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Let’s ENGINEER a MODERATE accident to the proposed HINKLEY POINT EPR - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Let’s ENGINEER a MODERATE accident to the proposed HINKLEY POINT EPR. First, we DEFINE the incident in terms of. Its PHASES. The RELEASE FRACTION of each PHASE. AIRBORNE DISPERSION. DEPOSITION & UPTAKE. SHORT, INTERIM & LONG TERM HEALTH DETRIMENT.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Let’s ENGINEER a MODERATE accident to the proposed HINKLEY POINT EPR

First, we DEFINE the incident in terms of

Its PHASES

The RELEASE FRACTION of each PHASE

AIRBORNE DISPERSION

DEPOSITION & UPTAKE

SHORT, INTERIM & LONG TERM HEALTH DETRIMENT

slide2

This PHASE scatters some radioactive shrapnel in and nearby the site and generates a puff that travels high on the prevailing wind

1ST PHASE

1) EXPLOSIVE PUFF

slide3

The reactor core is still very hot, nuclear criticality may have resumed, low energy dispersion continues – this PHASE may last several days

The LAST phase

3) THERMAL DRIFT

slide4

Here’s an example

BUNCEFIELD OIL STORAGE DEPOT 2006

HEMEL HEMPSTEAD

slide6

2) FIRE & DISPERSION

See how the heat of the fire DRIVES & DISPERSES the contaminants

slide7

3) THERMAL DRIFT

Here’s the lazy THERMAL DRIFT that went on for about a WEEK after the initial explosion

Doesn’t all of this look a little FAMILIAR ?

slide9

IMMEDIATE EVACUATION AND SHELTERING COUNTERMEASURES WERE IMPLEMENTED OVER THESE AREAS

THIS INVOLVED MORE THAN 5 MILLION PEOPLE – TODAY ABOUT 3 MILLION CONTINUE TO LIVE IN THE CONTAMINATED OR SANITARY ZONES

slide10

CENTRED AROUND HINKLEY THE CHERNOBYL COUNTERMEASURE ZONES WOULD BE DISPERSED LIKE THIS

We can ZOOM in on HINKLEY and BRIDWATER

slide12

30 km CHERNOBYL

(Present Exclusion Zone)

10 km Extendable REPPIR

Hinkley Point

2.4 km REPPIR

Bridgwater

(12.75km)

slide13

1st EXPLOSION

Now, let’s go back to our hypothetical incident for the EPR at HINKLEY

2nd DISPERSION/DEPOSITION

But in really fast time!

3rd THERMAL DRIFT

slide14

1 October 2008

Hinkley Point

slide15

29 August 2008

BURN

DRIFT

PUFF

Hinkley Point

slide16

START: 0600hrs 8 October

Hinkley Point

So wot about us lot in BRIDGWATER?

+18 hrs

How much warning do we get ?

Last WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY

+42 hrs

slide17

Depends on if a ‘CONTAINED’ situation is maintained prior to the RELEASE

Airborne Plume

Warning could be HOURS or MINUTES or NO warning at all for certain terrorist triggered events

PUFF + 6 hour BURN

RELEASE CEASES

8 October 2008

slide18

AND even though the plume has passed over BRIDGWATER it doesn’t mean that the RADIOACTIVITY has gone away

slide20

COMMENCES

0600 hours

Bridgwater

about 30 minutes

Isle of Wight

Bournemouth

+ 5 hrs

+ 3.5 hrs

slide21

The heavier FISSION fragments fall out and deposition on the ground and other surfaces

This is because of RADIOACTIVE FALL-OUT from the overhead plume

Ground Deposition

Evacuation/Sheltering Zones

slide22

Now we need to assess the RADIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES of the atmospheric PLUME and ground CONTAMINATION

possible

EVACUATION

LONG TERM

AGRICULTURAL MEASURES

EVACUATION

SHELTERING

slide23

RADIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES are all about the RELEASE FRACTION

I’m going to adopt the latest US Sequoyah RELEASE FRACTIONS for my analysis except for the EdF case

2 Sequoyah cases:

1) Terrorist Bomb 2) Aircraft Crash/Fire

slide24

PROBABILITY

EXPECTED

VALUE

41

early deaths

FLAMANVILLE

4,796

late deaths

Sizewell B Equivalent

LEU Fuel

evacuated

125,800

This is the French equivalent to Sizewell B

It’s similar to the EPR but SMALLER and fuel is LESS irradiated

slide25

PROBABILITY

EXPECTED VALUE

81

early deaths

late deaths

evacuated

41

early deaths

FLAMANVILLE

4,796

late deaths

Sizewell B Equivalent

LEU Fuel

evacuated

125,800

As expected, the very low release fractions assumed by EdF result in no early deaths

FLAMANVILLE

early deaths

6,212

late deaths

EPR

313,000

evacuated

LEU Fuel

Here, the same incident at an EPR results in x2 the early deaths

0

EdF Worst Case

4

LEU Fuel

2,458

slide26

In BRIDGWATER the Individual MEAN risk of SHORT TERM mortality is about 1 in 1,700

If I plot this data on a linear distance scale this is what it looks like – the preferred scientific scale here is

Log –v- Log

MORTALITY RISK

EARLY DEATHS

EARLY ILLNESS

and about 1 in 100 of related illness

Bridgwater

slide27

Projected over 50 years remaining lifetime, the Individual MEAN risk of LONG TERM mortality is about 1 in 240

LONG TERM

MORTALITY RISK

Bridgwater

slide28

Range of

RISK

This is the range of risk for SHORT TERM mortality – from the ‘MEAN’ to ‘99th Fractile’ projections

MORTALITY RISK

Worse is 1 in 16 compared to MEAN of 1 in 1000

Bridgwater

slide29

Sheltering would be required out to 6 to 30km and evacuation possibly out to 10km during the 1st day following the incident

For BRIDGWATER the EXPECTED 1 DAY radiation dose would be 16mSv or about 400mSv worse case.

INDIVIDUAL DOSE

These and the other projections are for a 1 DAY dose, if people remain in the area then evacuation may be required by later days

Evacuation

Sheltering

BRIDGWATERevacuation necessary in worse case

Bridgwater

slide30

THYROID DOSE

For both cases, BRIDGWATER would require Iodine Tablet issue during the 1st day

Prophylaxis required out from 15 to 40km from HINKLEY POINT

Saxmundham

slide31

£6 B

£26 B

600

MWe

EXISTING NPP

1600MWe EPR

LATEST US RELEASE

LATE HEALTH

EVACUATION

FOOD BANS

RELOCATION

DECONTAMINATION

£0.025 B

1600MWe EPR

EdF