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ECommerce Institute, LLC San Diego, California
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  1. ECommerce Institute, LLCSan Diego, California “Future” also known as “NOW”

  2. Forget the Internet!

  3. Need 10 teraflops?Please Turn it ON -- TeraGrid Network provides 13,6 trillion floating-points operations per second (teraflops)

  4. TeraGrid • More than 3,300 Itanium processors using Linux from IBM • More than 13.6 trillion instructions per second • More than 450 terabytes of storage • Operational 2002 • Applications • Molecular modeling for disease detection, cures and drug discovery • Automobile crash simulations • Research on alternative energy sources • Climate and atmospheric simulations for more accurate weather predictions “The real long term is that this becomes the problem-solving mechanism for society.” Ken Kennedy

  5. Grids In the first phase we got the wires up and hooked in all computers Then, we started hooking in all online documents Now…we’ll be hooking in EVERYTHING ELSE…

  6. Seamless computational universe “…emergence of a new infrastructure upon which … the whole economy will be built…” Larry Smarr California Institute of Telecom and Information Technology

  7. New Human Experience Virtual World as … UTILITY

  8. It is commonly observed that people overestimate the short-term impact of change but underestimate long-term effects

  9. WWW.EU-DataGrid.Org “Imagine that you could plug your computer into the wall and have access to huge computing resources immediately, just as you plug in a lamp to get instant light.” “Possible outreaches are: providing access to the most powerful computing facilities to remote and less developed areas…”

  10. Preparing an “E-Utility” Project eLiza and Grids From IBM • Project eLiza – building self-managing systems • Server farms protect themselves from hackers • Heal themselves when something breaks • Upgrade themselves as needed • Continue operating without human intervention • Grids – link vast computer resources • Connect all of IBM’s worldwide data centers • Provide computing resources on demand • Creating a huge virtual computing environment • “This is about the next big thing” IBM • Standards from Globus, Global Grid Forum, W3C, & OMG

  11. Are you in? • Uncle Bill is in -- Windows XP translation • Cray, HP, Sun, Fujitsu, Hitachi, NEC, et al

  12. "Caught up in the growth of the internet, we seem to have lost sight of the earth's deteriorating health. It would be a mistake to confuse the vibrancy of the virtual world with the increasingly troubled state of the real world." Lester R. Brown, Worldwatch

  13. “We used to live in villages. We’re moving toward a global village now, so perhaps it’s inevitable … we will know all about our neighbors again.” Carole Lane, Naked in Cyberspace

  14. Bioinformatics • New field using IT to better understand biology • Human Genome project has created vast databases • Data mining to find new medical treatments and drugs “when and in which tissues of the body various genes of the body are turned on, the shapes of proteins the genes encode, how the proteins interact with one another and the role those interactions play in disease.” Scientific American 7/01 • Blue Gene, IBM’s $100 million bio-supercomputer • >1 quadrillion operations per second • One petaflop (million billion floating point operations/second) • If applied to bandwidth, would download the contents on the entire Internet in one second • Faster than the top 500 computers in the world put together • Fits in two refrigerator-sized units

  15. North Carolina Bioinformatics Grid(BioGrid) • Teraflop supercomputer and petabytes of storage • To analyze vast genome databases • North Carolina agencies in partnership with IBM (Nov/2001) • Uses TCP/IP to connect all computing resources • All resources accessed transparently as if in the same building • Using advanced scheduling and management software • Network links at 10 gbps • Minimum speed to participate is 2.5 gbps

  16. Most Grids Today Are Government Sponsored • UK National Grid for EGovernment is in operation • IBM and Oxford design

  17. Grid Sampling • Access Grid • European Data Grid • Information Power Grid • iVDGL • NEESgrid • TeraGrid • UK National Grid • Unicore Grid

  18. Free Space Optics Vendors CompanyBandwidthRange AirFiber 622 mbps .2-.5 km AstroTerra 10-155 mbps .5-3.75 km Canon 25-622 mbps 2 km CBL GmbH 2-155 mbps 2 km fSona 155-622 mbps 4 km Jolt up to 155 mbps 2 km Lucent up to 2.5 gbps n/a LightPointe 20-622 mbps 4 km LSA Photonics 155 mbps 3+ KM Optical Access up to 1.25 gbps varies OrAccess up to 622 mbps n/a PAV Data up to 270 mbps 6 km Plaintree Systems 100 mbps 2.5 km Silcom 10-155 mbps .3 km Tellaire up tp 100 mbps n/a Terabeam up to 1 gbps 1 km

  19. Sky Bridge • Alcatel. Loral, Qualcomm • 80 satellites – fixed broadband multimedia • CDMA • 2 mbps upstream • Up to 20 mbps downstream • Higher rates via channel aggregation • Capacity for more than 20 million users • No on-board data processing • $700 terminals • 200 terrestrial gateways • Service 2001 for $6 billion

