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8th Annual IAFIE ConferenceIntelligence Education:Theory and Practice23 May 2012Use of Case Studies and Structured Analytic Techniques in Intel Studies: USCGA Example CDR Toni N. Gay, LCDR Duane B. Ripley, 1/C Ann K. Fecskovics Strategic Intelligence Studies, U.S. Coast Guard Academy
Introduction • Why use case studies in Intelligence Studies? • Why teach course on intel collections/analysis? • How/where new class fits @ CGA • Construct of course • Cognitive Psychology/institutional pitfalls • Intel Collections (human and technical) • Structured Analytical Techniques • Final exam/Mumbai simulation exercise (maritime) • Uses all elements studied over course of semester • Hear from student(s) the value of SIMEX
Why Use Cases? • Stimulate the classroom environment • Application of real world scenarios to theoretical frameworks • Utilize group/teamwork approach to problem solving • Application of prepared intelligence briefings to policy/decision maker
Example Case The Cuban Missile Crisis October 1962
Cuban Missile Case Outcomes • History into the classroom • Students relive the crisis • Analyze imagery • Group exercise • Source confidence • Intel brief to policy maker • Role of Intelligence/Policy Source: http://www.spymuseum.org/minute-minute-role-intelligence-cuban-missile-crisis-0
Example Case Marine Barracks Bombing Beirut 23 OCT 1983
Getting Them to Think • What is your analysis of the reasons for the outcome described in this case study? • Do you think the effects of the attack could have been prevented or mitigated? How? Be specific. • How do you think responsibility for this event should be allocated? • Enforce Critical Thinking Why? “Because wisdom can't be told.” -- Thomas W. Shreeve & Assoc. Source: http://www.intelcasestudies.com
Example Case Theoretical Security Zone Incursion Activity
Application toCoast Guard Operations Analysis indicates, with a moderate degree of confidence, that a waterborne attack is imminent against the C/S FREEDOM OF THE SEAS on or about Friday 25 Oct 2002. Indications & warning (I&W) identify the likely method of attack will be multiple waterborne improvised explosive devises (WBIEDs). • Link Analysis of raw data • Utilizing simple techniques • Real world mission role • Identifying potential threat
Thoughts on Teaching Analysis/ “Critical Thinking” in Higher Ed • Intelligence education should accentuate critical thinking and the application of theoretical constructs into current events. (Frerichs and Di Rienzo, “Establishing a Framework for Intelligence Education and Training,” JFQ-62/NDU Press.) • Critical thinking is the art of analyzing and evaluating thinking with a view to improving it • Thinks open mindedly within alternative systems of thought, recognizing and assessing, as need be, their assumptions, implications, and practical consequences. (Richard Paul and Linda Elder, Critical Thinking Concepts and Tools, Foundation for Critical Thinking Press, 2009.)
Thoughts on Teaching Analysis in Higher Ed . . . in many subject areas relating to intelligence, it may be preferable to design assessment items which promote a deeper learning outcome. For example, the teacher could set a question for research. . .which requires them to analyse it rather than commit facts to memory. This approach helps reinforce. . .critical thinking, research skills and analysis. . . (Patrick F. Walsh, Intelligence and Intelligence Analysis, Routledge, 2011.)
My Challenges to Develop a Course • Cadets asked for “more intel,” and “what’s next?” • My Primary Focus: • Getting it through curriculum committee • Pitch: To provide mechanism for critical thinking • Provide cadets deeper look at intel failures/successes • Most often times collection failures • Not applied/Not educating entry level analysts/practitioners • Generalist junior officers/afloat-operations • Possible future USCG or intel practitioners • Most likely scenario: future USCG intel consumers • Intelligence process focused, but analytical learning for all
Where 2464/2375 Fits • Government Majors/Electives in Humanities Dept. • 2469 National Security Policy (or Homeland Security Policy) • 2281 Intelligence and Democracy • NEW: 2464 Selected Topics in Public Policy: Strategic Intelligence Collections and Analysis (Spring 2012) • Focus Area: (Intel Continuum) Major component new Security Studies Concentration in Humanities • All Majors/Electives in Humanities Dept. • 2481 Intelligence and National Security Policy (prerequisite) • NEW: 2464 Selected Topics in Public Policy: Strategic Intelligence Collections and Analysis (Spring 2012) • Focus Areas: Engineering Cadets/NSA-CG Crypto; Science Cadets (MES/others in GIS classes)/NGA and CG-2/ICC support
Course Outline First segment: Intelligence Analysis • What intel analysis should do and for whom • What can go wrong in a big way • Analytical reasoning and cognitive issues (mindsets/biases/group think, etc.) • Politicization/irrelevance Books/Readings • Richards J. Heuer, Jr., Psychology of Intelligence Analysis • George and Bruce, Analyzing Intelligence, Origins, Obstacles and Innovations
