monetary policy report february 2012 n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Monetary Policy Report February 2012 PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Monetary Policy Report February 2012

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 112

Monetary Policy Report February 2012 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 112 Views
  • Uploaded on

Monetary Policy Report February 2012. Figure 1.1. GDP growth in Sweden and the world Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data. Sources: The IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank . Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Monetary Policy Report February 2012' - lyre


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
figure 1 1 gdp growth in sweden and the world annual percentage change seasonally adjusted data
Figure 1.1. GDP growth in Sweden and the worldAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: The IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 1 2 gdp with uncertainty bands annual percentage change seasonally adjusted data
Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data

Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years after the preliminary publication.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 1 3 cpi with uncertainty bands annual percentage change
Figure 1.3. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 1 4 cpif with uncertainty bands annual percentage change
Figure 1.4. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 1 5 repo rate with uncertainty bands per cent quarterly averages
Figure 1.5. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages

Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate for the period 1999 up to the point when the Riksbank started publish forecasts for the repo rate during 2007. The uncertainty bands do not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.

Source: The Riksbank

slide7
Figure 1.6. GDP in different regions and countriesQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 1 7 gross maturities government bonds 2012 billions eur
Figure 1.7. Gross maturities, government bonds 2012Billions, EUR

Note: Maturities including interest. Total maturities in 2012 as a percentage of the total gross public debt are 16.3 per cent for France, 19.3 per cent for Italy and 20.9 per cent for Spain.

Sources: Bloomberg and the IMF

figure 1 9 inflation in the euro area and the usa annual percentage change quarterly averages
Figure 1.9. Inflation in the euro area and the USAAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages

Note. This refers to HICP for the euro area and CPI for the United States.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and the Riksbank

figure 1 10 tcw weighted nominal exchange rate index 18 november 1992 100
Figure 1.10. TCW-weighted nominal exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100

Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.

Source: The Riksbank

slide12
Figure 1.11. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide13
Figure 1.12. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change and percentage of disposable income

Note. Saving ratio including saving in collective insurance schemes.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 1 13 household net assets and savings percentage of disposable income
Figure 1.13. Household net assets and savingsPercentage of disposable income

Note: Assets and saving ratio excluding saving in collective insurance schemes. Savings and disposable income are totalled over four quarters.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide15
Figure 1.14. Swedish exports and the world market for Swedish exports Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data

Note. The export market aims to measure import demand in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of the 15 countries recieving the most Swedish exports.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 1 15 investment ratio per cent of gdp current prices
Figure 1.15. Investment ratioPer cent of GDP, current prices

Note. Four-quarter moving average.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide17
Figure 1.16. Number of employed and hours workedThousands and millions, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide18
Figure 1.17. Employment participation ratePercentage of the population, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 1 18 unemployment percentage of the labour force aged 15 74 seasonally adjusted data
Figure 1.18. UnemploymentPercentage of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide20
Figure 1.19. Proportion of companies reporting a shortage of labourPer cent, seasonally-adjusted data

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

figure 1 20 ru indicator standard deviation
Figure 1.20. RU indicatorStandard deviation

Note. The RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is 0 and the standard deviation is 1.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 1 21 gdp and the labour market gap per cent
Figure 1.21. GDP and the labour market gapPer cent

Note. The GDP gap refers to the GDP deviation from trend, calculated using a production function. The hours gap and employment gap refer to the deviation of hours worked and employment from the Riksbank’s assessed trends for these variables.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide23
Figure 1.22. Wages according to the National Accounts and to the short-term wage statisticsAnnual percentage change

Note. The short-term wage statistics for the last 12 months are preliminary and are usually revised upwards. The yellow dotted line shows the Riksbank’s assessment of the final outcome.

