Natural gas in the german residential commercial market
Download
1 / 21

Natural Gas in the German Residential & Commercial Market - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 96 Views
  • Uploaded on

Natural Gas in the German Residential & Commercial Market. Gas Industry mCHP Workshop Paris, 29 – 30 May 2008 Stephan Ramesohl (Dr.-Ing.) E.ON Ruhrgas AG. Key Questions. What is the current situation? How does the framework change?

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Natural Gas in the German Residential & Commercial Market' - lynsey


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Natural gas in the german residential commercial market

Natural Gas in the GermanResidential & Commercial Market

Gas Industry mCHP WorkshopParis, 29 – 30 May 2008

Stephan Ramesohl (Dr.-Ing.)E.ON Ruhrgas AG


Key questions
Key Questions

  • What is the current situation?

  • How does the framework change?

  • Which are the consequences from using natural gas inthe residential & commercial market?

  • Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?

  • Which opportunities does mCHP offer?


New buildings overall downward trend with declining market share

2030

New Buildings – Overall Downward Trend With Declining Market Share

  • apartments

2006:

140,000 homes

w/natural gas

Forecast for 2030: -50%;

of which 50% w/natural gas

Source: state officies of statistics inclusing federal states from 1991


Loss in market shares as a result of upcoming competition

50,000

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

1/05

2/05

3/05

4/05

1/06

2/06

3/06

4/06

1/07

2/07

3/07

Nat gas

Electric heat pumps

Wood pellet boilers

Fuel oil

Others

Loss in Market Shares as a Result of Upcoming Competition

Market shares space heating/hot water absolute

Source: E.ON Ruhrgas


But existing homes remaining core market with high energy requirements
But: Existing Homes Remaining Core Market with High Energy Requirements

Heat demand

High energy requirements of existing homes in the long term

Share of homes [%]


Existing residential buildings in germany
Existing Residential Buildings in Germany

  • Total residential buildings: 17.7 million

  • Total apartments: 39.0 million

  • 31 Dec 2006, Federal Office of Statistics

  • Large potential for technologies involving renewable energies


The gas customer s voice rising demand for renewable energies in existing homes
The Gas Customer‘s Voice: Rising Demand for Renewable Energies in Existing Homes

20%

Natural gas users increasinglyshifting their focus torenewable energies

Risk of losingapprox. 5.7 bn m³/a

15%

10%

5%

58 %

60 %

59 %

64 %

61 %

60 %

58 %

78 %

87 %

0%

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: E.ON Ruhrgas


Key questions1
Key Questions

  • What is the current situation?

  • How does the framework change?

  • Which are the consequences from using natural gas inthe residential & commercial market?

  • Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?

  • Which opportunities does mCHP offer?


Driver 1 uncertain trend in energy prices
Driver 1: Uncertain Trend in Energy Prices

?

Extra-light fuel oil

Natural gas

Dynamic developmentin particular for gas/oil

?

Electricity

Source: Federal Ministry of Economics


Driver 2 energy and climate policy meseberg package
Driver 2: Energy and Climate Policy (Meseberg Package):

14 out of 29 measures relevant to natural gas, residential and commercial (R & C) premium markets strongly affected

(10) EnEV 

(11) Betriebskosten Mietwohnungen

(12) CO2-Gebäude- Sanierungsprg. 

(13) Energetische Modernisierung v. soz. Infrastruktur

(14) EEWärmeG 

(15) Energetische Sanierung v. Bundesgebäuden

(6) Einführung moderner Energie- management- systeme (14) EEWärmeG 

Sector-specific

(18) Umstellung Kfz-St. auf CO2-Basis

(1) KWK 

(2) Ausbau EE-Strom

(3) CO2-arme KW-Technologien

others: 15%

R & C: 46%

Industry: 25%

power: 14%

Share 2006 [%]

  • (7) Förderprogramme für Klimaschutz und Energieeffizienz …

  • (9) Einspeiseregelung für Biogas in Erdgasnetze 

  • (25) Energieforschung und Innovation

Affecting allsectors


Most important consequences of meseberg package in residential commercial market date jan 2008
Most Important Consequences of Meseberg Package in Residential & Commercial Market (Date: Jan 2008)

Amended EnEV* (new buildings) 2009 (and possibly 2012)

More stringent limit values for primaryenergy requirements -30% each

2009: knock-out criterion for gas condensing boiler

2012: knock-out criterion for gas condensing boiler + solar

  • Renewable Energies Heat Act (currently only new buildings)

  • Compliance options

  • Solar (4% collector area/m2 useful area)  Gas condensing boiler + solar

  • Electric heat pump (>50%, min 3.3/4.0) Problematic for some EHPs.

