Bayesian Statistics & Innovative Trial Design. April 3, 2006 Jane Perlmutter [email protected] Topics. Introduction Bayesian vs. Frequentists Statistics Some Innovative Designs Adaptive Designs Random Discontinuation Designs “Out of the Box” Designs Conclusions. .
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Spiegelhalter, D. J. et.al. An Introduction to Bayesian Methods in Health Technology Assessment, BMJ, 319, 508-511 (1999).
e.g. prior results,
i.e. current experiment
Subjectivity associated with prior probabilities
Use Monte Carlo simulation methods
Use multiple scenarios and conduct sensitivity analyses or use uniform priorsChallenges Raised by Bayesian Approaches
Winkler, R.L. Why Bayesian Analysis Hasn’t Caught on in Healthcare Decision Making, International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 17:1, 56-66(2001).
Randomly & Equally Assign Patient
Observe & Predict Responses
Randomly & Unequally Assign Patients
Adaptive Trial Design
All Patients Receive
Respond?Randomized Discontinuation Design
Randomized Discontinuation Design
Agree to be
Yes“Out-of-the-Box” Clinical Trial
Out-of-the-Box Trial Design