PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS. Alan Chang Curt Rozycki Kris Turner. IS 6833 SPRING 2012. Introduction. According to FBI crime reporting data, St. Louis was considered to be the most dangerous city in the United States in 2011.
According to FBI crime reporting data, St. Louis was considered to be the most dangerous city in the United States in 2011.
An Index Score of 100 is equal to the national crime rate. This means that St. Louis had a crime rate of more than five times the national average.
Analysis Regression Model
Collect geographic data
Determine which models for 2011
Run Multiple Regression
Analysis the X and Y variable
Linear Regression model for 2012
Predict the number of 2012
Total 16 different Models
16 Models Regression Analysis
(Africa American + Murder/capita + Median Household Income + Education)
Analysis 79 neighborhoods
2012 Total 194 Homicides
Result of the 2012
Red -=> 5
The model presented can be used to provide information to decision makers, such as social worker, polices, and people who want buy a new house.