70’s 80’s 99-02

1. Ocean Conditions and Salmon Marine Survival Robert L Emmett and Bill MuirFish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries2725 Montlake Boulevard East, Seattle, WA 98112

2. Ocean Conditions 70’s 80’s 99-02 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

3. Pacific Decadal Oscillation since 1940 Warm Period

4. PDO since January 2009 Jan Aug Jun

5. Working hypothesis: Biological Communities significantly different under cold and warm PDO’s Figures courtesy of Kirstin K. Holsman, NWFSC, Seattle, WA

6. Ocean Conditions 13 year time series of zooplankton sampling off Newport shows that monthly anomalies of copepod species richness are correlated with the PDO As with SST, there are time lags of a few months between the 4-year “cold periods” and “warm periods”. Cold periods are characterized by “cold water” copepods and warm periods by “warm water” copepods

7. Ocean Conditions 1999 2001 Sea surface temperature anomalies May 1998-2010 2007 2004 2002 2005 2006 2008 2003 2000 2009 2010

8. Ocean Conditions 2010 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Feb Jan Mar Apr Jun Aug May Jul Oct Sep

9. Predicting Salmon Runs – William Peterson, NWFSC http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/features/predicting_salmon_runs.cfm

10. Zooplankton Densities 2010 Shallow Station Mooring breaks loose Deep Station

11. Forage Fish Abundance 2010 Mooring breaks loose

12. June 2010 Juvenile Salmon Survey Catches

13. September 2010 Juvenile Salmon Survey Catches

14. 2010 Summary • Early El Nino and positive PDO – but not very big

15. 2010 Summary • Early El Nino and positive PDO – but not very big • Warm ocean in winter but turned around by late spring (maybe a little too late to help)

16. 2010 Summary • Early El Nino and positive PDO – but not very big • Warm ocean in winter but turned around by late spring (maybe a little too late to help) • Not a good spring for spring Chinook, chum, sockeye, coho, and steelhead

17. 2010 Summary • Early El Nino and positive PDO – but not very big • Warm ocean in winter but turned around by late spring (maybe a little too late to help) • Not a good spring for spring Chinook, chum, sockeye, coho, and steelhead • Summer was anomalously cool (negative PDO)– good for fall Chinook

18. What do we expect in 2011

19. What do we expect in 2011 Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival

20. What do we expect in 2011 Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival Relatively high spring flows – also good for marine survival (larger plume)

21. What do we expect in 2011 Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival Relatively high spring flows – also good for marine survival (larger plume) Fewer sardines – they like warm ocean

22. What do we expect in 2011 Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival Relatively high spring flows – also good for marine survival (larger plume) Fewer sardines – they like warm ocean More anchovy, smelt, and herring – cool species

23. What do we expect in 2011 Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival Relatively high spring flows – also good for marine survival (larger plume) Fewer sardines – they like warm ocean More anchovy, smelt, and herring – cool species More large copepods – food for things that Chinook and coho eat and food for sockeye and chum salmon