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 1 23 cost pressures in the economy as a whole annual percentage change
Figure 1.23. Cost pressures in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 1 24 cpi cpif and cpif excluding energy annual percentage change
Figure 1.24. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change

Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 1 25 cpif annual percentage change
Figure 1.25. CPIFAnnual percentage change

Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 1 27 real repo rate per cent quarterly averages
Figure 1.27. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period.

Source: The Riksbank

figure 2 1 tcw weighted nominal exchange rate index 18 november 1992 100 quarterly averages
Figure 2.1. TCW-weighted nominal exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100, quarterly averages

Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Swedens most important trading partners.

Source: The Riksbank

figure 2 2 hours gap per cent
Figure 2.2. Hours gapPer cent

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 2 3 cpif annual percentage change quarterly averages
Figure 2.3. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages

Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 2 5 inflation abroad tcw weighted annual percentage change quarterly averages
Figure 2.5. Inflation abroadTCW-weighted, annual percentage change, quarterly averages

Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.

Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

figure 2 6 gdp abroad tcw weighted quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms
Figure 2.6. GDP abroadTCW-weighted, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms

Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.

Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

figure 2 7 policy rate abroad tcw weighted per cent quarterly averages
Figure 2.7. Policy rate abroadTCW-weighted, per cent, quarterly averages

Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.

Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

figure 2 8 cpif annual percentage change quarterly averages
Figure 2.8. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages

Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 2 9 hours gap per cent
Figure 2.9. Hours gapPer cent

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 2 11 hours gap per cent
Figure 2.11. Hours gapPer cent

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 2 12 cpif annual percentage change quarterly averages
Figure 2.12. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages

Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 2 15 cpif annual percentage change quarterly averages
Figure 2.15. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages

Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 2 16 cpi annual percentage change quarterly averages
Figure 2.16. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 2 17 gdp gap per cent
Figure 2.17. GDP gapPer cent

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 2 18 hours gap per cent
Figure 2.18. Hours gapPer cent

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 2 19 unemployment per cent of the labour force aged 15 74 seasonally adjusted data
Figure 2.19. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide48
Figure 3.1. GDP abroadQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics

figure 3 2 retail sales abroad index january 2006 100
Figure 3.2. Retail sales abroadIndex, January 2006 = 100

Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.

Sources: Eurostat, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, national sources and the Riksbank

figure 3 3 unemployment abroad percentage of the labour force seasonally adjusted data
Figure 3.3. Unemployment abroadPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data

Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat, Office for National Statistics, national sources and the Riksbank

slide51
Figure 3.4. GDP in Denmark and NorwayQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Denmark and Statistics Norway

figure 3 5 gdp in the bric countries annual percentage change
Figure 3.5. GDP in the BRIC countriesAnnual percentage change

Note. The BRIC countries consist of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Sources: Central Statistical Organisation, India, Federal State Statistics Service, Russia, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística and National Bureau of Statistics of China

figure 3 6 consumer prices abroad annual percentage change
Figure 3.6. Consumer prices abroadAnnual percentage change

Note: This refers to HICP for the euro area and CPI for the USA and the UK.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics

figure 3 7 government bonds with 10 years left to maturity per cent
Figure 3.7. Government bonds with 10 years left to maturityPer cent

Source: Reuters EcoWin

figure 3 8 government bonds with 10 years left to maturity per cent
Figure 3.8. Government bonds with 10 years left to maturityPer cent

Source: Reuters EcoWin

figure 3 9 stock market movements index 3 january 2006 100
Figure 3.9. Stock market movementsIndex, 3 January 2006 = 100

Sources: Morgan Stanley Capital International, Reuters EcoWin, Standard & Poor's and STOXX Limited

figure 3 10 stock market volatility per cent
Figure 3.10. Stock market volatilityPer cent

Note. Implicit volatility is estimated on the basis of index-linked option prices.

Sources: Chicago Board Option Exchange, Reuters EcoWin and STOXX Limited

figure 3 11 commodity prices index 2005 100 usd and usd per barrel
Figure 3.11. Commodity pricesIndex 2005 = 100, USD and USD per barrel

Sources: The Economist and Intercontinental Exchange

figure 3 12 tcw weighted nominal exchange rate index 18 november 1992 100
Figure 3.12. TCW-weighted nominal exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100

Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.

