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This text explores the complexities of uncertainty in environmental science, particularly in the context of restoring goods and services affected by climate change and natural processes. It differentiates between known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns, and discusses their implications for scientists, the public, and policymakers. The challenges of abrupt vs. predictable changes and the importance of both bottom-up and top-down management strategies are highlighted, emphasizing the need for adaptive management in the face of uncertainty.
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Uncertainty There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.
Restoration of Goods and Services Smooth Abrupt (predictable) (less predictable) Reversible Irreversible (Sensible) (“Hysterical”) Bottom-up Top-down (Climate, natural (Man-induced delta cycles) wetland loss) Control Adaptive Management ? Adapt
Uncertainty What does it mean to scientists? What does it mean to the lay public? What does it mean to policy makers? You can’t handle the truth!!Jack Nicholson in “A Few Good Men”