  • Gas heat pump (>50%, COPmin 1.2)  OK, achievable with gas heat pump

  • Bio oil (>50%, in condensing appliance) .

  • Biomethane (>50%, only CHP)  Discrimination against biomethane

  • µCHP  Possibly incentive for µCHP .

  • (Mandatory) connection to group/district heat  Discrimination against gas (w/renewable energies/CHP).

  • Additional efficiency (-15% vs. EnEV*) .


Key questions2
Key Questions Residential & Commercial Market

  • What is the current situation?

  • How does the framework change?

  • Which are the consequences from using natural gas inthe residential & commercial market?

  • Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?

  • Which opportunities does mCHP offer?


Consequences
Consequences Residential & Commercial Market

  • Gas condensing technology alone no option in future for new buildings

    • Take proactive steps to secure position of natural gas in new buildings as a trend market

    • Goal: Defend nationwide gas supplies – object to extreme political stance (no natural gas in new buildings from 2020)

    • Establish new technology options

  • Existing buildings continue to be mass market with (so far) relatively free choice of technology

    • Condensing boilers to be developed further as the basic technology with a focus on existing homes(costs , condensing boiler/solar, biomethane)

    • Sales lost as a result of improved efficiencies/renewable energies to be compensated for by substitution of fuel oilFocus: customers with service connection as target group


  • Key questions3
    Key Questions Residential & Commercial Market

    • What is the current situation?

    • How does the framework change?

    • Which are the consequences from using natural gas inthe residential & commercial market?

    • Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?

    • Which opportunities does mCHP offer?


    Strategic answer part 1 expand technology portfolio combine natural gas and renewable energies
    Strategic Answer, Part 1: Residential & Commercial Market Expand Technology Portfolio - Combine Natural Gas and Renewable Energies

    Highly efficientcondensing heatingsystems (existing)

    Solar & gascondensing boiler

    Naturalgas

    Bio-methane

    Gas heat pump

    to use ambient heat


    Strategic answer part 2 expand technology portfolio combine heat and power

    hocheffiziente Residential & Commercial Market Brennwertheizungen(Bestand)

    Solarthermie &Gas-Brennwertkessel

    Umweltwärme durchGaswärmepumpe

    Strategic Answer, Part 2:Expand Technology Portfolio - Combine Heat and Power

    Highly efficientcondensing heatingsystems (existing)

    Solar & gascondensing boiler

    Naturalgas

    Bio-methane

    Gas heat pumpto use ambient heat

    (Micro) CHP


    Key questions4
    Key Questions Residential & Commercial Market

    • What is the current situation?

    • How does the framework change?

    • Which are the consequences from using natural gas inthe residential & commercial market?

    • Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?

    • Which opportunities does mCHP offer?


    Natural gas in the german residential commercial market
    Natural Gas-Based CHP to Curb CO Residential & Commercial Market 2 EmissionsExisting single-family home as an example (annual heat + power balance)

    14.00

    12.00

    10.00

    CO2 emissions in t/a

    8.00

    6.00

    4.00

    2.00

    e = 40%

    e = 32%

    e = 38%

    0.00

    district heat

    gas condensing

    gas condensing

    packaged CHP

    micro CHP

    micro CHP

    boiler

    boiler

    (group heat)

    (optimised)

    coal

    power with combined-cycle

    power mix D


    Opportunity mchp to increase gas sales

    Supplies Residential & Commercial Market

    MFH

    MFH

    Supplies

    Gas: 97,000 kWh

    Gas: 69,000 kWh

    Electricity: 20,000 kWh

    Electricity: 42,000 kWh

    BW

    µKWK

    Gas

    + 28,000 kWh

    + 40%

    - 22,000 kWh

    Grid electricity

    Opportunity: mCHP to Increase Gas Sales

    EFH

    Supplies

    EFH

    Supplies

    Gas: 26,000 kWh

    Gas: 21,000 kWh

    BW

    Electricity: 1.500 kWh

    µKWK

    Gas

    + 5,000 kWh

    + 25%

    Electricity: 4,400 kWh

    Grid electricity

    - 2,900 kWh


    Requirements for mchp under renewable energies heat act stirling concepts on the edge
    Requirements for mCHP under Renewable Energies Heat Act Residential & Commercial Market Stirling concepts on the edge?

    EWärmeG(BaWü)

    electr. power ratio [-]

    EEWärmeG(Bund)

    Threshold value:

    15% primary energy savingscompared to grid electricity and condensing boiler

    total efficiency [%]


    There is a future for natural gas in the domestic sector but not this one
    There is a future for natural gas in the domestic sector – Residential & Commercial Market but not this one …

    No solar panel,

    no wall insulation –let‘s go …. !

    DIE ZEIT, 11 Oct 2007