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ARCs Council

ARCs Council. Tallahassee, Florida 21 October 2007. Agenda. Introductions and background Review of recent progress (5 min each)  Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) COAPS (Florida State U) COLA CSES ARC (U Washington) ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego)

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ARCs Council

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  1. ARCs Council Tallahassee, Florida 21 October 2007

  2. Agenda • Introductions and background • Review of recent progress (5 min each)  • Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) • COAPS (Florida State U) • COLA • CSES ARC (U Washington) • ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego) • Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP) • Next steps to take as a group contributing to  • the CTB • the reanalysis and attribution project of CDEP • other program elements in the NOAA Climate Program • Balance among these three (Ropelewski) • any other items requiring discussion

  3. Agenda • Introductions and background • Review of recent progress (5 min each)  • Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) • COAPS (Florida State U) • COLA • CSES ARC (U Washington) • ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego) • Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP) • Next steps to take as a group contributing to  • the CTB • the reanalysis and attribution project of CDEP • other program elements in the NOAA Climate Program • Balance among these three (Ropelewski) • any other items requiring discussion

  4. NOAA Applied Research Centers (ARCs) and CTB • The NOAA Applied Research Centers (ARCs) conduct mission-oriented applied R&D with stable funding under five-year renewable institutional awards. Each Center has a unique capability to contribute to the NOAA Climate Program’s objectives. (from CPO: http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/cdep/) • The ARCs collaborate with CTB to accelerate transition of new and improved science-driven climate forecast & analysis products into operations (R2O) with emphasis on specific CPC product ranges (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal) (from CTB Interim Report 2007) • The ARCs are also beginning a new activity to enable the research community to make use of CTB models (O2R) • ARCs: • Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) • COAPS (Florida State U) • COLA • CSES ARC (U Washington) • ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego) • Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP)

  5. Review of Recent Progress • Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) • COAPS (Florida State U) • COLA • CSES ARC (U Washington) • ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego) • Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP)

  6. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) • Vision: Global society benefits from use-inspired basic research on climate variability, predictability, & change and free access to research data & tools • Mission: Explore, establish and quantify the predictability of seasonal to decadal variability in a changing climate • Support: COLA is a part of IGES, an independent non-profit institute, and is supported by NSF (lead), NOAA and NASA through a single jointly-peer-reviewed, jointly-funded five-year “omnibus” proposal (current: 2004-2008) • Core Competencies: • Evaluation of and experimentation with Nation’s climate models • Scientific leadership in S-I predictability • Collaboration with PhD program in Climate Dynamics at GMU • GrADS and GDS - highly-valued, widely-used information technology • Accomplishments: • COLA viewed as major interagency program (e.g. US National Research Council report) • Quantified dynamical model seasonal prediction (DSP) capability • Advanced multi-model ensemble • Demonstrated that O-A and L-A interactions, with high-frequency noise and low-frequency climate change, play important roles to enhance predictability • Developed innovative modeling, data analysis and information theory-based strategies for understanding predictability and improving prediction http://www.iges.org Jim Kinter

  7. Jan ICs 1982-2000 COLA Contributions to CDEP • Current • CFS experiments • 10 COLA scientists, 2 PhD students and 1 summer intern active CFS users • Diagnose/model initial tendency errors in GFS/CFS (DelSole CTB project) • Interactive Ensemble version (noise control & predictability) • Potential predictability of intraseasonal variability • Coupled initialization (nudging, anomaly init.) • Pacemaker: ENSO & ENSO-monsoon relationship • Stratospheric simulation (imposed QBO) • Bias, bias correction & skill in Atlantic, Pacific • Multi-model experiments • CCSM proof-of-concept http://www.iges.org Jim Kinter

  8. COLA Contributions to CTB • Planned • Multi-model R2O • CCSM transition to operations (CTB proposal) • GFDL CM2.1 transition to operations (collaboration with GFDL) • GMAO forecast diagnosis (R2O in discussion) • O2R - support for CFS and other models • Initial focus on land surface models (tentative) http://www.iges.org Jim Kinter

  9. Joint CTB-COLA Seminar Series • CFS as a Prediction System and Research Tool • Initially being established by NCEP and COLA • Will expand to include the broader climate community • 12 scheduled through Feb’08 (6 at COLA, 6 at NCEP) • Seminars at NCEP will be coordinated with CTB “Test and Evaluation Team” meetings • Future Foci: • Multi-Model Ensembles • Climate forecast product improvements

