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Projecting Louisiana’s Future: Population Trends for Louisiana Parishes, 2010-2030. Dr. Troy C. Blanchard Department of Sociology Louisiana State University. Acknowledgement:.

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projecting louisiana s future population trends for louisiana parishes 2010 2030

Projecting Louisiana’s Future: Population Trends for Louisiana Parishes, 2010-2030

Dr. Troy C. Blanchard

Department of Sociology

Louisiana State University

acknowledgement

Acknowledgement:

This work is a product of a collaborative effort between LSU and the State of Louisiana to provide a variety of agencies and organizations at the state and local level with timely demographic data on our state.

background information
Background Information
  • What are population projections and who uses them?
  • Who projects populations and how is it accomplished?
  • How do we interpret a population projection?
  • What are the important findings from the 2010-2030 population projections?
  • What new trends are emerging that may require additional research?
what are population projections and who uses them
What are population projections and who uses them?
  • A population projection is a simulation of what a population will look like at some point in the future based on a set of assumptions.
  • Projections are used by a wide variety of entities:
    • Organizations serving the elderly (Healthcare, Councils on Aging) use projections to identify areas with a fast growing elderly population.
    • Businesses use projections to identify a particular customer base.
    • Economic development groups use projections to identify the demand for jobs.
who projects populations
Who projects populations?
  • U.S. Census Bureau calculates population projections for the U.S. and individual states.
  • Sub-state projections are not a part of the U.S. Census Bureau mission:
    • Parishes
    • Cities/Towns/Villages
    • School Districts
  • Most states develop some type of projection effort to inform policy makers.
    • Louisiana: Department of Administration, Office of Electronic Services, Louisiana State Data Center
how is a population projected
How is a population projected?

Calculate number of deaths

Population at Time 1

Calculate number of births

Population at Time 2

Calculate net migration (inmigrants-outmigrants)

how is a population projected1
How is a population projected?
  • Use past trends to predict future.
  • Why past trends?
    • Fertility and mortality patterns generally stable.
    • Migration is the least stable of the three components that influence population size, so we use long term trends (5 or 10 year averages).
  • Migration varies due to a wide variety of issues and is difficult to predict:
    • Job opportunities
    • Quality of education
    • Housing stock
    • Access to natural amenities
    • Family, social, and cultural pulls
how do we interpret a population projection
How do we interpret a population projection?

Example…

The state of Louisiana is projected to grow by

107,920 persons between 2010 and 2015.

  • Caveat #1: If recent fertility, mortality, and migration trends remain the same, this will be the outcome.
  • Caveat #2: Not set in stone, if something happens that changes the migration, fertility, or mortality rates, the outcome will change.
key points
Key Points
  • A large share of South Louisiana Parishes are growing.
    • I-10/I-12 Corridor Metropolitan Areas
      • Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans
  • Growth in North Louisiana Parishes is concentrated.
    • Shreveport Metropolitan Areas
    • Alexandria Metropolitan Areas
key points1
Key Points
  • Top growth parishes:
    • Livingston (BR Metro)
    • St. Tammany (NO Metro)
    • Ascension (BR Metro)
    • St. John (NO Metro)
    • Plaquemines (NO Metro)
    • Bossier (Shreveport Metro)
    • DeSoto (Shreveport Metro)
key points2
Key Points
  • Top growth parishes:
    • Madison (Tallulah Micropolitan Area-Delta Region)
    • Tensas (Rural-Delta Region)
    • East Carroll (Rural-Delta Region)
    • Winn (Rural-Central LA)
    • Concordia (Natchez, MS-LA Micropolitan Area-Delta Region)
    • Vernon (Fort Polk/DeRidder Micropolitan Area-Central LA)
    • Catahoula (Rural-Central LA)
new trends to consider
New Trends to Consider:
  • Emerging population trend for Louisiana is the growing Hispanic population.
  • Grew by 4.83% from 2007-2008.
    • Nonhispanic Whites-.14%
    • Nonhispanic Black-1.64%
  • Growth occurring in both fast and slow growth areas:
    • The Lake Charles Metro leads the state with 7.7% growth in Hispanic, but is not a fast growing metro (<1% between 2007 and 2008).
slide19
Thank You!For More Information:Dr. Troy C. BlanchardDepartment of SociologyLouisiana State University126 Stubbs HallBaton Rouge, LA [email protected](225) 578-5123
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