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CSPP. European University Institute, Florence THE POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF INTERNET DIFFUSION Professor Richard Rose Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy University of Aberdeen www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp 16 February 2010. 2. THE LOGIC OF DIFFUSION

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slide1

CSPP

European University Institute, Florence

THE POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF INTERNET DIFFUSION

Professor Richard Rose

Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy

University of Aberdeen

www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp

16 February 2010

slide2

2.

THE LOGIC OF DIFFUSION

LEADERS AND LAGGARDS WITHOUT A DIVIDE

1. At any given point in time, usage is higher in some countries and social groups than others. But to call this a "divide" is static.

2. Going first gives leadership, but is also costly.

3. Following on is less costly and easier, so the rate of growth will be faster

4. With a fixed goal of 100% usage as the limit, the growth of initial leaders will decelerate and then flatten on a high plateau.

5. Once leaders stop growing, the question is not whether followers will catch up but when.

slide3

3.

PROXIMITY OF RUSSIANS TO THE INTERNET

Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Russia Barometer XIV. Fieldwork by Levada Centre, 3-23 January 2005, number of respondents: 2,107. For further details, see www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp

trends in russian internet use awareness and ignorance 2000 2007
TRENDS IN RUSSIAN INTERNET USE, AWARENESS AND IGNORANCE 2000-2007

4.

Q. Do you have access to the internet? If YES: is at home or at work? At home only? At work only? At home and at work? If NO: does that mean you know practically nothing about the internet?

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Change (percent)

User 3 7 8 9 11 15 19 23 24 +21

Aware 76 82 82 81 80 76 75 70 68 -8

Knows 21 11 10 10 9 96 7 8 -13

nothing

trends in russian internet use 2000 2009

5.

TRENDS IN RUSSIAN INTERNET USE, 2000-2009+

%

(% using internet)

Source: Levada Center, nationwide surveys, 2000-2007; Centre for the Study of Public Policy New Russia Barometer XVIII (2009).

R2 for trend line 2000-2009=.95; b=3.0

Compound annual growth rate=27%

growth ghettoization or openness

6.

GROWTH: GHETTOIZATION OR OPENNESS?

% Adults

87

78

22

13

Russia Finland Russia Finland Knows some English No English

Source: European Foundation Quality of Life Survey (2007); Centre for the Study of Public Policy New Russia Barometer XVIII (2009).

internet usage in eu countries 2007

7.

INTERNET USAGE IN EU COUNTRIES, 2007

% adults as usersN users (million) 10 20 30 40

Source: European Foundation Quality of Life Survey (2007).

potential to participate in european public space
POTENTIAL TO PARTICIPATE IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC SPACE

8.

Doubly qualified: Knows some English and uses internet

Doubly disqualified: neither

Source: European Foundation for Quality of Life Survey, 2007. Interviews with 30,626 people in 27 European Union countries, aggregated and weighted according to national population.

eu citizens by participation in public space 2007
EU CITIZENS BY PARTICIPATION IN PUBLIC SPACE, 2007

9.

Source: European Foundation for Quality of Life Survey, 2007. Interviews with 30,626 people in 27 European Union countries, aggregated and weighted according to national population. Qualified, English first language=Knows English very well, uses the internet, and is resident in the United Kingdom or Ireland; Qualified, English second language=Knows at least some English and uses internet; English only, no internet=Knows at least some English but does not use internet; Internet, no English=Uses internet but does not know any English; No participation=Neither knows any English nor uses the internet.

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10.

  • LANGUAGE PLUS UNDERSTANDING EQUALS SOFT POWER
  • 1. Modern information technology is spreading information more widely than ever before in history.
  • Joseph Nye
  • But information without understanding is hard or soft ignorance.
  • Richard Rose
  • 2. Knowledge of a language can be a crude indicator of understanding national context.
  • Equilibrium of soft power when H (hegemon) and Bs have equal information and knowledge of the other's language.
  • 4. Disequilibrium if either H or B lacks information (unlikely in Internet age) or if either H or B lacks understanding.
  • a. Low incentive for Hegemon H to understand context/ language of the Bs in its system
  • b. High incentive for Bs to understand H.
  • 5. Asymmetries of understanding give B soft power vis a vis hard power of H.
home language of global internet users 2008
HOME LANGUAGE OF GLOBAL INTERNET USERS, 2008

11.

Source: Calculated from data at International Telecommunications Union, 2010, ICT Statistics Database,http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/icteye/Indicators/Indicators.aspx# (accessed 11 February 2010)

trends in internet use by home language 1998 2008

12.

TRENDS IN INTERNET USE BY HOME LANGUAGE, 1998-2008

(millions of users)

Other

English

Chinese

Source: Calculated from data at International Telecommunications Union, 2010, ICT Statistics Database,http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/icteye/Indicators/Indicators.aspx# (accessed 11 February 2010)