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Quantifying Carbon Cycle-Climate Feedbacks

Quantifying Carbon Cycle-Climate Feedbacks. Jonathan Moch Mentors: Thomas Froelicher and Keith Rodgers. Feedbacks Overview. Feeback = amplification or suppression of an initial input into a complex system Positive or negative E.g.: Permafrost melt, CO 2 fertilization

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Quantifying Carbon Cycle-Climate Feedbacks

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  1. Quantifying Carbon Cycle-Climate Feedbacks Jonathan Moch Mentors: Thomas Froelicher and Keith Rodgers

  2. Feedbacks Overview • Feeback = amplification or suppression of an initial input into a complex system • Positive or negative • E.g.: Permafrost melt, CO2 fertilization • Objective: Deconstruct Carbon Cycle –climate feedbacks • Useful for comparing models and getting at mechanisms

  3. Terminology • α = K / ppm CO2 • Linear transient climate sensitivity • β = GtC/ ppm CO2 • Sensitivity of carbon uptake to atmospheric CO2 • γ = GtC / K • Sensitivity of carbon uptake to temperature change Friedlingstein et al, 2006; Gregory et al, 2009; Roy et al, 2010

  4. Conclusions • ESM2M relatively unresponsive • Feedback factors are not actually linear • Regressions yield different results from instantaneous slope when started from different points • Regional differences appear to converge after spin-up • Less clear on a global scale • Larger magnitude β and γ if ignore spin-up, smaller α • Intra-model uncertainty much smaller than inter-model uncertainty • Might make a difference on the margins

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