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Seminar on “From OAA to Old Age Income Protection ”

Seminar on “From OAA to Old Age Income Protection ”. BY STUART H. LECKIE, O.B.E., J.P., F.F.A., F.I.A., F.S.A. CHAIRMAN, STIRLING FINANCE LIMITED TEL: (852) 2147 9998 FAX: (852) 2147 2822 E-mail: stuart.leckie@stirlingfinance.com Hong Kong 25 April 2008. Overview.

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Seminar on “From OAA to Old Age Income Protection ”

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  1. Seminar on “From OAA to Old Age Income Protection” BY STUART H. LECKIE, O.B.E., J.P., F.F.A., F.I.A., F.S.A. CHAIRMAN, STIRLING FINANCE LIMITED TEL: (852) 2147 9998 FAX: (852) 2147 2822 E-mail: stuart.leckie@stirlingfinance.com Hong Kong 25 April 2008

  2. Overview • Demographics of the World, China and Hong Kong 世界，中國和香港的人口狀況 • World Bank 5-Pillar Pension Model 世界銀行五大支柱養老金模式 • World Bank Criteria for Assessing a Pension System 世界銀行衡量養老金體制的標準 • Evaluating Hong Kong’s Pension System 評估香港養老金體制 • Evaluating China’s Pension System 評估中國養老金體制 • The Perfect Pension System 完美的養老金體制 • Conclusions 結論

  3. Life Expectancy 90 86.2 85 82.2 78.7 80 74.6 73.0 75 72.0 70 67.2 63.2 65 58.3 60 55 50 45 40 World China Hong Kong 1970 2005 2040 Demographic Changes Pose Challenges人口結構變化帶來的考驗 預計壽命 總出生率 Source: UN Population Division 資料來源：聯合國人口司

  4. Demographic Changes Pose Challenges人口結構變化帶來的考驗 老齡贍養比 60歲以上人口的佔比 Source: UN Population Division 資料來源：聯合國人口司

  5. The Original World Bank 3-Pillar Pension Model最初的世界銀行3大支柱養老金模式 • The original World Bank pension model in 1994 comprised 3 pillars • 1994年最初的世界銀行養老金模式包括三大支柱

  6. The Extended 5-Pillar Pension Model拓展後的五大支柱養老金模式 • Based on pension reform experience in the 1990s, World Bank now advocates a 5-Pillar pension model, adding Pillar Zero and Pillar IV. • 在20世紀90年代養老金體制改革的經驗基礎上，世界銀行在原模式中加入支柱零及支柱四，推出了現有的五大支柱養老金模式

  7. WB Criteria for An EffectivePension System世界銀行對養老金體制有效性的衡量標準 • While recognising that each country’s unique conditions will require it to adapt the model, the World Bank does suggest 4 criteria to measure the effectiveness of a country’s pension system • 世界銀行針對該模型需適應各個國家的獨特狀況的情形，提出了衡量國家養老金體制有效性的4大標準

  8. Two Aspects of Pension System養老金體制的兩方面 • Design • 框架設計 • Is the design conducive to an adequate, affordable, sustainable and robust system?框架設計是否有利於架構一個充足的、可承擔的、可持續的、穩健的的養老金體制？ • Funding • 資金積累 • For funded pillars, are they fully funded, properly managed, and safe-guarded against undue interference?資金積累型的支柱是否為全額積累，是否管理適當，是否免受不當干擾 • Also consider 2 phases – accumulation and distribution • 還要考慮兩個階段：積累階段和發放階段

  9. The 5-Pillar System in Hong Kong Context香港體制裏的該五大支柱

  10. The 5-Pillar System in Hong Kong Context (Cont’d)香港體制中的該五大支柱（續） • NOAA and HOAA, at HK$625 and HK$705 per month, are grossly insufficient 普通高齡津貼和高額高齡津貼，每月分別為625港幣及705港幣，是很不夠的 • ORSO and MPF are the two types of funded pension system in Hong Kong 職業退休計劃和強積金是香港的兩大資金積累型的養老金體系 • Under current rules, assuming 5% net of fees return, 5% salary increases, and a 35 year work life, MPF can provide less than 30% replacement income for retirees 在現有制度下，假設有5%的費用後年淨收益及5%收入年增幅，工作35年後，強積金只能為退休者提供低於30%的替代收入

  11. General Comments on the MPF關於強積金的總體評價 • MPF has been successful as a compulsory savings scheme for the employed population 強積金作為一個受僱傭群體的強制性儲蓄計劃是成功的 • High compliance rate 高參與率 • Investment choice 投資選擇 • No scandals沒有醜聞 BUT 但是

