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报告人：雷晓康 副教授 单 位：西北大学公共管理学院

2005-12-20. ????????????. 2. ????. ?????????????????????????????????????(ERP, 2002, 2005)?????????????????????. 2005-12-20. ????????????. 3. ????????????????????????? ???????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????. 2005-12-20. ????????????. 4. ????. ????(???????)??????????? ???????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????PAYG?FS????????????? .

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报告人：雷晓康 副教授 单 位：西北大学公共管理学院

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    1. ???:??? ??? ? ?:?????????? ?????????????

    2. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 2 ???? ?????????????????????????????? ???????(ERP, 2002, 2005) ?????? ??????? ????????

    3. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 3 ????????????????????????? ???????????????????,????????????????????????????? ???????????,????????????????

    4. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 4 ???? ????(???????)??????????? ???????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????PAYG?FS?????????????

    5. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 5 ????????? 1?????: ?????(pay-as-you-go, PAYG) ?????????????????????????? ???(funded system,FS) ?????????,???????????????????????????,?????,????????????????????????

    6. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 6 2??????????????????????,???????: ??????(Defined benefit plans,DB) ??????(Defined contribution plans,DC)

    7. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 7

    8. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 8 3. ?????????????,????: ????(Flat-rate)?????? ????(earnings-related)??????

    9. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 9 4. PAYG ????? : Samuelson(1954) ?????????PAYG ????????????????? ??????????????? ????????????????????,???????????????????????????????????????????????????,????,???????????????????????????????????,???????

    10. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 10 ????? ???? ??????????? (Arron Condition ) ???? ????

    11. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 11 PAYG?????????? ????????? ???????,???????????????? ???? ????????????????????????????????????????????????(??,2000,P277)

    12. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 12 5. FS ????? : ?????????????? ??????????,?????????????,????????????????????? ???????????????????????,??????????????(?????+????) ????????????????,?????????,????????????????????????????????

    13. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 13 FS ?????? ???? ??????????? ??????? ??????? ?????????

    14. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 14 FS ??????? ????????? ????????????,??????????????,????????????????????

    15. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 15 ??PAYG??????? ??????????????,??????????? ??????????,??????????????????????????????????,?????????????

    16. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 16 1. ???? Feldstein(1974)???????????????????????(crowding-out effect),?????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????30%-50%;Kotlikoff (1979) ???????????10-21%;Danziger?Haveman and Plotnick(1981) ?????????0-20%?????

    17. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 17 Feldstein(1996) ??????????????????,??1992???????$4160?,1971????610?? Coates and Humphreys (1999) ??????Feldstein (1996,1974)???,??????????????

    18. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 18 Meguire (2003) ????????Feldstein (1996)????????????,???1992?(1971?)?????????????2800???(220???)??????????????????????1972????????????,????????????????0? ????????????????????????????,??????????,???????????????????????? (Schieber and Shoven ,1999, p. 388)

    19. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 19 2002????????????????,?28????????,?24?????????????????????????????????????????????,???????????,??????????(ERP,2002,P79) 2001-2005?????????????????

    20. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 20 2. ??????????? Barro(1974) ?????????????????,??????????????????????????,?????????????????,??????????????,?????????????????????(? Barro ??)

    21. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 21 Michael Darby(1980) ? Slate(1994)? Kopits & Gotur(1995)? Diamond(1998)????????,?????????????????? Ehrlich and Zhong (1998) ?????????GDP???????????????,??????????????(?????)

    22. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 22 Page(1998) ??????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????,????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????

    23. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 23 Becker and Barro (1988, p. 18) ??,?????????,PAYG?????????????????? Cigno (1993) ?????????????????????,?????????,????????????????????????????????????????

    24. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 24 Yakita (2001) ??,?????????????,???????????????,?????????,???PAYG????????,??????????

    25. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 25 3. ??: ?????,?????????????????????????????????,????????????????????,?????????,????????

