ADS-B An Industry Perspective New Technologies Workshop Washington, DC January 10, 2007
ADS-BAutomatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast • Why? • Why so soon? • Why does the FAA support ADS-B? • Why might the aviation community support ADS-B? • Why is the FAA developing a Proposed Rule for ADS-B?
ADS-B Why? • Reduce Surveillance Costs for FAA • Surveillance applied in locations where radar does not exist today. • Gulf of Mexico • Mountainous Airports • Superior update rate • Facilitates reduced separation standards • Facilitates future capacity enhancements • Much of the JPDO CONOPS hinges around ADS-B type applications.
ADS-BWhy so soon? • Ground Based infrastructure replenishment decisions in the 2020 timeframe drive commitments today. • Retrofit cycles • GA (10 year equipage cycle) • Commercial Aviation ( 7 year cycle) • Assumes up to 10 years of prior development to field the avionics • Question might be why so long?
ADS-BWhy does the FAA support ADS-B? • Transition from ground based surveillance to satellite centric operations • Divestment • Strategic Investment decision with positive long term cost / benefit • Support aviation community demand • Enhances safety and capacity
ADS-BWhy might the aviation community support ADS-B? General Aviation • Flight Information Service – Broadcast (FIS-B) • Traffic Information System - Broadcast (TIS-B) • Supports reduced costs imposed by FAA • Situational Awareness and Safety enhancements akin to current Capstone program in Alaska
ADS-BWhy might the aviation community support ADS-B? Commercial Aviation • Supports future reductions in separation standards from current standards to meet 2020-2025 demand. • 5 mile enroute / 3 mile terminal separation standards are unlikely to meet this demand • Supports future capacity enhancements • With navigation enhancements, will benefit arrival and departure rates • Establishes the foundation for future cockpit safety and situational applications • VFR like separations in some cases • Surface surveillance applications
ADS-BWhy is the aviation community working through RTCA to develop recommendations for a Proposed Rule associated with ADS-B? • Establishes a collaborative model where FAA and aviation community develop the future in a collaborative manner • “Road to NexGen” passes through ADS-B • Lays the foundation for future system enhancements • Addresses many of the “transition” issues of moving to a aircraft centric NAS
Challenges • The Transition Plan • The Equipage Curves • The Cost Benefit story • The Consequences of Failure
Transition Plan • The Proposed Rule • Accomplished in the 2007 – 2010 timeframe • The Implementation Begins • Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Seaboard • 2010 timeframe • The ADS-B Infrastructure • Deployment complete in 2015 timeframe • Benefit accrues to early equippers • The Effectivity Date (2020 timeframe) • Near 100% equipage is required • Ground Based Radar removals begin
Equipage Curves • G A uses a 10 year equipage cycle • GPS or GPS / WAAS requirements • Challenges relative to backup scenario where surveillance source (GPS) is not available • Regional Community uses 7 year retrofit • Lack of Inertial introduces GPS backup concerns • Augmentation may be required • Commercial Carriers use 7 year retrofit cycle • Augmentation may be required
Cost Benefit story • Business Case is annualized through 2035 • Pay back to FAA and to Aviation Community is not immediate • Aviation Community ADS-B business assessment is challenging • Lays the groundwork for future benefit • Establishes the foundation for enhanced Surveillance and Navigation
Cost Benefit story • Fundamental Issues/Questions are: • Do you believe in the projections of at least double current capacity in 2020 -2025? • Do you believe “the transition” ever goes away? • Do you believe the service provider or the aviation community can make fundamental, “earth changing” decisions in isolation?
Consequences of Failure • Do you believe in the projections of at least double current capacity in 2020 -2025? • 100+ seater projections • 13000 today • 27000 by 2025 • Do you believe “the transition” ever goes away? • Plans and Vision are easy • Transitions are Hard • Do you believe the service provider or the aviation community can make fundamental, “earth changing” decisions in isolation? • JPDO vision of 2025 • We’re having difficulty in delivering ADS-B “out” by 2020
Summary • One thing for sure, we need to move in this direction over time. • Don’t want to have to re-equip again before 2025. • Retrofits or deliveries accomplished today need to support 2025 applications • Don’t want to change the aircraft architecture • Don’t want throw away equipment