Washington State Export Trends: Insights, Data, and Strategies for Growth

1. WA State Export Data & Trends Andrew J. Cassey School of Economic Sciences Washington State University March 2011 Andrew J. Cassey

2. Andrew J. Cassey • Ph.D. 2008 University of Minnesota • Dissertation: State Export Behavior and Policy • Advisors: Sam Kortum and Tom Holmes

3. Andrew J. Cassey • Ph.D. 2008 University of Minnesota • Dissertation: State Export Behavior and Policy • Advisors: Sam Kortum and Tom Holmes • Primary research interest in regional development through exportation • Informational barriers to trade, costs to begin to export • Export promotion policy

4. Andrew J. Cassey • Ph.D. 2008 University of Minnesota • Dissertation: State Export Behavior and Policy • Advisors: Sam Kortum and Tom Holmes • Primary research interest in regional development through exportation • Informational barriers to trade, costs to begin to export • Export promotion policy • Contact information • cassey@wsu.edu • 509-335-8334 • extecon.wsu.edu/pages/Regional_Economics • PO Box 646210, Hulbert Hall 101, Pullman, WA 99164

5. Outline of Webinar • State export data • How state export data is collected • How to interpret state export data • WSU Extension publication (FS006E) “The Collection and Description of Washington State Export Data” • Trends in Washington exports • Data and Graphs • WSU Extension publication “Export Trends in Washington State, Vol. 3” in press. • More information & Partners

6. Export Assistance Program • Create a culture of exporting • Support and extend outreach efforts to agricultural exporters • Conduct research to benefit new-to-export

7. Export Assistance Program • Create a culture of exporting • Support and extend outreach efforts to agricultural exporters • Conduct research to benefit new-to-export • Joint with IMPACT Center, SBDC, WSDA • A Primer on Exchange Rates & Exporting • Interviews with current successful Agricultural exports • Interviews with commodity associations • Re-vamp of WA Ag Suppliers database • Yunfei Zhao: Outreach • Andrew Cassey: Research

8. State Export Data: Census Bureau & Customs • Nominal • Data has not been adjusted for inflation • Cannot compare across years without modification • Best to use Producer Price Index for WA or Seattle-Bremerton-Tacoma (all-commodities, less fuel)

9. State Export Data: Census Bureau & Customs • Nominal • Data has not been adjusted for inflation • Cannot compare across years without modification • Best to use Producer Price Index for WA or Seattle-Bremerton-Tacoma (all-commodities, less fuel) • Reported either by product (HS) or by industry (NAICS) • Cannot get to low levels of disaggregation • 6 of 10 digit HS, 3 or 4 of 6 digit NAICS

10. State Export Data: Census Bureau & Customs • Nominal • Data has not been adjusted for inflation • Cannot compare across years without modification • Best to use Producer Price Index for WA or Seattle-Bremerton-Tacoma (all-commodities, less fuel) • Reported either by product (HS) or by industry (NAICS) • Cannot get to low levels of disaggregation • 6 of 10 digit HS, 3 or 4 of 6 digit NAICS • Services, low-value not counted • Only records objects passing through customs • Only records shipments of greater than $2500

11. State Export Data: Origin of Movement • Origin of Movement • Sales value at port of exit (not value-added) • Includes inland transportation cost • Does NOT include trans costs beyond U.S. ports • State where shipment begins international journey • State of consolidation of shipments • State of final processing

12. State Export Data: Origin of Movement • Origin of Movement • Sales value at port of exit (not value-added) • Includes inland transportation cost • Does NOT include trans costs beyond U.S. ports • State where shipment begins international journey • State of consolidation of shipments • State of final processing • Consolidation “problems” biggest for unprocessed mining & agricultural exports • Personal Preference: NAICS industries, not product codes • Not easy (possible) to derive employment or value-added due to exports

13. State Export Data: Data Collection • Shipper’s Export Declaration & AES • Customs • Census Bureau • WISER: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research

14. Export Trends in Washington • Inflation-adjusted time series data (Base year 1982-1984) • Specific industries • Emphasize exports in the context of overall sales

15. Export Trends in Washington • Inflation-adjusted time series data (Base year 1982-1984) • Specific industries • Emphasize exports in the context of overall sales • Useful for: • Assessing industry export prospects • Gauging Washington economic healthWA largest exporter in terms of export share of shipments

16. Export Trends to World by Industry • Aerospace increase by 20%: rebound from strike • Overall increase by 2% • WA exports driven by Aerospace

17. Export Trends to World by Industry • Decrease in other large export industries • Should not measure state success with total export data

18. Exports as Percent of Shipments by Industry • Exports more important for WA than U.S. • Exports increasingly important for Nav. Instruments

19. Number of Countries Importing by Industry • General increase in destinations • Decrease in destinations in 2009Decrease in exports from less countries or less sales?

20. Processed Ag Exports by Industry • All decrease in 2009 except oilseed (is this from WA?) • Trend winners: fruit & oilseed

21. Exports as Percent of Shipments by Industry • WA industries match national average until 2007 • Decrease in domestic shipments: diversification • Exports increasingly important for Dairy

22. Number of Countries Importing Ag by Industry

23. Summary • 2009 exports up 2% over 2008 • Increase due to aerospace and not overall • Most other export industries shrank in 2009 • Grain and oilseed milling is hot export industryFollowed by fruit & vegetable preserves

24. Summary • 2009 exports up 2% over 2008 • Increase due to aerospace and not overall • Most other export industries shrank in 2009 • Grain and oilseed milling is hot export industryFollowed by fruit & vegetable preserves • Exports important for diversification of sales • Important to monitor % of sales and # of countries

25. More Information • Trade Stats Express:Limited free export data, by industry and country • Department of Commerce Int’l Business:General info, Quarterly Trade Bulletin, destination focus • Commerce Quarterly Trade Bulletin • Small Business Development Center:Extensive network • International Trade Alliance Spokane:New-to-export training sessions • Trade Development Alliance Seattle:Trade missions

26. Appendix

27. Percent Change in Exports by Industry

28. Percent Change in Ag Exports by Industry