CMIP5 : 2m correlation skill score
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CMIP5 : 2m correlation skill score. Full Field. Detrended field. CNRM-CM5 Contribution to CMIP5 20 dates (1959, 1960, 1964, 1965 … 2004, 2005) 10 members for each date Pinatubo-like eruption in 2010 (10 members). Most of the skill is due to the trend

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CMIP5 : 2m correlation skill score

Full Field

Detrended field

  • CNRM-CM5 Contribution to CMIP5

    • 20 dates (1959, 1960, 1964,

    • 1965 … 2004, 2005)

    • 10 members for each date

    • Pinatubo-like eruption in 2010 (10 members)

  • Most of the skill is due to the trend

  • Added value of the ocean initialization and high skill

    • The first year

    • In the North Atlantic Ocean + western Pacific

  • Poor skill in the central and eastern Pacific


Beyond CMIP5 : work on ocean initialization

  • Ocean initialization :Nudging to the ECMWF ocean reanalysis NEMOVAR (ORCA1°) [1958 -2008]

  • Several tests have been performed to set the optimal parameters for surface and subsurface restoring

GLOB No 3D nudging within the 1°S–1°N band

EXTROP No 3D nudging

Within the 15°S–15°N band


Beyond CMIP5 : work on ocean initialization

Yr1

Yr2

Yr3

Yr4

NINO34 SST

Ensemble mean (dates+members) Nino34 SST index

Perturbation of the tropical climate up to 4yr (systematic NINO the 1st

and 3rd year) when subsurface are initialized in the tropics


Beyond CMIP5: impact of the stratosphere

LT

  • Low Top configuration

    • 61 vertical level (5 hPa)

    • T63 horizontal Grid

Full Field

  • High Top configuration

    • 91 vertical level (0.01 hPa) with exact same levels as LT in the troposphere

    • T63 horizontal Grid

HT

  • Experiments

    • 10 dates (1980, 1981, 1983, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1996, 2001)

    • 5 more to come (1989, 1995, 1998, 2000, 2003)

    • 6 members for each date

    • 5 years long

Detrended field

No significant changes compared to CMIP5

No significant added value when the stratosphere is well resolved


Beyond CMIP5 : the 2006-2023 forecast

  • Model : CNRM-CM5

  • Initialization : Same as CMIP5

  • 3 series of 10 members for 2006-2021 forecast

    • Control ensemble (decadal): RCP4.5 forcing + solar

    • Fictitious Pinatubo-like eruption in 2010 (VolcIn2010)

    • Suppressed 11yr solar cycle (SolarMin : maintain to the 2009 record minimum over the forecast period)

  • + 1 series of 10 members for 2006-2021 RCP4.5 projection

2m-Temperature

Global precip

  • Colder start when initialized in 2006 versus RCP4.5

  • Warmer climate at the end of the forecast vs RCP4.5

  • Fictitious Pinatubo significant effect up to 2016

  • Minor global effect for SUN


Volcanic forcing : regional features

2m-Temperature

WINTER

SUMMER

MSLP

2m-Temperature

2m-Temperature

MSLP

Mean [2010-2014] difference between the fictitious Pinatubo exp. and the control decadal experiment


Solar forcing : regional features

2m-Temperature

WINTER

SUMMER

MSLP

2m-Temperature

2m-Temperature

MSLP

Mean [2011-2016] difference between the SolarMin exp. and the control decadal experiment


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