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National Food and Agricultural Policy Project Arizona State University AFBF 88th Annual Convention January 6, 2007 PowerPoint Presentation
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National Food and Agricultural Policy Project Arizona State University AFBF 88th Annual Convention January 6, 2007 NFAPP Mission NFAPP is a charged with the responsibility of providing timely policy and market analysis on the fruit and vegetable sector to Congress and the industry.

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National Food and Agricultural Policy Project

Arizona State University

AFBF 88th Annual Convention

January 6, 2007

nfapp mission
NFAPP Mission

NFAPP is a charged with the responsibility of providing timely policy and market analysis on the fruit and vegetable sector to Congress and the industry.

http://nfapp.poly.asu.edu/

nfapp activities
NFAPP Activities
  • 10-year Baselines
  • Policy Analyses
  • Congressional Research Requests
  • Review Sessions
  • Policy Papers
  • Quarterly Newsletter
fruit and nut models
Almonds

Apples

Cherries

Grapes

Oranges

Peaches

Strawberries

Fruit and Nut Models
vegetable and melon models
Vegetable and Melon Models
  • Lettuce
  • Mushrooms
  • Onions
  • Potatoes
  • Sweet Corn - Proc.
  • Tomatoes (Fresh, Proc.)
  • Watermelon
  • Bell Pepper
  • Broccoli
  • Cantaloupe
  • Carrots
  • Cauliflower
  • Celery
  • Honey Dew
fruit value forecast
Fruit Value Forecast
  • U. S total Value for Fruits and Nuts is expected to grow 17% from 2006 to 2015 to reach 17.8 billion dollars
vegetable value forecast
Vegetable Value Forecast
  • U.S. Vegetable cash receipts are expected to follow a similar growth as that of fruits (17%) to reach 22.5 billion dollars
production
Production
  • While production for major Vegetables has grown at of 52 % per year Fruits has been stable with a percent growth of 4 % per year.
consumption
Consumption
  • Historical Trends Show that Consumption for vegetables has grown 21% while fruits have been growing at a rate of 9%
commodity import share
Commodity Import Share

Lettuce1-1.5%

Fresh White Onions11-12%

Potatoes 6-8%

Tomatoes 35-40%

Table Grapes 52-58%

Apples Fresh 6-9%, Juice 63-80%

Oranges Fresh 3-7%, Juice 13-21%

Fresh Strawberries 5-8%

Range: Fruits 24%, Vegetables 18%

farm bill issues current policy analysis
Farm Bill IssuesCurrent Policy Analysis
  • Flex Acre Provisions
  • Market Expansion
  • School lunch program

(fruit and vegetable)

flex acre restriction
Flex Acre Restriction
  • Commodity program participants allowed to produce any crop except, fruits, vegetables, and wild rice
  • Traditionally, an argument supported by concerns over equity
  • Restriction called into question under Brazil’s challenge of the U.S. cotton program
  • Additional complexity – 2002 Farm Bill brought soybeans and peanuts under the DCP program
flex acre complexities
Flex Acre - Complexities
  • Fruit and vegetable crops are commercially produced in every state
  • Program crops are produced in every state
  • Program crop producers are enrolled in commodity programs in nearly every state
  • Traditionally returns in many fruit and vegetable crops have exceeded returns on program crop commodities, though typically more variable
potential entry into fruits vegetables
Potential Entry into Fruits & Vegetables
  • Competing Areas
    • 219 million acres program crops (2002)
    • 267 million acres enrolled acres
    • 10 million acres – all produce
  • Where and what
    • Processing vegetables – not likely
    • Tree fruit, berry (cane-type) – not likely
    • Fresh vegetables, melons – more likely
      • Areas with existing production
select region
Select Region
  • Program Crop Acreage: 4.5 Million Acres
    • Cotton, winter wheat, sorghum, corn, peanuts
  • Produce Crop Acreage: 695,210 Acres
    • 50 produce crops
    • Lettuce, cantaloupes, tomatoes, carrots, watermelon, sweet corn, potatoes, broccoli, onions, cabbage, cucumbers
farm bill issues
Farm Bill Issues

Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Snack Program

Expand Authorization

Health Impacts

Long Term Direction

fresh fruit and vegetable snack program
Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Snack Program
  • 14 States (350 schools)
  • 4 Indian Communities (SD, AZ, NM, 25 schools)
  • Permanent funding of $ 9 million/year
  • FY 07 Expand to CA, AR, GA
  • Full implementation of FVSP, NFAPP estimates an increase of $1.1 billion farm income
farm bill issues28
Farm Bill Issues

Specialty Crop Competitiveness

Market Access

Non Tariff Barrier Reduction

Phytosanitary

specialty crop competitiveness
Specialty Crop Competitiveness
  • Stagnant export growth –lack of access to foreign markets
  • Subsidized foreign competition
  • Rapidly increasing production costs
  • Increasing import competition from growers in nations with minimal regulations
  • Labor uncertainty