predicting 2012 homicides in st louis l.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 15

PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 131 Views
  • Uploaded on

PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS. Alan Chang Curt Rozycki Kris Turner. IS 6833 SPRING 2012. Introduction. According to FBI crime reporting data, St. Louis was considered to be the most dangerous city in the United States in 2011.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS' - lora


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
predicting 2012 homicides in st louis

PREDICTING 2012 HOMICIDES IN ST. LOUIS

Alan Chang

Curt Rozycki

Kris Turner

IS 6833

SPRING 2012

slide2

Introduction

According to FBI crime reporting data, St. Louis was considered to be the most dangerous city in the United States in 2011.

An Index Score of 100 is equal to the national crime rate. This means that St. Louis had a crime rate of more than five times the national average.

slide3

Analysis Approach Flow Chart

Analysis Regression Model

(Individual)

Collect geographic data

Determine which models for 2011

Determine Individual

Variable

Project

Start

Run Multiple Regression

Analysis the X and Y variable

Linear Regression model for 2012

Predict the number of 2012

Project Close

slide6

Variable List

  • Population
  • Murder/capita
  • Race (White/Africa American/Asian)
  • Median Household Income
  • Education Level (Complete High School Degree)
  • Married
  • Male/Female Ratio
  • Have Children (under 18yrs)
  • Median Home Value
slide8

Regression Models

Total 16 different Models

slide9

Model Comparison (Regression Analysis)

16 Models Regression Analysis

slide10

Best Model

(Africa American + Murder/capita + Median Household Income + Education)

slide11

Estimate 79 different neighborhoods

Analysis 79 neighborhoods

2012 Total 194 Homicides

Result of the 2012

slide12

Predictions by Neighborhood

Red -=> 5

Yellow -2~4

Green -<2

  • Top dangerous neighborhoods
  • Fairground
  • Baden
  • Jeff Vanderlou
  • Dutchtown
slide13

How to improve the prediction

  • More updated yearly data by neighborhood
  • More variables need provide (guns holders/drug users/genders)
  • Other modeling method
slide14

Conclusion

The model presented can be used to provide information to decision makers, such as social worker, polices, and people who want buy a new house.

slide15

Reference

  • http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/02/16/the-11-most-dangerous-cities
  • St. Louis City Guide (Education level/Household income..)
  • http://www.areavibes.com/st.+louis-mo/neighborhoods/academy/areavibe/
  • St. Louis City Homicides data
  • http://www.slmpd.org/images/2011_Homicide_Data_For_Website.pdf
  • 2010 Census Data
  • http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t#none
  • St. Louis Crime Report
  • http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/stl-info/st-louis-crime-reports/html_84061828-6373-11df-
  • a1f4-0017a4a78c22.html?appSession=100825937889208