1 / 7

Probability Simulation Models for Estimating Outcomes

Learn to create and execute simulations to estimate probabilities accurately. Understand the steps involved and how to simulate multiple trials independently for accurate results.

loweryc
Download Presentation

Probability Simulation Models for Estimating Outcomes

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. AP Statistics Section 6.1 Simulations

  2. Objective: To be able to create and carry out a simulation. Probability: the branch of mathematics that describes the pattern of chance outcomes. Models for Estimating Probability • Observe and calculate relative frequency. • Use a probability model and calculate the theoretical answer. • Start with a model and then simulate many repetitions of the procedure.

  3. Simulation is the imitation of chance behavior based on a model that accurately reflects the phenomenon under consideration. Steps: • State or describe the problem. • State the assumptions. • Assign digits to outcomes and describe the procedure. *** • Simulate many repetitions. • Calculate the relative frequency and state the conclusions. Trial: one repetition of the simulation. Trials are independent if the results of one trial do not influence the results of the next trial.

  4. Ex. 1 Simulate the chance that the Eagles make the playoffs this season.

  5. Ex. 2 Missile Defense Problem. An intercepting missile has a 60% success rate. The government has decided to launch 4 interceptors at each incoming missile. Simulate the likelihood that the incoming missile hits its target. (all interceptors miss)

  6. Ex. 3 The Rumor Problem Ex. 4 The Duck Hunt

  7. Ex. 5 The Birthday Problem Ex. 6 The Baseball Problem

More Related