Source: The Riksbank

slide60
Figure 3.13. Repo rate expectations in Sweden measured as market prices and survey, money market playersPer cent

Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.

Sources: Reuters EcoWin, TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank

slide61
Figure 3.14. Policy rate expectations measured in terms of market prices in the euro area and the USAPer cent

Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate, which is not always equivalent to the official policy rate.

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

figure 3 15 interest rates in sweden per cent
Figure 3.15. Interest rates in SwedenPer cent

Note. Refers to average of three-month listed mortgage rates from banks and mortgage institutions. Listed mortgage rates are the rates published by Nordea, SBAB, SEB, Swedbank Hypotek and Stadshypotek, for example in the daily press.

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

figure 3 16 bank lending to companies and households annual percentage change
Figure 3.16. Bank lending to companies and householdsAnnual percentage change

Source: Statistics Sweden

figure 3 17 housing prices index 2008 100
Figure 3.17. Housing pricesIndex, 2008 = 100

Note. The data from Valueguard is on a monthly rate and the data from Statistics Sweden is on a quarterly rate. Statistics Sweden’s real estate price index is based on land registration data, while Valueguard’s index is based on purchasing contracts. Purchasing contracts are normally registered about two months before land registration, which means that SCB’s statistics lag behind the statistics from Valueguard.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and Valueguard

slide65
Figure 3.18. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data

Source: Statistics Sweden

figure 3 19 production export of goods and the retail sector index 2007 100
Figure 3.19. Production, export of goods and the retail sectorIndex, 2007 = 100

Source: Statistics Sweden

figure 3 20 the economic tendency indicator index mean 100 standard deviation 10
Figure 3.20. The Economic Tendency IndicatorIndex, mean = 100, standard deviation = 10

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

figure 3 21 new export orders net figures and annual percentage change
Figure 3.21. New export ordersNet figures and annual percentage change

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

figure 3 22 capacity utilisation in industry per cent seasonally adjusted data
Figure 3.22. Capacity utilisation in industryPer cent, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

figure 3 23 confidence indicators for houeholds net figures
Figure 3.23. Confidence indicators for houeholdsNet figures

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

slide71
Figure 3.24. Employment, labour force and unemploymentThousands and percentage of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data

Note. Three-month moving averages.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide72
Figure 3.25. Employees in the business sector, expectations and outcomeSeasonally-adjusted net figures

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

slide73
Figure 3.26. Proportion of companies reporting a shortage of labourPer cent, seasonally-adjusted data

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

figure 3 27 cpi cpif and cpif excluding energy annual percentage change
Figure 3.27. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change

Note. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate.

Source: Statistics Sweden

figure 3 28 all respondents expectations of inflation one two and five years ahead per cent
Figure 3.28. All respondents' expectations of inflation one, two and five years aheadPer cent

Source: TNS SIFO Prospera

figure 3 29 expectations of inflation one year ahead per cent
Figure 3.29. Expectations of inflation one year aheadPer cent

Note. Company figures are quarterly, others monthly.

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and TNS SIFO Prospera

figure a1 weighting for various countries in hicp for the euro area per cent
Figure A1. Weighting for various countries in HICP for the euro areaPer cent

Note. Average for 1999-2008 apart from Greece, where the average is for 2001-2008.

Source: Eurostat

figure a2 development of gdp index 2000 100
Figure A2. Development of GDPIndex, 2000 = 100

Sources: Eurostat and national statistics agencies

figure a3 government bonds with 10 years to maturity per cent
Figure A3. Government bonds with 10 years to maturityPer cent

Note. The vertical broken lines illustrate the point in time, January 1, 1999, when the euro was introduced as an electronic currency and January 1, 2002, when the euro was introduced as bills and coins.