    26. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 26 ????????,?????????????????????????????,????,????????????,?????????????????? ???????????????,??????????????????????1,???????,???????????,??????????,?????????????

    27. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 27 ????????FS?????????,???????? ???????????? ??FS???????

    28. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 28 1. ???? Davies & Kuhn(1992),Davies(1995)????????????????????????? Venti and Wise(1995) ?Poterba, Venti?Wise(1996)??,???80??????????????????(IRAs)?401(k)??,??????????

    29. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 29

    30. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 30 ????(1997) ??,??????????????,???????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????,?????????,???????????????

    31. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 31 Cigno et al.(2003 ) ???????????????,???????????????,??????????????????? Cigno and Werding (2003, Chapt. 5) ??????????????(????????????), ?????????????? 2002?2004??????????????FS????????

    32. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 32 2. ????????????? Munnell(1976) ?Dicks-Mireaux and King(1984) ?????????????????,??????????????? Bernheim and Scholz(1993) ?????????????????, Samwick(1994) ????????????????

    33. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 33 Venti and Wise(1995)????????????????????????????????????,???????????????? Kennickell?Sunden(1997) ???????????,??DB????????????????????,?DC??????,?401(k)??,??????????????????

    34. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 34 3. ?? ???????,?????????????????????????????????????,??????,?????????????? ??????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????,?????,???????????????,???????????

    35. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 35 ?????????????????????,???????????????????????????,???????????? ???????,??????????????????????????????????????????,???????????????????? FS?????????????????????,??,???????????????

    36. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 36 Myles(1995,P446)??,??????????????????,????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,???(??????)????????????????????????????????,??FS ??PAYG?

    37. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 37 ????????????????? ????,???????????????????????????????20??????,?????????(Coates and Humphreys,1999) ???????????????????????????,????????????????,????????????????,???????,??????????????(Zhang & Zhang ,2004)

    38. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 38 Solo??????:??????????,??????????????? ??????L:K??????????:?????????????????????,???????????,??????????,???????,??????????,????????,???????????(Myles,1995,p440-443) ??????????

    39. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 39 ?????? ??????????????????????????????????????? Mulligan (1997) ?????????????,?????????????????,?????????????????????????:???????????,?????????????

    40. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 40 Zhang (1995) ????????????????,PAYG??????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????,?????????,???????????????? (????:????????????,???????????)

    41. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 41 Kemnitz & Wigger(2000)????????????????????,???FS??,PAYG????????????????PAYG????????????????????????????,?????????????????,????PAYG??????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????,??????????

    42. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 42 de la Croix and Doepke (2003) ????????????????????,?????????????????????????????? Zhang & Zhang (2004)????????????????????????????????????????????,????????,??????????

    43. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 43 Zhang & Zhang (2004)???????????????????0.4176(t=0.004);??,????????????????????????? (???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,???????????????????????)

    44. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 44 Kemnitz(2000) ?????????????????????,????????????????????,??????????????????????,?????????????????? ??????,?????????????????????????????,PAYG?????????????????,???????????????????,????????,??????????????

    45. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 45 ?????:Kemnitz????????????????????????????,?????????????????????,???????????????????????????????:??????????????????????????

    46. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 46 Kaganovich & Zilcha(1999) ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????,PAYG?????????????????PAYG?????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    47. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 47 Bellettini & Ceroni(1999) ?????PAYG???????????????????????????????????????????????????,????PAYG???????????????????,????????????????????????????

    48. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 48 ??????????????? 1. ??????????????????? Galor(1986) ??????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????? ????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????? ?

    49. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 49 Borjas(1995) ??,??????????????????,???????????(immigration surplus)? Geide-Stevenson & Ho(2004)????????????,?????????????????,??????????????????,???????????????????????????????????????????????

    50. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 50 2. ?????????????? ????? ??PAYG?,???????????????????????????,???????????1970s??????????????? ????????????????????,???????????????

