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ROCA CGE model for Poland Regional Options of Carbon Abatement model. Leszek Kasek World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region Skopje, March 1, 2011 Prospects for Green Growth in Macedonia. Methodological approach. Issues.

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roca cge model for poland regional options of carbon abatement model

ROCA CGE model for PolandRegional Options of Carbon Abatement model

LeszekKasek

World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region

Skopje, March 1, 2011

Prospects for Green Growth in Macedonia. Methodological approach

issues
Issues
  • EU energy and climatepackage 20-20-20: myriad of policy instruments
  • GHG reductiontargets
  • Structure of theROCA model
  • Policy issuesanalyzed
  • Mainresults
slide3

EU energy and climatepackage

20-20-20

Source: World Bank Staff.

slide4

Target

Scope

  • GHG emissions -20%/-30% vs. 1990 EU27
  • Energy efficiency +20% vs. BaU EU27
  • Renewables‘ share 20% PE EU27
  • Biofuels 10% Transp. fuels each MS

Policy Background: EU Climate and Energy Package

Policy targets until 2020 (EU Summit March 2007):

What is in the package:

  • 20% unilateral reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to 1990 (30% conditional on comparable efforts in other regions)
  • Energy efficiency improvement of 20% as compared to the business-as-usual (BaU) in 2020
  • 20% renewables share in primary energy consumption (10% renewable energy in transport)
slide5

Poland’scommitments20-20-20

Source: World Bank Staff based on EU regulations.

nominal and effective emission reduction targets in 2020 for poland and the eu
Nominal and effective emission reduction targets in 2020 for Poland and the EU

Source: World Bank Staff based on EU regulations.

slide8

Hous-

Hous-

hold

hold

Hybrid CGE Model: Large-Scale Implementation

CGE framework with more detailed technology representation

Other

Other

regions

regions

EU 27

EU 27

&

&

other

other

goods

goods

Exports of

Exports of

energy

energy

energy

energy

Demand

Demand

for

for

other

other

goods

goods

&

&

Imports of

Imports of

energy

energy

&

&

other

other

goods

goods

Petroleum products

Iron andSteel

Che-

Other

Other

Rest of

Paper,Pulp, Printing

Transport

Electricity

Agri.

Food

mical

ETS

EII

ind.

prod.

Nuclear

Hydro

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Wind

Income

cycle

Non ETS

Non ETS

GHG target

GHG target

ETS

ETS

Renewables

Renewables

Renewable target

slide10

Policy Issues

  • Excess cost and incidence of emission market segmentation:
    • Inefficient split of abatement targets for ETS and non-ETS
    • Implications of
      • CDM provisions for ETS and non-ETS
      • Coverage of ETS
    • Outcome-based allocation of abatement burden (comparable efforts)
  • Excess cost and incidence of overlapping regulation:
    • Renewable targets
    • Interaction with initial (energy) taxes and subsidies
  • Unilateral policy measures and emission leakage:
    • Global cost-effectiveness of subglobal climate policies
    • Adjustment measures for energy- and trade-intensive industries (output-based allocation, import tariffs, tax rebates)
  • Member State’s implementation:
    • Non-ETS regulation
    • Use of revenues from ETS/non-ETS regulation
main eu 3x20 policy scenario macroeconomic effects
MAIN EU 3x20 policyscenario – macroeconomiceffects

‘Main’ scenario: macroeconomic variables 2020, in % vs. BAU