Local economic conditions
Download
1 / 36

- PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 299 Views
  • Updated On :

Local Economic Conditions Rutherford County Home Builders Association Business and Economic Research Center Jennings A. Jones College of Business David A. Penn, Director November 18, 2004 Overview Uncertainty Improved in the spring Uncertainty is now increasing Major Factors

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about '' - lotus


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Local economic conditions l.jpg
Local Economic Conditions

Rutherford County Home Builders Association

Business and Economic Research Center

Jennings A. Jones College of Business

David A. Penn, Director

November 18, 2004


Overview l.jpg
Overview

  • Uncertainty

    • Improved in the spring

    • Uncertainty is now increasing

  • Major Factors

    • Muddled consumer and business confidence

    • Energy prices

    • Inconsistent employment growth

    • Rising interest rates


Consumer and business confidence l.jpg
Consumer and Business Confidence

Interest rate outlook

Iraq war

Terrorism

Confidence?

Earnings outlook

Aging of the population

Energy prices

Job outlook

Consumer debt

Investment spending


Consumer confidence l.jpg
Consumer Confidence

Confidence down for the 3rd straight month; 12% lower than in July.



Indicators for the local economy l.jpg
Indicators for the Local Economy million this year.

  • Nonfarm employment

  • Unemployment rate

  • Taxable sales

  • Housing and real estate


Indicators for the local economy7 l.jpg
Indicators for the Local Economy million this year.

  • Nonfarm employment

  • Unemployment rate

  • Taxable sales

  • Housing and real estate


Rutherford county l.jpg
Rutherford County million this year.

  • Payroll employment grew 7.3% March 2003-04

  • Second highest employment growth rate among 315 largest counties in the U.S.

  • Fourth highest December 2002-03 (4.6%)

  • Sixth highest growth June 2002-03


Nashville msa payroll employment l.jpg
Nashville MSA Payroll Employment million this year.

Employment has improved beyond its pre-recession peak.

August data


Nonfarm employment l.jpg

Modest job growth million this year.: Nashville MSA up by 1.0%, Tennessee up 0.6% Sept. from year ago.

Nonfarmemployment


Payroll employment growth l.jpg
Payroll Employment Growth million this year.

Rutherford growth very fast paced.


Construction employment growth l.jpg
Construction Employment Growth million this year.



Indicators for the local economy14 l.jpg
Indicators for the Local Economy million this year.

  • Nonfarm employment

  • Unemployment rate

  • Taxable sales

  • Housing and real estate


Unemployment rate l.jpg
Unemployment rate million this year.

Unemployment rates September 2004 (2003)

U.S. 5.1% (5.8%)

Tennessee 3.8% (4.8%)

Nashville MSA 3.8% (4.6%)

Memphis MSA 6.0% (6.5%)

Davidson County 3.9% (4.7%)

Rutherford County 3.6% (4.6%)

Williamson County 2.8% (3.0%)


Indicators for the local economy17 l.jpg
Indicators for the Local Economy million this year.

  • Nonfarm employment

  • Unemployment rate

  • Taxable sales

  • Housing and real estate


Rutherford taxable sales l.jpg
Rutherford Taxable Sales million this year.

Slower sales growth this year compared with 2003.


Rutherford williamson l.jpg

Williamson and other counties are also experiencing slower sales growth.

Rutherford & Williamson


Taxable sales by county percent change over year ago l.jpg
Taxable Sales by County sales growth.(Percent change over year ago)



Indicators for the local economy22 l.jpg
Indicators for the Local Economy sales growth.

  • Nonfarm employment

  • Unemployment rate

  • Taxable sales

  • Housing and real estate


Residential building permits third quarter 2003 04 l.jpg
Residential Building Permits sales growth.Third Quarter 2003-04

  • U.S.: + 7.5%

  • Tennessee: +16.2%

  • Nashville MSA: +15.7%

  • Rutherford County: +17.1%


Rutherford county housing units l.jpg
Rutherford County sales growth.Housing Units

  • Added more housing units in 2003 than six states.

  • Rutherford County ranked in top 100 U.S. counties in housing unit growth for 2003 – Census Bureau


Realty transfer tax collections l.jpg
Realty Transfer Tax Collections sales growth.

Activity slowed statewide and in the MSA.


Real estate transactions l.jpg
Real Estate Transactions sales growth.

Still very strong in Rutherford County


Realty transfer tax sept 2003 04 l.jpg
Realty Transfer Tax sales growth.Sept 2003-04

  • Tennessee: -0.3%

  • Nashville MSA: -13.9%

  • Rutherford County: +55.9%


Interest rates l.jpg
Interest Rates sales growth.

Upward pressure on interest rates.


Expectations l.jpg
Expectations sales growth.

  • Continuing gradual recovery of the U.S. economy.

  • Gradually rising short-term rates.

  • Inflation may become more of a concern.

  • Sustained growth in Europe, Canada, and Mexico would be helpful.


U s markets l.jpg
U.S. Markets sales growth.

  • Gently rising mortgage rates (up 0.5 in 2005)

  • Housing starts down 7% in 2005, 8% in 2006

  • Mortgage originations down 15% in 2005, 7% in 2006

  • Refinancings down 40% in 2005, 23% in 2006

    • Source: Mortgage Bankers Assoc.


Expectations for rutherford county l.jpg
Expectations for Rutherford County sales growth.

  • Choppy taxable sales growth.

  • Continued strong employment growth.

  • Slower rate of growth of real estate activity.


Business and economic research center jennings a jones college of business l.jpg
Business and Economic Research Center sales growth.Jennings A. Jones College of Business

  • Publications

  • Data

  • Contract Research

  • Outreach


Publications l.jpg
Publications sales growth.

  • Tennessee’s Business - Professor Horace Johns

  • Election 2004 (forthcoming)

  • People Who Keep State Government Running

  • Tennessee Lottery


Publications34 l.jpg
Publications sales growth.

  • Global Commerce - Professor Steven Livingston

  • China Takes the Stage

  • Free Trade Agreements

  • Trade Wars


Publications35 l.jpg
Publications sales growth.

  • Midstate Economic Indicators

    • Issued quarterly

    • Second quarter in print


Business and economic research center l.jpg
Business and Economic Research Center sales growth.

David Penn, Director

[email protected]

615-904-8571


ad