Introduction. Climate Future: Science and Policy Randall M. Dole NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center. Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium Lake Tahoe, CA May 25, 2004. A Key Symposium Goal. Key Symposium Goal.
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Climate Future: Science and Policy
Randall M. Dole
NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center
Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium
Lake Tahoe, CA
May 25, 2004
Key Symposium Goal
Develop support for long-term, interdisciplinary, integrated climate and climate-related research and monitoring in the western mountains.
How might this accomplished in the present budget environment?
Strategies for Success
1) Make explicit connections to goals in the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) strategic plan.
Overarching question: How will variability and potential change in climate and related systems affect climate and related systems and our way of life?
CCSP Goals related to MCSS:
4) Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes.
Core Approach:Develop improved science-based resources for decision-
CCSP Research elements especially relevant to the MCSS:
A few examples
From the Climate Variability and Change chapter, some MCSS-related issues:
Potential for changes in extreme events at regional to local scales.
Possibility of abrupt change.
Development of approaches to inform decision-making.
2) Consider focusing issues
Dillon Reservoir, Colorado
Lake Powell Water Level (ft)
Glen Canyon Dam
US Bureau of Reclamation analysis of potential water supply crises and conflicts by the year 2025 based on a combination of technical and other factors, including population trends and potential endangered species needs for water.
Note:There is an underlying assumption of a statistically stationary climate.
Observed trends are consistent with trends obtained in climate
models forced by observed GHG changes. However, models forced by observed SST over this period also show warming, so both anthropogenic and natural factors are likely contributing.
From Stewart, Cayan, and Dettinger (2004)
There is a marked trend toward an earlier melt out and earlier peak flows throughout almost all of the West, consistent with a winter warming trend. Such warming increases evaporation, extends the growing season, and likely also increases the demand for water resources.
What would a warmer future climate imply for the mountainous west and adjacent regions, e.g., for water resources, ecosystems, recreation?
Western fires, 2002
Retreat of South Cascade Glacier, Washington
3) Make connections to other ongoing priorities, such as natural disaster reduction, observations. Examples: Drought, COOP modernization (both have NOAA, USDA attention).
4) Focus on key regional issues.
5) Consider multiple stressors.
Above all, aim toward end products that improve decision support and demonstrate value to taxpayers.