  10. Agenda • Introductions and background • Review of recent progress (5 min each)  • Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) • COAPS (Florida State U) • COLA • CSES ARC (U Washington) • ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego) • Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP) • Next steps to take as a group contributing to  • the CTB • the reanalysis and attribution project of CDEP • other program elements in the NOAA Climate Program • Balance among these three (Ropelewski) • any other items requiring discussion

  11. Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O). Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer feedback; Bring in customer requests 4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A). 5. Delivery of products to the diverse community and customer feedback 2 R2O NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infra-structure for the transition processes N C E P 1 R&D Community CTB CPC O2R 3 EMC CFS OPERATIONS 4 R2O O2A User Community 5 CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)

  12. Schematics in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Effort Service Centers Field Offices EMC NOAA Research NCO EMC ASI, COLA, ARCS Observation System Service Centers Life cycle Support User OPS Test Beds JCSDA CTB DTC JHT R&D Operations Delivery Operations to Research Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

  13. NOAA ARCs Virtual Climate Modeling Center - A Proposal CD-ARC COAPS CTB COLA NOAA Ops NCEP ECPC Need to define: Science focus of each What flows along lines Why VO improves on status quo UW-ARC

  14. Can be accomplished (case by case): • With little or no changes • With minor adjustments in focus • With new funds VO definitions • Science foci • CD-ARC • Week2-to-seasonal, focused on drought and regional products  CFS as a tool? • Attribution and 100-year reanalysis • COAPS • Hybrid coordinate ocean model  HYCOM in CFS? • SE-US regional and agriculture sectoral applications • COLA • Predictability • MME with National models (CFS, CCSM, GFDL, GMAO) • ECPC • Regional modeling and reanalysis  RSM (WRF??) in CFS? • California regional applications • UW-ARC • Hydrological forecasting  VIC in CFS? • Pacific NW regional applications • Flowing along lines • Data from commonly agreed experiments • Support for models (including CFS) • Individual collaborations (e.g. COLA-ECPC RSM/CFS for different regions) • What gets better? • Responsiveness to NOAA mission • Rate of improvement of NOAA climate forecasting ops and products

  15. Balance among … • CTB • CDEP Reanalysis and Attribution • NCPO Research: ACC, CPPA, C2D2, CVP, GCC • NCPO Assessments & Services: RISA, SARP, TRACS • NOAA: COA Goal, CPP Goal Acronyms: • CTB - Climate Test Bed • CDEP - Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction • ACC - Atmospheric Composition and Climate • CPPA - Climate Prediction Program for the Americas • C2D2 - Climate Change Data & Detection • RISA - Regional Integrated Science and Assessment • SARP - Sectoral Applications Research Program • TRACS - Transition of Research Applications to Climate Services • COA - Climate Observations and Analyses • CPP - Climate Predictions and Projections

  16. Regional Coupled Modeling of Eastern Pacific Climate Yuqing Wang International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and Department of Meteorology School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA, Team Members: Shang-Ping Xie, Toru Miyama, Simon de Szoeke, R. Justin Small, Haiming Xu Collaborators: Roberto Mechoso (UCLA), Lord (NCEP) SOEST, University of Hawaii

  17. IPRC Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Model (iROAM) on ES Atmosphere: IPRC-RAM 0.5°×0.5°, L 30 GFDL Modular Ocean Model 2 0.5°×0.5°, L 30 Forced by NCEP reanalysis Interactive Ocean spin-up Coupled 1990 – 1995 1996 – 2003

  18. Large-scale subsidence Warm and dry SW radiative heating LW radiative cooling Detrainment Turbulent entrainment Evaporation Intermittent drizzle Transport Turbulent eddies Evaporative cooling Shallow cumulus Surface fluxes

  19. Interannual Variability: Niño3 SST

  20. Cloud regime transition Cloud water & potential temperature 12.5 S, Sept 95W Pressure (hPa) SST cooling Time Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 140W 120W 100W 80W Decoupled Coupled ABL Coupled ABL Decoupled

  21. Agenda • Introductions and background • Review of recent progress (5 min each)  • Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) • COAPS (Florida State U) • COLA • CSES ARC (U Washington) • ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego) • Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP) • Next steps to take as a group contributing to  • the CTB • the reanalysis and attribution project of CDEP • other program elements in the NOAA Climate Program • Balance among these three (Ropelewski) • any other items requiring discussion

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