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Projecting Need: How a Little Bit of Data Can Go a Long Way

Learn how data analysis can help project the housing needs of Connecticut's homeless population and make informed decisions for resource allocation.

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Projecting Need: How a Little Bit of Data Can Go a Long Way

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  1. Projecting Need How a little bit of data can go a long way Beau Anderson MPA CAN Manager, Data Analysis beau.anderson@ct.gov (860) 416-0552 More examples of advanced data usage can be found at www.CTCANData.org

  2. Let’s set the scene In Connecticut, our state and federally funded housing resources are reserved for households who are active on the By Name List Calls to 2-1-1 Diversion & Rapid Exit Diversion & Rapid Exit CAN Appt. Scheduled Diversion & Rapid Exit Diversion & Rapid Exit CAN Appt. Attended Diversion & Rapid Exit Diversion & Rapid Exit B N L CAN stands for Coordinated Access Network and CANs are how we organize the work within our statewide system. Section 8 set-aside Self-Resolve CAN Housing Solutions Meetings Rapid Re-Housing Supportive Housing

  3. Version 1 – BNL Estimate of Need (BEN) How many units of housing do we need to resolve the homelessness of everyone currently active in our system—and coming in—by next year? 1 3 Use actual historical BNL data from most recent 6 months to calculate the following: Sum the households needing resource from the active list and the projected inflow to get… Total Households Needing Resource over 12 months Projected Monthly Inflow Projected Monthly Self-Resolved Projected Monthly Inactive 2 Last summer, the projection was that we need housing resources to resolve all CT homelessness in the next 12 months. Apply outflow projections to current active list and projected 12 months’ inflow: 3,389 Current Active List Projected Monthly Inflow (x12) % Projected to Self-Resolve over 12 months Projected Monthly Self-Resolved (x12) % Projected Monthly Inactive over 12 months Projected Monthly Inactive (x12) That’s a Big BEN!Other than being useful in this visual pun, there’s not much else we can do with this number… Households needing resource (from active list) Households needing resource (from projection)

  4. Version 2 – BNL Projection Tool How many households will be active on the BNL at some future date, such as 18 months from now? # Active Today Monthly Avg. Net Inflow # Active in 18 Months 18 - 100 2 18 136 64

  5. Net Inflow The real utility of this projection tool is to see the components of the net inflow, and see the impact of changes House more people! Data cleanup is critical Diversion and Rapid Exit

  6. An example: creating turnover, reducing inflow CT Department of Housing designates 1 of every 3 turnover tenant-based Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers for young homeless families* In the first 12 months, 30 Sec. 8 vouchers could be used to move families out of Rapid ReHousing and Supportive Housing, creating turnover in those resources. Then see what happens if you commit to reducing inflow through increased diversion/rapid exit efforts. A modest inflow decrease of 10% makes a big difference! *LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS HERE: 7.05 Public Housing Authorities: Their Role in Ending Homelessness Wed. July 24 – 9am to 10:15am Maryland AB

  7. This is just the beginning We are still learning a lot about how to project need and our tool is far from perfect… Can you build turnover percentages into your calculations? How do you account for people not on the BNL? What about length of time it takes to house clients? Can you really project the impact of diversion? …but we have made a lot of progress in our system by starting with what we have, learning along the way, and continuously improving.

  8. Comments, feedback, questions, etc. Beau Anderson // beau.Anderson@ct.gov

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