Source: Reuters EcoWin

figure a4 current account balance per cent of gdp
Figure A4. Current account balancePer cent of GDP

Note. Broken lines represents the European Commission's forecast.

Source: European Commission

figure a5 average gross public debt and net lending average 1997 2007 percentage of gdp
Figure A5. Average gross public debt and net lending, average 1997-2007Percentage of GDP

Note. The broken lines indicate the criteria of the Stability and Growth Pact, according to which public debt may amount to a maximum of 60 per cent of GDP and the deficit to a maximum of 3 per cent of GDP.

Source: European Commission

figure a6 public debt percentage of gdp
Figure A6. Public debtPercentage of GDP

Note. Broken lines represents the European Commission's forecast.

Source: European Commission

figure a7 large euro countrie s bank exposure to giips countries percentage of gdp 2011 q2
Figure A7. Large euro countrie's bank exposure to GIIPS countriesPercentage of GDP, 2011 Q2

Note. The GIIPS countries consist of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. The data relates to the exposures of banks with international operations to counterparties outside their own countries, according to reporting to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The figure shows, for example, that the exposures of French banks to Italy correspond to 10-20 per cent of GDP, and that the exposures of German banks to Spain correspond to 5-10 per cent of GDP.

Source: BIS

figure a8 unit labour costs in relation to the euro average percentage change since 1997
Figure A8. Unit labour costs in relation to the euro averagePercentage change since 1997

Source: OECD

figure a9 public net lending cyclically adjusted per cent of potential gdp
Figure A9. Public net lending (cyclically adjusted)Per cent of potential GDP

Note. Figures for 2011 are forecasts from the IMF.

Source: IMF

figure a10 gdp per cent of world gdp current prices usd
Figure A10. GDPPer cent of world GDP, current prices, USD

Note. The sample of emerging economies comprises Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Philippines, India, Indonesia, China, Malaysia, Peru, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and Uruguay. The broken line represents the IMF’s forecast.

Source: The IMF

figure a11 share of international trade per cent of world trade current prices
Figure A11. Share of international tradePer cent of world trade, current prices

Note. EU4 is France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. The broken line represents the OECD’s forecast.

Source: OECD

slide88

Figure A12. India’s and China’s exports per recipient countriesPercentage of the country’s total exports, current prices, twelve-month moving average

Note. ASEAN stands for the Association of Souteast Asian Nations.

Sources: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India, National Bureau of Statistics, China och Reserve Bank of India

figure a13 imports index 2000 100
Figure A13. ImportsIndex, 2000 = 100

Note. Emerging economies defined by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

slide90

Figure A14. Sweden’s goods exports per a sample of recipient countries Percentage of Sweden’s total exports of goods, current prices, twelve-month moving average

Note. The sample of emerging economies comprises Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Philippines, India, Indonesia, China, Malaysia, Peru, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey.

Source: Statistics Sweden

slide91
Figure A15. GDP growth TCW and BRIC, and growth in Swedish exportsAnnual percentage change, annual averages

Note. The BRIC countries consist of Brazil, Russia, India and China. The IMF’s forecast for Brazil, India and Russia. The BRIC countries are weighted with purchasing-power adjusted GDP weights.

Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank

figure a16 inflation in the bric countries annual percentage change
Figure A16. Inflation in the BRIC countriesAnnual percentage change

Note. The BRIC countries consist of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Sources: Federal State Statistics Service, Russia, National Bureau of Statistics of China, OECD and Office of the Economic Adviser to the Government of India

slide93
Figure A17. Rates for new mortgage agreements for households and the repo ratePer cent, monthly averages

Note. Variable mortgage rate refers to fixed terms of up to and including three months, short fixed mortgage rate refers to fixed terms longer than three months and up to and including one year and long fixed mortgage rate refers to fixed terms longer than one year and up to and including five years. The final observation refers to December.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure a18 fixed periods for new mortgages per cent monthly averages
Figure A18. Fixed periods for new mortgagesPer cent, monthly averages

Note. Mortgage institutions’ new loans to households per fixed-rate term. The final outcome refers to December 2011.

