1 / 10

Pathways to Permanent Residence: Thoughts on Transition Matters

Pathways to Permanent Residence: Thoughts on Transition Matters. Arthur Sweetman (arthur.sweetman@mcmaster.ca). Remarkable research. This is a great approach Very nice use of data. On substance. Employment Next slide maybe shows Good initial condition by TR  PR (WP) group endures

lionel
Download Presentation

Pathways to Permanent Residence: Thoughts on Transition Matters

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Pathways to Permanent Residence: Thoughts on Transition Matters Arthur Sweetman (arthur.sweetman@mcmaster.ca)

  2. Remarkable research • This is a great approach • Very nice use of data

  3. On substance • Employment • Next slide maybe shows • Good initial condition by TR  PR (WP) group endures • Convergence (BUT, slow!!) • Good to help us think about how to interpret earnings trends in light of employment trends • Sample selection • Individual & aggregate trends (composition effect)

  4. Incidence of Employment earnings of Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR – with and without a Work Permit (WP) Incidence of Employment Earnings by Transition Type and Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 All Immigrants Economic PAs Source: Slides 7 to 11 IMDB, 2011 • Incidence of employment earnings is highest for those who previously worked in • Canada as a TR, this is especially true for those who transitioned to Economic PAs • In the first year post-transition (YSL=1), PRs with previous work experience in Canada had an incidence of • employment earnings equal to 81%. The comparable incidence was 51% for those who transitioned without • Canadian work experience and 62% for PRs without a previous TR status. • For Economic PAs, in the first year post-transition (YSL=1), those with previous work experience in Canada had an • incidence of employment earnings equal to 92%. The comparable incidence was 79% for those who transitioned • without Canadian work experience and 70% for PRs without a previous TR status.

  5. Earnings • Among PAs, a work permit is akin to a 3 to 5 year lead in terms of earnings • Longer for all immigrants • Although unclear how this interacts with changing composition of who is employed • Question: How much of a “head start” does the WP afford?

  6. Employment Earnings of Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR – with and without a Work Permit (WP) Average Employment Earnings by Transition Type and Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 All Immigrants Economic PA • Average employment earnings are also highest for those who previously worked in Canada • as TR and, again, higher for those who transitioned to Economic PAs • In the first year post-transition (YSL=1), PRs with previous work experience in Canada had average employment • earnings equal to $38,000. The comparable average was $18,100 for those who transitioned without Canadian • work experience and $20,000 for PRs without a previous TR status. • For Economic PAs, in the first year post-transition (YSL=1), those with previous work experience in Canada had • average employment earnings equal to $44,000. The comparable average was $24,000 for those who transitioned • without Canadian work experience and $26,000 for PRs without a previous TR status.

  7. Extensions • Interesting to look back and see how many years of Canadian work experience those with a work permit who transition to permanent residency had “before zero” • How much of a head start did they actually have? • Larger question: • Does it matter when “zero” is? • When start paying taxes? When permanent? • Suspect it does, but ….

  8. Interesting to look at “durability” of beneficial work permit effect across time and (potentially) multiple jobs • More broadly, useful to do a life-cycle cost-benefit comparing the impact on the public purse of the various categories addressed • Timing matters: e.g., CPP etc. starts when working under work permit, not when permanent residency granted (also consider OAS/GIS, etc.) • Might be some unexpected but important issues such as age-at-immigration

  9. “Types” of Immigration Economics Research • In Canada almost all research about the economic integration of immigrants • In US, majority of research concerns the economic impact of immigration on the existing immigrant and US born populations • Other countries too • Controversial: UK House of Lords report and New Zealand Dept. of Labour report come to opposite conclusions

  10. Concern of “impact” literature for recent Canadian policy changes, and especially TFW program • Canada’s traditional economic immigration program sought complements to the domestic workforce • As employers have more influence in immigrant selection, concern is that new immigrants may increasingly become substitutes in the labour market • Good to think about as we modify programs

More Related