  12. General Comments on the MPF (Cont’d)關於強積金的總體評價（續） • Design of MPF needs improvement 強積金的框架設計需要改進 • Lump sum payment at retirement, not monthly income 退休時一次性付款，而不是按月發放 • Retirees will have to bear the longevity risk, inflation risk and risk of poor investments退休人員需要承擔長壽風險，通貨膨脹風險及低回報風險 • Insufficient contributions will lead to insufficient replacement ratio at retirement不足的供款會導致退休時不充足的替代率 • Investment scope too rigid – excludesmainland China, alternatives, etc. Consider “home bias” 投資範圍太嚴格 – 不允許投資中國大陸，另類投資。“本國偏好” • No tax incentive for voluntary contributions自願供款不享受稅收鼓勵 • Insisting that capital preservation funds be offered makes no sense堅持提供保本基金沒有意義 • Long term, investing in capital preservation funds => losing value 長期投資於保本基金 => 損失

  13. How Does Hong Kong Measure Up?香港是否達標？ • Measured against World Bank’s criteria, HK’s retirement system falls short in effectiveness • 對照世界銀行的標準，香港的退休金體制缺乏有效性

  14. The 5-Pillar System in China Context中國體制裏的該五大支柱 • New Unified Pension System Reform • 新的、統一的養老體制改革 • Document 26 -July 1997 • 26號文件 – 1997年7月 • Document 38 – December 2005 • 38號文件– 2005年12月 • Expand coverage to all urban employees • 將範圍擴展至所有城市雇員 • National Social Security Fund (NSSF) established in 2000 as a strategic reserve • 作為戰略儲備的全國社會保障基金於2000年成立

  15. The 5-Pillar System in China Context (Cont’d)中國體制裏的該五大支柱（續）

  16. Pension Reforms in China - Contributions and Benefits中國的養老金體制改革 – 供款及收益

  17. Pillar II - Enterprise Annuities支柱II - 企業年金 • Voluntary supplementary plans set up by employers according to MoLSS Regulations 20 and 23 in 2004 根據2004年勞動部第20及23號令，由僱主設立的自發的輔助計劃 • Tax concessions to encourage EAs not yet finalised 鼓勵企業年金的稅收政策還沒有最終敲定 • Conversion of non-EA supplementary plans to EA format,e.g.: after Shanghai Scandal 非企業年金的輔助計劃向企業年金模式的轉換 （上海社保基金案以後） • EA licenses - 12 Trustees 12家託管人 企業年金牌照 - 18 Administrators 18家帳戶管理人 - 21 Investment Managers 21家投資管理人 - 10 Custodians 10家受託人

  18. How Does China Measure Up?中國是否達標？ • China’s retirement system appears capable of providing adequate retirement income, but uncertainties in many aspects remain • 雖然中國的退休金體制似乎已足夠提供充足的退休收入，但在很多方面還存在很多不確定因素

  19. General Comments on China’s Pension System對中國養老體制的總體評價 • Has come a long way since Document 26 in 1997 自1997年26號文件起，已經有了長足進步 • In general basic design is sound, however implementation remains an issue 總的來說，基本框架很堅實，但具體執行還存在問題 • Empty accounts for Individual Accounts個人帳戶空帳問題 • Expansion to rural population a necessity發展農村養老金的必要性 • Pension governance issues養老金治理問題 • Improvements needed to further refine the system 現行體制需要進一步地改進 • Individual accounts: broaden investment scope and outsource to private sector? 個人帳戶：是否需要拓寬投資領域，尋求私有部門管理？ • EA: clarify tax situation：企業年金：澄清稅收制度 • EA: promulgate master trust rules to encourage SME participation企業年金：制定集合信託計劃制度，鼓勵中小企業參與 • Must gradually raise retirement age 必須逐步提高退休年齡

  20. Summary總結 • Measured against the World Bank system and criteria: • 對照世界銀行體制及標準： • Both need to continue with their reform efforts • 都需要繼續加強改革 • Future cooperation between HK and China: portability of benefits given increased number of employees working across the border增強香港與大陸之間的合作；兩岸僱員跨境就業日益增多，應考慮收益的可攜性

  21. Perfect Pension System完美的養老體制 • Integrated long-term approach to ensure adequate retirement income 走長期綜合路線，確保充足的退休收入 • Recognises changing employment structure, family patterns and personal interest 識別不斷變化的僱傭結構，家庭模式及個人利益 • Maximizes coverage and participation 使覆蓋率和參與率最大化 • Leads to savings culture by individuals 培養個人儲蓄風氣 • Increases national savings and economic growth 推動國家儲蓄及經濟發展 • Has widespread support from community and policy makers 受到社會及政策制定方的普遍支持 • Has effective regulatory structure 具有有效的監管構架 • Is simple to understand 簡單易懂

  22. Thank You！ 謝謝！ Questions? 歡迎提問 “This is not the End or the Beginning of the End, but may be the End of the Beginning!” 這不是一個結尾，也不是結尾的開始， 或許只是一個開始的結尾！

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