Source: Statistics Sweden

figure a19 average mortgage rates for households per cent monthly averages
Figure A19. Average mortgage rates for householdsPer cent, monthly averages

Note. The final outcome refers to December 2011.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure a20 funding of sweden s mortgage stock billions sek
Figure A20. Funding of Sweden’s mortgage stockBillions, SEK

Note. November 2011.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure a21 division of three month mortgage rate per cent
Figure A21. Division of three-month mortgage ratePer cent

Note. Refers to average of listed mortgage rates from banks and mortgage institutions. Listed mortgage rates are the rates published by Nordea, SBAB, SEB, Swedbank Hypotek and Stadshypotek, for example in the daily press. In this example, the margin consists of other costs associated with mortgages and a profit margin.

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

slide98

Figure A22. Average mortgage rates for households and bank interest rates for companies on new agreements, and the repo ratePer cent, monthly averages

Note. In the grey line, the households’ average interest rate is weighted by the percentage of loans to households, and the companies’ average interest rate is weighted by the percentage of loans to companies. In December, the percentage of loans to households and companies amounted to 60 and 40 per cent, respectively. The final observation refers to December 2011.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

table 2 inflation annual percentage change annual average
Table 2. Inflation Annual percentage change, annual average

Note. The rate of change in the CPI is based on revised index figures, which may differ from the established index figures. CPIF is the CPI with fixed mortgage rate. HICP is an EU harmonised index of consumer prices.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

table 3 summary of financial forecasts annual average per cent unless otherwise stated
Table 3. Summary of financial forecastsAnnual average, per cent, unless otherwise stated

* Per cent of GDP

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

table 4 international conditions annual percentage change unless otherwise stated
Table 4. International conditionsAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated

Note. The figures in parentheses indicate the global purchasing-power adjusted GDP-weights, according to the IMF, 2010. The Swedish export market index is calculated as a weighted average of the imports of the 15 countries which are the largest recipients of Swedish exports. They receive approximately 70 per cent of Swedish exports. The weight assigned to a country is its share of Swedish exports of goods.

Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank

table 5 gdp by expenditure annual percentage change unless otherwise stated
Table 5. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated

*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

Note. The figures show actual growth rates that have not been calendar-adjusted, unless otherwise stated. NA is the National Accounts.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

table 6 production and employment annual percentage change unless otherwise stated
Table 6. Production and employment Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated

* Per cent of labour force

Note. Potential hours refers to the long-term

sustainable level for the number of hours worked.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide106
Table 7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data

* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points.

Note. NMO is the National Mediation Office’s short-term wage statistics and NA is the National Accounts. Labour cost per hour is defined as the sum of actual wages, collective charges and wage taxes divided by the seasonally-adjusted total number of hours worked. Unit labour cost is defined as labour cost divided by seasonally adjusted value added at constant prices.

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide107

Table 8. Alternative scenario: weaker krona and weaker development abroadAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average

Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario. TCW-weighted foreign variables. CPIF is the CPI with fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide108

Table 9. Alternative scenario: stronger krona and weaker development abroadAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average

Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario. CPIF is the CPI with fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide109

Table 10. Alternative scenario: stronger krona, weaker development abroad and binding zero restrictionAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average

Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario. CPIF is the CPI with fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide110

Table 11. Alternative scenario: weaker krona and stronger development abroadAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average

Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario. TCW-weighted foreign variables. CPIF is the CPI with fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide111
Table 12. Alternative scenario: higher repo rateAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average

* Per cent of labour force

Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario. CPIF is the CPI with fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide112
Table 13. Alternative scenario: lower repo rateAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average

* Per cent of labour force

Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario. CPIF is the CPI with fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank