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Make Your Move

Make Your Move. Alan Beaulieu ITR Economics ™. www.itreconomics.com. 2012 Forecast Results. 2. * End of year 12-month index estimate. Results for 2011. 3. US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product. -3.1%. -5.3%. -7.1%. -14.6%. Year-over-year Quarter to Quarter (3/12).

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Make Your Move

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  1. Make Your Move Alan Beaulieu ITR Economics™ www.itreconomics.com

  2. 2012 Forecast Results 2 * End of year 12-month index estimate

  3. Results for 2011 3

  4. US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product -3.1% -5.3% -7.1% -14.6% Year-over-year Quarter to Quarter (3/12)

  5. US Industrial Production Growth 12/12 annual growth rate

  6. Real Gross Domestic Product Trillions of $

  7. US Industrial Production to Wholesale Trade Durable Goods 7 12/12 Rates-of-Change

  8. US Industrial Production to Wholesale Trade Nondurable Goods 8 12/12 Rates-of-Change

  9. Wholesale Trade Petroleum & Petroleum Products to Crude Oil Futures Prices 9 12/12 Rates-of-Change

  10. US Industrial Production toWholesale Trade Machinery, Equipment & Supplies 10 12/12 Rates-of-Change

  11. US Industrial Production to Wholesale Trade Chemicals & Allied Products 12/12 Rates-of-Change

  12. Wholesale Trade Electrical & Electronic Goods 12 Bils of $

  13. Wholesale Trade Hardware & HVAC Equipment & Supplies to US Industrial Production 13 12/12 Rates-of-Change

  14. Recovery Leading indicators pointing up Liquidity is not an issue Exports are up Stimulative monetary policy Employment rising (companies right-sized) Banks are lending Retail Sales Construction spending is improving

  15. Areas of Concern Europe’s financial troubles … China recession? … Massive legislative changes… Oil prices could break through $120 … Fiscal Cliff… Tax Hikes… Massive deficit and growing nat’l debt

  16. National Defense Expenditures to Defense Capital Goods N.O. Obama Carter Bush Reagan Clinton Bush 12/12 Rates-of-Change

  17. Western Europe Industrial Production Year-Over-Year Growth Rates %

  18. Global Leading Indicators 1/12 Rates-of-Change

  19. Tax Revenue and Top Marginal Rates Compared,1930-2012 19 40-Year Average Source: Tax Policy Center; Historical Tables, OMB; CBO Alternative Scenario. Produced by Veronique de Rugy, Mercatus Center at George Mason University

  20. International Comparison of Spending on Health, 1980-2008

  21. Costs by Age Categories

  22. Caught in the WebWho can do what to whom Federal Reserve Act of 1913 32 pages Glass-Steagall Act 37 Dodd-Frank 848 Not rules, but instructions on how to create more regulations and bureaucracies Source: The Economist

  23. Total U.S. Public Debt (% of GDP)

  24. World Countries Industrial Production Year-Over-Year Growth Rates %

  25. Global Industrial Production Indices 12/12 Rates-of-Change

  26. US Manufacturing as a % of GDP (Value Added) 12.2% 11.0% 3MMA

  27. Copper Price Trend $ per pound, 3MMA

  28. Crude Oil Futures Prices Light & Sweet $ per Barrel, Data Trends

  29. U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil DecliningNet imports as a share of domestic consumption 60% 60% 58% 57% 52% 49% 45%

  30. Trends 10 Nonresidential Construction Production Financial Retail Housing Medical Wholesale Trade New Orders Soft Landing Foreign Hard Landing

  31. Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft 3/12 12/12 12MMT 3MMT Billions of $

  32. US Industrial Production to ITR Leading Indicator USIP – 12/12 Indicator - Monthly

  33. University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index 12/12 Rate-of-Change

  34. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 34 6 Month Moving Average

  35. Purchasing Managers Index Raw Data

  36. Ratio of Inventories to New Orders Raw Data

  37. US Leading Indicator

  38. Stock Prices Index 38 1/12 12/12 12MMA Actual S&P 500, 1941-43 = 10

  39. Corporate Bond Prices 39 Rates-of-Change

  40. Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles 3/12 12/12 12MMT 3MMT Trillions of 82-84$

  41. Personal Savings Billions of $, Annual Data TrendSAAR

  42. Housing Starts 3/12 12/12 12MMT 3MMT Millions of Units

  43. Remodeling Market Index 3MMA

  44. US Industrial Production to Private Non-Residential Construction • 3.5% 2014 4.5% Additions and Alteration Commercial Buildings -4.7% D Office & Bank Alterations -6.9% A Stores & Restaurants -0.4% D 12/12 Rates-of-Change

  45. The NAW Advisor • Concise 6 Page Report  • Excellent Economic “Snap Shot"  • Consists of Current Events, Extensive Forecasts for Durable & Nondurable Goods, Snap Shot Indicators, Readers' Questions, Fed Notes, ITR Opportunity Index, and more   • Delivered Monthly Email: kimberly@ITReconomics.com Subject: NAW is Cool” With your contact information

  46. 2013

  47. 2014

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