Multiple Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis. Chapter 14. GOALS. Describe the relationship between several independent variables and a dependent variable using multiple regression analysis .
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The general multiple regression with k independent variables is given by:
The least squares criterion is used to develop this equation. Because determining b1, b2, etc. is very tedious, a software package such as Excel or MINITAB is recommended.
For two independent variables, the general form of the multiple regression equation is:
Salsberry Realty sells homes along the east coast of the United States. One of the questions most frequently asked by prospective buyers is: If we purchase this home, how much can we expect to pay to heat it during the winter? The research department at Salsberry has been asked to develop some guidelines regarding heating costs for single-family homes.
Three variables are thought to relate to the heating costs: (1) the mean daily outside temperature, (2) the number of inches of insulation in the attic, and (3) the age in years of the furnace.
To investigate, Salsberry’s research department selected a random sample of 20 recently sold homes. It determined the cost to heat each home last January, as well
(data in next slide)
The regression coefficient for mean outside temperature (X1) is 4.583. The coefficient is negative and shows an inverse relationship between heating cost and temperature.
As the outside temperature increases, the cost to heat the home decreases. The numeric value of the regression coefficient provides more information. If we increase temperature by 1 degree and hold the other two independent variables constant, we can estimate a decrease of $4.583 in monthly heating cost.
The attic insulation variable (X2) also shows an inverse relationship: the more insulation in the attic, the less the cost to heat the home. So the negative sign for this coefficient is logical. For each additional inch of insulation, we expect the cost to heat the home to decline $14.83 per month, regardless of the outside temperature or the age of the furnace.
The age of the furnace variable (X3) shows a direct relationship. With an older furnace, the cost to heat the home increases.
Specifically, for each additional year older the furnace is, we expect the cost to increase $6.10 per month.
What is the estimated heating cost for a home if the mean outside temperature is 30 degrees, there are 5 inches of insulation in the attic, and the furnace is 10 years old?
The multiple standard error of estimate is a measure of the effectiveness of the regression equation.
The ANOVA table reports the variation in the dependent variable. The variation is divided into two components.
Characteristics of the coefficient of multiple determination:
1. It is symbolized by a capital R squared. In other words, it is written as because it behaves like the square of a correlation coefficient.
2. It can range from 0 to 1. A value near 0 indicates little association between the set of independent variables and the dependent variable. A value near 1 means a strong association.
3. It cannot assume negative values. Any number that is squared or raised to the second power cannot be negative.
4. It is easy to interpret. Because R2 is a value between 0 and 1 it is easy to interpret, compare, and understand.
A correlation matrix is used to show all possible simple correlation coefficients among the variables.
The global test is used to investigate whether any of the independent variables have significant coefficients.
The hypotheses are:
Reject H0 if F > F,k,n-k-1
Or in SPSS when in ANOVA table;
H0: βi = 0
H1: βi ≠ 0
Reject H0 if p-value<.05 or T-value (approximately greater than 2.0)
1. There is a linear relationship. That is, there is a straight-line relationship between the dependent variable and the set of independent variables.
2. The variation in the residuals is the same for both large and small values of the estimated YTo put it another way, the residual is unrelated whether the estimated Y is large or small.
3. The residuals follow the normal probability distribution.
4. The independent variables should not be correlated. That is, we would like to select a set of independent variables that are not themselves correlated.
5. The residuals are independent. This means that successive observations of the dependent variable are not correlated. This assumption is often violated when time is involved with the sampled observations.
A residual is the difference between the actual value of Y and the predicted value of Y. Residuals should be approximately normally distributed. Histograms and stem-and-leaf charts are useful in checking this requirement.
Both MINITAB and Excel offer another graph that helps to evaluate the assumption of normally distributed residuals. It is a called a normal probability plot and is shown to the right of the histogram.
Refer to the data in the table, which relates the heating cost to the independent variables outside temperature, amount of insulation, and age of furnace.
Develop a correlation matrix for all the independent variables.
Does it appear there is a problem with multicollinearity?
Find and interpret the variance inflation factor for each of the independent variables.
Suppose in the Salsberry Realty example that the independent variable “garage” is added. For those homes without an attached garage, 0 is used; for homes with an attached garage, a 1 is used. We will refer to the “garage” variable as X4.The data shown on the table are entered into the MINITAB system.
With garageUsing the Model for Estimation
What is the effect of the garage variable? Suppose we have two houses exactly alike next to each other in Buffalo, New York; one has an attached garage, and the other does not. Both homes have 3 inches of insulation, and the mean January temperature in Buffalo is 20 degrees.
For the house without an attached garage, a 0 is substituted for in the regression equation. The estimated heating cost is $280.90, found by:
For the house with an attached garage, a 1 is substituted for in the regression equation. The estimated heating cost is $358.30, found by:
H0: βi = 0
H1: βi ≠ 0
Reject H0 if p-value<.05
Conclusion: if the regression coefficient is not zero, the independent variable garage should be included in the analysis.