturity

  22. Debt Not an ownership interest Creditors do not have voting rights Interest is considered a cost of doing business and is tax deductible Creditors have legal recourse if interest or principal payments are missed Excess debt can lead to financial distress and bankruptcy Equity Ownership interest Common stockholders vote for the board of directors and other issues Dividends are not considered a cost of doing business and are not tax deductible Dividends are not a liability of the firm and stockholders have no legal recourse if dividends are not paid An all equity firm can not go bankrupt 4.1 Compare Debt and Equity

  23. The Bond Indenture • Contract between the company and the bondholders and includes • The basic terms of the bonds: maturity, face value, coupon, etc. • The total amount of bonds issued • A description of property used as security, if applicable • Sinking fund provisions • Call provisions • Details of protective covenants

  24. Bond Classifications • Security • Collateral – secured by financial securities • Mortgage – secured by real property, normally land or buildings • Debentures – unsecured • Notes – unsecured debt with original maturity less than 10 years • Seniority

  25. Bond Characteristics and Required Returns • For which bonds Investors will ask for a higher required return, all else equal? • Secured debt versus a debenture • Subordinated debenture versus senior debt • A bond with a sinking fund versus one without • A callable bond versus a non-callable bond

  26. 4.2 Bond Ratings – Investment Quality • High Grade • Moody’s Aaa and S&P AAA – capacity to pay is extremely strong • Moody’s Aa and S&P AA – capacity to pay is very strong • Medium Grade • Moody’s A and S&P A – capacity to pay is strong, but more susceptible to changes in circumstances • Moody’s Baa and S&P BBB – capacity to pay is adequate, adverse conditions will have more impact on the firm’s ability to pay

  27. Bond Ratings - Speculative • Low Grade • Moody’s Ba, B, Caa and Ca • S&P BB, B, CCC, CC • Considered speculative with respect to capacity to pay. The “B” ratings are the lowest degree of speculation. • Very Low Grade • Moody’s C and S&P C – income bonds with no interest being paid • Moody’s D and S&P D – in default with principal and interest in arrears

  28. 4.3 Government Bonds • Treasury Securities • Federal government debt • T-bills – pure discount bonds with original maturity of one year or less • T-notes – coupon debt with original maturity between one and ten years • T-bonds coupon debt with original maturity greater than ten years • Municipal Securities • Debt of state and local governments • Varying degrees of default risk, rated similar to corporate debt • Interest received is tax-exempt at the federal level

  29. 5.1 Interest Rate Risk The risk that arises from fluctuating interest rates. It depends on how sensitive the bond price is to interest rate changes. The greater portion of the bond’s value comes from cash flow in the future, the more sensitive it is to interest rate changes. • All other things being equal, the longer the time to maturity, the greater the interest rate risk. • All other things being equal, the lower the coupon rate, the greater the interest rate risk. 75%

  30. Figure 6.2: Maturity vs. Interest Risk

  31. 5.2 Inflation and Interest Rates • Real rate of interest – change in purchasing power • Nominal rate of interest – quoted rate of interest, change in purchasing power and inflation • The nominal rate of interest includes real rate of return plus an adjustment for expected inflation

  32. The Fisher Effect • The Fisher Effect defines the relationship between real rates, nominal rates and inflation • (1 + R) = (1 + r)(1 + h), where • R = nominal rate • r = real rate • h = expected inflation rate • Approximation • R = r + h

  33. Example 6.6 • If we require a 10% real return and we expect inflation to be 8%, what is the nominal rate? • R = (1.1)(1.08) – 1 = .188 = 18.8% • Approximation: R = 10% + 8% = 18% • Because the real return and expected inflation are relatively high, there is significant difference between the actual Fisher Effect and the approximation.

  34. 5.3 Term Structure of Interest Rates • Term structure is the relationship between time to maturity and yields, all else equal • It is important to recognize that we pull out the effect of default risk, different coupons, etc. • Yield curve – graphical representation of the term structure • Normal – upward-sloping, long-term yields are higher than short-term yields • Inverted – downward-sloping, long-term yields are lower than short-term yields

  35. Figure 6.6 – Upward-Sloping Yield Curve

  36. Figure 6.6 – Downward-Sloping Yield Curve

  37. Figure 6.7 – Treasury Yield Curve

  38. 6. Factors Affecting Required Return • Default risk premium – bond ratings • Interest rate risk premium – term structure • Taxability premium – municipal versus taxable bonds • Liquidity premium – bonds that have more frequent trading will generally have lower required returns • Anything else that affects the risk of the cash flows to the bondholders, will affect the required returns

  39. Zero Coupon Bonds • Make no periodic interest payments (coupon rate = 0%) • The entire yield-to-maturity comes from the difference between the purchase price and the par value • Cannot sell for more than par value • Sometimes called zeroes, or deep discount bonds • Treasury Bills and principal only Treasury strips are good examples of zeroes

  40. Floating Rate Bonds • Coupon rate floats depending on some index value • Examples – adjustable rate mortgages and inflation-linked Treasuries • There is less price risk with floating rate bonds • The coupon floats, so it is less likely to differ substantially from the yield-to-maturity • Coupons may have a “collar” – the rate cannot go above a specified “ceiling” or below a specified “floor”

  41. Other Bond Types • Income bonds • Convertible bonds • Put bond • There are many other types of provisions that can be added to a bond and many bonds have several provisions – it is important to recognize how these provisions affect required returns 100%

  42. Review Questions 1. What is face value/par value/coupon rate/coupon payment/maturity date/yield to maturity of a bond? 2. How do you find the value of a bond and why do bond prices change? How to find the present value of the bond's coupon payments and face value respectively? What is a par/discount/premium bond? How will interest rate affect the bond prices for bonds with different maturities? How will interest rate affect the bond prices for bonds with different coupon rates? Assume other things are the same. 3. What is the primary type of bond markets?

  43. Review Questions (cont ..) 4. What are the differences between debt and common stock? What is a bond indenture and what are some of the important features? What are bond ratings and why are they important? What are Treasury bonds and Municipal bonds? How will tax rate affect the municipal bonds’ and taxable bonds’ coupon rates? 5. What is interest rate risk? How does inflation affect interest rates? What is the term structure of interest rates? What are the components of term structure of interest rates? 6. What factors determine the required return on bonds? What is zero coupon bond and floating rate bond?