    51. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 51 Craig and Batina (1991) ??????????????????????????????(???????????????????????????????????????????),????????????????????????,???????????????????,????????

    52. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 52 Gruber and Wise (1999) ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????SSW??????? ??????????????????,?????????????????????

    53. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 53 Gruber and Wise (2004) ?????????????: ?????? ??????? ???????,??????????????(??SSW???),??????????,????????????????? ?????????????????,????????

    54. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 54 Gustman & Steinmeier(2004) ?????????10.6%??????????PAYG,????????62?????????15????,????????????????????????,?62?????????6??????????????????????????????????????,??????,??????????

    55. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 55 ????????????????????????????????????????,?????????????,???????????????????????????????(ERP,2002,P78) ??????,????????????????70?????,?????????,?????3????,?????????1????????????????????,??????????

    56. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 56 ???????????????????????????,Kotlikoff(1979)??????????????????,???????????????????????,???????????????????Crawford and Lilien(1981) ??,????????,??????????????????,??????????????????????

    57. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 57 Hyman(1999,Chap 8) ????????????????????????70???????,??,???????????70????????????? James(2004) ?????????????????????????????,???????,????????

    58. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 58 Gustman & Steinmeier(2004) ???????????????????????????????,????1992-2000???????????????,??????????62????,??????????????????????,?????????????????????????????62????????

    59. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 59 3. ??????????????? ????????????,???????????????????????????????????????,??????????????? ?????????,?????????

    60. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 60 Barr(1993,p65-67)??,????????????65?,???60?,????????77?,???80????????,???????????12?,???20????????????:????????????????????????20/12???????????????,???????,????????????????20/12?

    61. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 61 Barr???????????????,??????????????????,???????????????????:???????????????????????,?????????????????????,?????????????????,????????? ????????????????,??????????,?65?,???????????????

    62. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 62 Hurst and Willen(2004) ??,???????????????:????,?????????????10%?????,????,??????????,???????2%?????????,????????????????????:?????????????,???????????(??30?)?????????,??30???????????????????,????30??????????????????????????

    63. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 63 ????????????? ???????????? ???? ???PAYG?FS??????? ?????????

    64. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 64 1. ?????????????

    65. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 65

    66. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 66 ?????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????,????????????????????,?????????????

    67. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 67 ???????,????? ??PAYG?????? ???????? 2. ????????????

    68. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 68 ??????????0.7???,????25???,?????????70.5????76???,??? ?1996??2.7:1????2035??1.43:1???????,???????????????,??????????1999??19.5%???20%-30%???(Bach and Wiegard,2002)

    69. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 69 ???????????9????65?,???????????????????????????????????????1950??16:1?2004???3.3:1,???2040???2:1? ??36??????????????????,??????2018??????,????????2042????(ERP, 2005)?

    70. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 70 ??????????????????,1925??4.08%,1950??2.20%,1975??1.90%,2000?1.70%?(2002????????,P117)

    71. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 71 2004??,??65???????????9857?,??????7.6%? ??????????????????????,2020???65??????????????11.3%,2030s??????????,2050????????21.2%?

    72. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 72 ?????????,???????????,?????????,?2025??,???????????5000-14000???????????????????

    73. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 73

    74. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 74 ? 3 ????????????? ????:ERP2004,P133

    75. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 75

    76. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 76

    77. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 77 3. ????????? ?PAYG?FS??? ?PAYG???,????????????????????????,????????????? ?????????????

    78. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 78 (1)?PAYG?FS??? ????????,??????(DB)???????(DC) ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????

    79. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 79 ??:????????(PRAs)(ERP, 2002,2005) ???????: ??????,????????????????,????????47??,???????????????????,????????????????????????? (ERP,2005)

    80. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 80 ??:???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????????,???????????????????

