PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS

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PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS. Alan Chang Curt Rozycki Kris Turner. IS 6833 SPRING 2012. Introduction. According to FBI crime reporting data, St. Louis was considered to be the most dangerous city in the United States in 2011.

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PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS

Alan Chang

Curt Rozycki

Kris Turner

IS 6833

SPRING 2012

Introduction

According to FBI crime reporting data, St. Louis was considered to be the most dangerous city in the United States in 2011.

An Index Score of 100 is equal to the national crime rate. This means that St. Louis had a crime rate of more than five times the national average.

Analysis Approach Flow Chart

Analysis Regression Model

(Individual)

Collect geographic data

Determine which models for 2011

Determine Individual

Variable

Project

Start

Run Multiple Regression

Analysis the X and Y variable

Linear Regression model for 2012

Predict the number of 2012

Project Close

Variable List

• Population
• Murder/capita
• Race (White/Africa American/Asian)
• Median Household Income
• Education Level (Complete High School Degree)
• Married
• Male/Female Ratio
• Have Children (under 18yrs)
• Median Home Value

Regression Models

Total 16 different Models

Model Comparison (Regression Analysis)

16 Models Regression Analysis

Best Model

(Africa American + Murder/capita + Median Household Income + Education)

Estimate 79 different neighborhoods

Analysis 79 neighborhoods

2012 Total 194 Homicides

Result of the 2012

Predictions by Neighborhood

Red -=> 5

Yellow -2~4

Green -<2

• Top dangerous neighborhoods
• Fairground
• Jeff Vanderlou
• Dutchtown

How to improve the prediction

• More updated yearly data by neighborhood
• More variables need provide (guns holders/drug users/genders)
• Other modeling method

Conclusion

The model presented can be used to provide information to decision makers, such as social worker, polices, and people who want buy a new house.

Reference

• http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/02/16/the-11-most-dangerous-cities
• St. Louis City Guide (Education level/Household income..)