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Project Management Lecture 19. Project management involves estimating the length of time to complete a project Once a project has been undertaken then a project manager is responsible for carrying out the project on the assigned time table How do the managers establish a time schedule

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project management lecture 19
Project Management Lecture 19
  • Project management involves estimating the length of time to complete a project
  • Once a project has been undertaken then a project manager is responsible for carrying out the project on the assigned time table
  • How do the managers establish a time schedule
    • Generally based on average length of time for each component
    • Average length of time based on past experience
  • Length of time to complete each step is a random variable
slide2
Materials for Lecture 19
  • Readings Chapter 14
  • Lecture 19 Short Project Management.XLSX
  • Lecture 19 Project Management.XLSX
  • Lecture 19 Event Management.XLSX
  • Lecture 19 Have Some Fun.XLSX
project management
Project Management
  • Who does project management?
    • Engineers, managers, accountants
    • They calculate number of days to completion
  • They do not incorporate risk most times
  • Benefits of incorporating risk into project management analysis
    • Assign a probability to number of days until project completion
    • Assign a probability to getting a project done in a fixed timeframe
project management1
Project Management
  • KOV for a project management problem is: How long will it take?
  • There is no final answer until project is completed
  • Answer is an unknown PDF of days, weeks, or months to completion
  • Simulation provides a methodology for estimating unknown PDFs
  • Formulate the problem as a Monte Carlo simulation problem
project management2
Project Management
  • Model formulation
    • KOV is Number of Days to completion
    • Identify each task (step) for project
    • Specify order of each task for the project
      • Identify bottlenecks where tasks will wait on precious stages
    • Determine the PDFs for number of days (or weeks, months, etc.) to complete each task
      • Rely onexperience for past jobs
      • Depend on experts for time to complete each task
      • PDF may be dependent on resources available
project management3
Project Management
  • Critical to identify the order of the tasks and their linkages (dependencies)
  • For example
    • Task 10 starts after Tasks 5 and 8 are completed
    • Task 11 starts after Task 10 is completed
  • Thus, Task 5 or 8 could hold up the whole project
    • If analysis shows 5 is the bottleneck is it worth investing more resources in Task 5 to get the project completed earlier?
project management4
Project Management
  • Create a simple Project Network Diagram to summarize the order of tasks
  • Drawn it in Excel with simple arrows and boxes
  • Network diagram shows potential bottlenecks
project management5
Project Management
  • Tasks 1-6, 2 and 3 wait on 1, 4 waits on 2, 5 waits on 3 and 4, last task waits on 5
  • Assumes next task starts day after it predecessor ends
  • Days in column C are GRKS() stochastic
project management6
Project Management
  • Finite limit to complete the project is 45 days
  • P(Days>45)=?
project management7
Project Management
  • I like to add a second KOV – Cost
  • We know cost of a project is stochastic
  • So project management model can simulate PDFs for days and cost
  • In the example $/day costs for each task are multiplied by stochastic days
event planner
Event Planner
  • Event planner KOVs
    • Number of days ahead to start planning an event
    • Cost of the event
  • Research application KOVs
    • Time to complete a research project
    • Cost of project
  • Wedding planner
    • Probability of being ready on time
    • Cost of the event
  • Banquet planner
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