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ROCA CGE model for Poland Regional Options of Carbon Abatement model

ROCA CGE model for Poland Regional Options of Carbon Abatement model. Leszek Kasek World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region Skopje, March 1, 2011 Prospects for Green Growth in Macedonia. Methodological approach. Issues.

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ROCA CGE model for Poland Regional Options of Carbon Abatement model

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  1. ROCA CGE model for PolandRegional Options of Carbon Abatement model LeszekKasek World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region Skopje, March 1, 2011 Prospects for Green Growth in Macedonia. Methodological approach

  2. Issues • EU energy and climatepackage 20-20-20: myriad of policy instruments • GHG reductiontargets • Structure of theROCA model • Policy issuesanalyzed • Mainresults

  3. EU energy and climatepackage 20-20-20 Source: World Bank Staff.

  4. Target Scope • GHG emissions -20%/-30% vs. 1990 EU27 • Energy efficiency +20% vs. BaU EU27 • Renewables‘ share 20% PE EU27 • Biofuels 10% Transp. fuels each MS Policy Background: EU Climate and Energy Package Policy targets until 2020 (EU Summit March 2007): What is in the package: • 20% unilateral reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to 1990 (30% conditional on comparable efforts in other regions) • Energy efficiency improvement of 20% as compared to the business-as-usual (BaU) in 2020 • 20% renewables share in primary energy consumption (10% renewable energy in transport)

  5. Poland’scommitments20-20-20 Source: World Bank Staff based on EU regulations.

  6. Nominal and effective emission reduction targets in 2020 for Poland and the EU Source: World Bank Staff based on EU regulations.

  7. ROCA at a glance

  8. Hous- Hous- hold hold Hybrid CGE Model: Large-Scale Implementation CGE framework with more detailed technology representation Other Other regions regions EU 27 EU 27 & & other other goods goods Exports of Exports of energy energy energy energy Demand Demand for for other other goods goods & & Imports of Imports of energy energy & & other other goods goods Petroleum products Iron andSteel Che- Other Other Rest of Paper,Pulp, Printing Transport Electricity Agri. Food mical ETS EII ind. prod. Nuclear Hydro Biomass Coal Oil Gas Wind Income cycle Non ETS Non ETS GHG target GHG target ETS ETS Renewables Renewables Renewable target

  9. Sectors and regions inthe model

  10. Policy Issues • Excess cost and incidence of emission market segmentation: • Inefficient split of abatement targets for ETS and non-ETS • Implications of • CDM provisions for ETS and non-ETS • Coverage of ETS • Outcome-based allocation of abatement burden (comparable efforts) • Excess cost and incidence of overlapping regulation: • Renewable targets • Interaction with initial (energy) taxes and subsidies • Unilateral policy measures and emission leakage: • Global cost-effectiveness of subglobal climate policies • Adjustment measures for energy- and trade-intensive industries (output-based allocation, import tariffs, tax rebates) • Member State’s implementation: • Non-ETS regulation • Use of revenues from ETS/non-ETS regulation

  11. MAIN EU 3x20 policyscenario – macroeconomiceffects ‘Main’ scenario: macroeconomic variables 2020, in % vs. BAU

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