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Future of Severe and High Impact Weather Warnings (A) behavioral and social research perspective. Kim Klockow Doctoral candidate in Geography University of Oklahoma. WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012. Introduction: Defining my perspective.
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Future of Severe and High Impact Weather Warnings(A) behavioral and social research perspective Kim Klockow Doctoral candidate in Geography University of Oklahoma WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012
Introduction: Defining my perspective • Behind the “social scientist” title • Behavioral & hazards geography • Meteorologist • Research areas • Risk perception research • Political scientists, risk communication scholars, economists • Dissertation: Mix ethnographic (anthropological) and cognitive (psychological) frameworks • In-depth interviews following April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak • Cognitive decision experiments using probabilistic information of different forms • Geographers are awesome integrators WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012
Environmental perception and behavioral geography WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012
We were given prompts, none of which apply to me exactly. I’ll apply them to the lay public(s) to the extent I am able. A lot of this will be brainstorming! WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012
What are (their) roles/responsibilities (capabilities) in the current warning system? Important to keep in mind that people “responding” to warnings are: • Employees • Friends • Wives, sisters, sons, grandfathers • Busy • Distracted • Bound to culture(s), ideologies, and other ways of learning about the world than formal educational systems/programs WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012
What are their roles/responsibilities (capabilities) in the current warning system? Also note: Warning systems delivering these messages to people are shaped by an interaction of: • Local politics, preferences & infrastructure (think: sirens) • Top-down forces pushing information (NWS) * • Broadcast technologies available to pushers of weather information (to NWS, TV mets, etc.) • Resources/technologies/social support systems available to people to pull information WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012
How would nearly continuous warning updates change how they prepare? • How would information concerning forecaster confidence change how they prepare? A similar set of questions apply! A few questions: • How do people prepare now in a deterministic system? • Would people receive these continual updates, and if so, through what media? • “The medium is the message” WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012
What work must be completed to accommodate longer lead times? Not intended to be an exhaustive list, but a few ideas: • Take focus off “response” and place more on “situation awareness and understanding” • Step back from militaristic command-and-control mentality, reap great benefits from a more holistic perspective • Identify the underlying mechanisms for situation awareness and understanding in present system • Utilize social and behavioral frameworks of risk perception, information processing, fast decision-making under pressure, etc. • Market research-esque: Conduct experiments, focus groups, trial runs, etc. for new system using the original system as a control WARN-ON-FORECAST AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WORKSHOP 2012