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San Donato Milanese June 28 th 2004

Economic evaluation of the information provided by PRIMEFLO about the localization of obstructions in pipelines. San Donato Milanese June 28 th 2004. Introduction.

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San Donato Milanese June 28 th 2004

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  1. Economic evaluation of the information provided by PRIMEFLO about the localization of obstructions in pipelines San Donato Milanese June 28th 2004

  2. Introduction PRIMEFLO is a new technology for the internal inspection of pipelines and tubings capable of localizing deposits and obstructions in a non-invasive, low cost and low risk way Eni E&P EniTecnologie Processing Unit Pressure sensors Flow rate Transient PRIMEFLO measurements are performed by generating fast flow-rate transients at one end of the pipe, recording the resulting pressure signals and applying mathematical processing

  3. Application considered in the analysis Build-up of a complete obstruction in a pipeline Some possible solutions Push by solvent injection (S) C = 0.2 M€ t = 20 gg Push or disperse the deposit Pipeline cut and substitution (T) C = 4.4 M€ t = 100 gg Eliminate the (section of) line containing the deposit

  4. Common economic evaluation: “a posteriori” Solvent Injection C = 0.2 M€ t = 20 d Effective S ? Movable Decision points supported by PRIMEFLO ? Complete obstruction Not effective Complete substitution C = 4.4 M€ t = 100 d X Non movable Obstruction not localizable or distributed Line cut ? Obstruction localized C = 3.9 M€ t = 90 d Selective substitution X Without PRIMEFLO With PRIMEFLO C = 4.4 M€ T = 100 d C = 0.2 M€ T = 20 d C = 4.2 M€ T = 80 d IS IT RIGHT ?

  5. Limits of the economic evaluation “a posteriori” The economic evaluation “a posteriori” (comparison between the repair costs with and without PRIMEFLO) is not meaningful or appealing when the information provided by PRIMEFLO: • simply confirm the planned intervention procedure • lead to the worst case, e.g. the pipeline abandonment owing to the repair costs • (for monitoring) indicate the absence of anomalies and, therefore, no need for intervention Need to develop a quantitative methodology for the evaluation of the information provided by PRIMEFLO independently from the outcome of any particular case

  6. Logic of the economic evaluation New methods to perform ACTIVITIES New methods to obtain INFORMATION Impact on ACTION Impact on DECISION PRIMEFLO Economic evaluation A POSTERIORI Economic evaluation A PRIORI Evaluate AFTER performing actions Evaluate BEFORE making decisions

  7. “Practical” Decision maker w/o PRIMEFLO time 50% C = 0.2 M€ t = 20 d Solvent injection S Effective 100% Movable 50% C = 4.4 M€ t = 100 d Non effective Complete substitution X Complete obstruction Non localized obstruction Non movable 100% Line cut Localized obstruction C = 3.9 M€ t = 90 d C: Repair costs t: Time to repair Selective substitution X

  8. “A priori” economic evaluation Value of INFO = (Costs w/o INFO - Costs w INFO) when who decides makes MISTAKES PINTRINSIC(S)PW/O PRIMEFLO(T | best=S)Cost (T, W/O PRIMEFLO) – PINTRINSIC(S)PW PRIMEFLO (T | best=S)Cost (T, W PRIMEFLO) PW PRIMEFLO (T | best=S) = (1-) PW/O PRIMEFLO (T | best=S)   PRIMEFLO information completeness:  = 1  impossible mistaking ! Value = PINTRINSIC(S)PW/O PRIMEFLO(T | best=S) (Cost (T, W PRIMEFLO) + COSTS) = 50%50% [90%  3.9 M€ + 50%(0.5 M€)] = 0.94 M€ • Value of the information estimated “a priori” = 0.9 M€. • Considering the investment for developing PRIMEFLO (0.7 M€),the analysis indicates a positive R&D return even for the application to this single “average” case.

  9. Conclusions • An economic evaluation of the PRIMEFLO information has been applied, based on the residual probability to make mistakes, without reference to the outcome of any particular case • This also allows to estimate the economic value of the level of completeness/accuracy of the provided information • To be quantitative, the method requires statistical data about possible system states in order to define their intrinsic probabilities • We still have to ascertain the possibility of extending this methodology to other cases related to information-providing technologies

  10. Corso Magenta, 63 20123 Milano - Italy phone +39-2-52036934 fax +39-2-52036946 web http://www.feem.it

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