Course Outline Second segment: Intelligence Collections • Much emphasis put recently on intel analysis • 9-11 Commission Report “connect the dots” • Intel Reform and Terror Prevention Act 2004 • “Duelfer Report” Iraq WMD, key assumptions, “Chronic Misperceptions” • Understanding collections critical to intel analysis • Intel collections (classified sources/methods) • Obtaining info not readily available • What makes intel analyst unique from policy analyst • Studying two areas more gives cadets deeper dive
Course Outline Second segment: Intelligence Collections (cont.) • Human Intelligence & Technical Intelligence • Literal: Human communication (human sources) • Non-literal: Non-human communications • Signatures (measurement of non-literal data) and patterns (analysis of signatures) • Platforms vs. sensors (satellite or UAV platform); Imagery, Communications signals collected via sensors Books: • Mark Lowenthal, Intelligence from Secrets to Policy • Robert M. Clark , Technical Collection of Intelligence Guest Speakers: • S/A Dave Britten, FBI, Senior Case Agent “Lakawanna Six” • Mr. George Sims, National Reconnaissance Office (Secret)
Introduction to Structured Analytical Techniques (SATs) Occurs between segments two and three • Structured techniques do two things: • Decompose the problem (break down a problem set) • Externalize or visualize (show elements and how related Book: Richards J. Heuer, Jr., and Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence
Thoughts on SATs Intelligence analysts must traverse a minefield of potential errors. . .The risks in intelligence analysis can never be eliminated, but one way to minimize them is through more structured and disciplined thinking about thinking. (John McLaughlin, Senior Research Fellow, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University and former Deputy Director, Central Intelligence Agency and Acting Direct of Central Intelligence, Forward in Heuer, Pherson Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis)
Advocacy for Scientific Methods • Sherman Kent advocated application of the techniques of “scientific” study of the past to analysis of complex ongoing situations and estimates of likely future events • Kent had a profound impact on early generations of analysts and his work continues to exert influence among the analytic profession. (Jack Davis, Forward in Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, 1999)
Improves Collaboration and Team Performance • . . .structured analytic techniques are the process by which collaboration becomes most effective. . . • Our experience is that this process helps to avoid the multiple pitfalls and pathologies that often degrade the performance of small teams or groups. . . (Richards J. Heuer, Jr., Presentation to the National Academy of Science, National Research Council Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, Washington, DC, December 8, 2009.
Combines Art and Science of Intelligence One recurring element in successful debiasing procedures is helping individuals to organize their thought processes without losing the intuition and judgment that their tasks require. (“Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral Social Sciences Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security,” Report Brief, March 2011, Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council of the National Academies, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.)
Source: Heuer, Pherson Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis What Kinds of SATs?
Course Outline • Last segment, practiced structured techniques • Case Studies from Beebe, Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis • Colombia’s FARC attacks the U.S. Homeland • Who murdered Jonathan Luna? • Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko? • Used: Structured Brainstorming; Star Bursting; Red Hat Analysis; Multiple Scenario Generation; Analysis of Competing Hypotheses; Key Assumptions Check; Indicators
Final Exam/End of Semester Simulation Exercise (SIMEX) • Three days in classroom time w/homework • Open source info/data • Mumbai, India scenario (maritime element) • Simulates collaborative/team environment/tight deadlines • Unclear/ambiguous, incomplete info (REAL WORLD!) • Deliverables: • Individual Brief Item • Small Team Deliverable • Entire Group: Group Written Paper/Group Brief
Run up to SIMEX/Final Tasking • Told them I was most interested in process • Told to show me “HOW” they came to conclusions • Final deliverables • Written bullets then written analysis • Oral briefing for “senior policy maker” SIMEX Cadet Participants • 1/c Alex Berg, Delta Company • 1/c Andrew Gavelek, Charlie Company • 1/c Justin Sikora, Alfa Company • 2/c Annie Fecskovics, Hotel Company
SIMEX Out Brief • Discussed findings • Discussed methods used to • Brainstorm • Generate Hypotheses • Collaborate • Support conclusions • Viewed real world Mumbai intel on SIPRNet
In Summary • Sound analytic thinking and good communication requires two major things: • Conceptualizing • Focus/Statement of synthesis • Develop argument/Advance a line of reasoning • Crafting • Plain talk/Efficient conveyance of ideas • Writing that informs, persuades busy reader(s) • Writing that stresses: clarity, speed, structure (Analytic Thinking and Presentation for Intelligence Producers, CIA)
Questions? CDR Toni Gay 860-701-6297 LCDR Duane Ripley 860-701-6528