    81. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 81 ??2001??Riester??:???????????,??????PAYG??????????,????????????????,??????????????????????????,????????????????????????10???????(Brsch-Supan & Wilke,2004)

    82. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 82 ??2003?Rurup???????:?2001??????,??????????????65?67????????????????PAYG??????????????,?????????????,????DB???DC?2004?????????????,?????????????(Brsch-Supan & Wilke,2004)

    83. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 83 (2) ??PAYG?????? Barr(1993,p63) ????????????????????????,?????????????;???????;????????? ??????:(a)?????????(b)?????????,???????;(c)????????,???????????????????(d)?????;(e)??????????;(f)??????????,?????????;(g)?????

    84. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 84 Holzmann(1988)?Falkingham(1989)??????????????????(c)(g)??????????????????????????,????????????????????(a)?(b)??????,?????????????????????????????????,?????????????????

    85. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 85 Fehr et al.(2003)????????:a.????????????????;b.?????????????;c. ???????????;d.??????????;e.???????????????????????

    86. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 86 Gruber and Wise(2004) ????:??????,??????????,?????????? ????????????,???????,?????????????????????????(ERP,2005)

    87. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 87 (3)????????????? ??????????????????? Shoven and Whalley(1983)?and Seidman (1984) ?Batina (1987) ?Lord (1988) ?Hu (1996) ?Seidman and Lewis (1999) Lopez-Garcia (1996) ???????(?????????)?????????-???????,?????????????,?????????????-????,?????????

    88. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 88 Lin & Tian(2003) ??????????????????????????,??????????????????,????????????????????????,?????????????????,???????????????????

    89. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 89 ???????????? Ono (2003) ??????????????,????????????????????????????,??????????????? ??Ricardian Equivalence???

    90. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 90 4. ???PAYG?FS??????? ?PAYG?FS??????? ?PAYG?FS??:????? ?PAYG?FS??:??????????? ??PRAs??????????

    91. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 91 (1) ????? ????(prefund system) FS???????? FS???????????? ???????????????????????

    92. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 92 (2)??:????? ?PAYG?FS????????? ????????????? ??????????????????????? ??????,???????

    93. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 93 ?????:??????????? ?????????????,Spremann (1984)?Breyer(1989)????PAYG?FS?????????????? ????????:?????????????,??????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????

    94. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 94 Belan et al(1998,P124) ??,?PAYG?FS?????????????????????????????????????????????? Sinn(2000) ??,????????????????,????????,????????????????,?????????

    95. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 95 (3)??:??????????? ??PAYG??????,???PAYG?FS???,?????????????,???????????????

    96. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 96 ???????????,?????????(Bach and Wiegard,2002) ??PAYG??????????????,???????????? ??????????? ?????????????????????????????????

    97. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 97 Fehr et al.(2003) ????????,?????????????????,???????????????????????????????,??????????????????????,???????,????????????????

    98. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 98 Precott (2004) ???????????,?????PAYG????FS????????????????????,???????????,?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    99. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 99 ????,PAYG???????????,?FS??????,????????????,FS??????????Bach and Wiegard(2002)??????????????:?????(??????????????????)??????(??????????,???????????????)????(???????????????????)???????????PAYG ? FS ?????????????

    100. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 100 ??????????????????,??PRA??????????,???????????????,??PRAs?(Auerbach and Kotlikoff,1987 ; Kotlikoff 1996; Mitchell and Zeldes,1996 ) Feldstein et al(2001) ????????????????????PRAs?????,?????????????????PAYG???,????????????????????????? (4) ??PRAs??????????

    101. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 101 5. ?????:???? ???:PAYG?FS??? ???????,??????????: ?????????????? ??????????? ???????????????????(windfall effect)

    102. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 102 ??????? ???????????????????????????????????????,??????????,???? ??????????????????,?????????? ??PAYG?FS??,??????????????

    103. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 103 ???????????,????????????,?????: E-mail: leixkfly@vip.sina.com

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