  20. What is the Internet? • Tiered Internet Service Providers AT&T DT NAP CAP BT

  21. Internet Data Center • High-value applications require a data center • Opens opportunities for selling • Disaster recovery services • Content delivery networks • Storage services • Managed services of many types • Becoming a NAP and CAP for your area • Will attract international players

  22. I-21: The World's Fastest Network

  23. The World’s Fastest Networks • 1.28 tbps – terabits per second • 1,280,000,000,000 • The world’s only Petabit network • 1,228,000,000,000,000 bps

  24. Internet To Mars InterPlaNetary (IPN) Internet

  25. Direct Retinal Connection

  26. SENDING Wearable Computers

  27. Magic Book explores the transition between Physical Reality, Augmented Reality (AR), and immersive Virtual Reality (VR) in a collaborative setting.

  28. “ Do not be bullied by authoritative pronouncements about what machines will never do. Such statements are based on pride, not fact” Marvin Minsky, MIT (1982)

  29. “In the past, shoes could stink. In the present, shoes could blink. In the future, shoes will think.” Students, MIT

  30. The Paradigm Shift • Decade Dominance • 1980s - PC underpinned by microprocessors • 1990s - World Wide Web underpinned by cheap lasers • Emphasis shift from processing to access • 2000s?

  31. Sensors and Nanotechnology • The paradigm shifts from processing to access • The next wave: interaction • People accessing people in information-rich environments

  32. Agents – Anthropomorphic Computing • Anthropomorphic Computing • Ask Jeeves – offers a list of questions it can answer • Red from Neuromedia – “Chatterbot” • Demos automated customer service • Klone Server from Big Science • Voice Recognition • ViaVoice (IBM) • Naturally Speaking (Dragon) • Bruzard from MIT shows emotions

  33. Technologies Underpinning Sensors • MicroElectoMechanical Systems (MEMS) • Piezo-Materials • Micromachines • Very large scale intergration (VLSI) video • Other Sensor technologies

  34. Next Wave: Things that Think • You haven’t seen anything yet. • Never mind PCs and mainframes. Think photocopiers, refineries, heart monitors, cameras - and just about anything else that can hold a computer chip. Plug a constellation of devices into the Internet and the myriad gadgets of everyday life will get smarter and more useful. When people hook up their PCs to the World Wide Web, they transform glorified typewriters into windows on a world of information. The Internet can do the same for countless other things and forge new bonds with customers at the same time, a growing number of companies believe.

  35. Micronodes connected to Grids Thanks to wireless revolution, micronodes are everywhere Billions of endpoints -- sensors, actuators, embedded processors, monitoring the environment and your bodies.

  36. Decade of Interaction Camera Camera NETWORK Basis for New Interactions PC PC

  37. Search Economies Will Dominate • Net: search economies will supercede distribution economies • Huge efficiencies • Find a digital camera with 4X zoom and 500,000+ pixels • Netmarket.com vs. physical visits • Save consumers’ time!

  38. Search Economies Will Dominate • Net: search economies will supercede distribution economies

  39. SO WHAT?Does IT just happen to you?orDo you make IT happen?

  40. Define Required Core Competencies • Identify and/or Build a set of Core Competencies

  41. Core Competence Definition • Combination of particular technical and management capabilities • Provide leadership position in development of generic or core products • Results in sustainable competitive advantage • NOT simply possession of a specific technical or management capability

  42. Honda Example Honda in 1950s Small Engine Design Focused on a limited set of activities in order to achieve a leadership position (worldwide) - high quality/low cost efficient small engines Moderate Scale Assembly with Outsourcing Creative Distribution MOTORCYLCLES A necessary product for crowded, low-income postwar Japan Honda in 1980s Small Engine Design Dominant in key activities - world leader in high quality small engines Outsourcing used to achieve all around “best-in-world” status Moderate Scale Assembly with Outsourcing Creative Distribution Motor- cycles Small cars Pumps Generators Out- boards Lawn- mowers Snow- blowers

  43. Creating A Successful Project List • Enabling Infrastructure • E-Enabled Government • Laws and Policies • Enabling Infrastructure Projects • Choose a “National Strategic Intent” • Define required core competencies and a related implementation plan • Detail education/training plan • Design and implement the network infrastructure using latest technologies • Form an Vertical Accelerator-type of Incubator focused on Strategic Intent companies • Open a regional Technology Stock Exchange • Build electronic marketplaces to serve regional stakeholders -- explore GRIDS!

  44. …More projects • E-Enabled Government Projects • IT Governance • Internet Data Center • Government Portals • Marketing Plan • Technology Tracking • Public Key Infrastructure • Law and Policy Projects • Review and extend laws • Review and extend policies

  45. “You cannot predict the future, but you can build it.” Alan Kay

  46. The Opportunity Where are we? Who are we? Where are we going?

  47. Is it a better world?

  48. THANK YOU!