Neil Harrison, David James and Kathryn Last

1. The impact of a skills-led qualification on GCSE attainment: the case of ASDAN's Certificate of Personal Effectiveness Education and Employers Taskforce 16th October 2012 Neil Harrison, David James and Kathryn Last

2. Background to CoPE (1) • Skills-led qualification offered by ASDAN • Based around modules that promote learning through undertaking ‘challenges’, Plan-Do-Review process and portfolio-building (c.f. Watkins 2010) • Modules include Work-Based Learning and Enterpriseand Vocational Preparation- wider key skills run through all modules • Learner-centred, drawing on personal interests, innovative curriculum and mainstream school work

3. Background to CoPE (2) • Available at Levels 1, 2 and 3 • This study focused on Level 2 – usually taken at KS4 and currently equivalent to B at GCSE • Offered across around 1,000 schools, with around 10,000 young people completing each year • A wide range of young people take CoPE, though pupils with lower measured ability, FSM and special educational needs are over-represented

4. Use of CoPE in schools • We identified two main uses of CoPE: • ‘Thin’ – where used mainly as supplement for small minority of young people with disrupted education between KS3 and KS4 (e.g. illness, absenteeism, disengagement, behavioural issues) • ‘Wide’ – where used as a more mainstream tool either to enhance the curriculum, increase motivation or broaden opportunities for achievement • This distinction is based on data, with the ‘boundary’ set at 25% of cohort

5. Research method • Three strand approach: • Analysis of National Pupil Database (NPD) – statistical analysis of around 500,000 entries for cohort completing KS4 in 2010 • Matched pairs – quasi-experimental study using pairs of learners either taking or not taking CoPE, but otherwise similar across eight variables • Case studies – research visits to four schools (three ‘thin’ and one ‘wide’), with interviews with learners, teachers and school managers

6. National Pupil Database analysis • Multilevel binary logistic regression • Dependent variable is outcome in four variations: • GCSE English pass at grades A* to G • GCSE English pass at grades A* to C • GCSE English pass at grades A* or A • Achieving five GCSEs passes at A* to C (inc. Eng/Maths) • Identifies the unique impact of each variable while holding others constant • Accounts for clustering of learners within schools and both individual and school level variables

7. Variables investigated

8. NPD findings (1) • GCSE English pass at A* to G: • In both ‘thin’ and ‘wide’ schools, taking CoPE is associated with a significantly higher likelihood • Other significant predictors: • Positive: KS3 English outcome (L6/7), gender (=female), ethnicity (=BME), ESL (=yes), high school English and Maths pass rate • Negative: KS3 English outcome (L2/3/4), FSM (=yes), SEN (=yes), KS3 absentee (=yes), high school deprivation

9. NPD findings (2) • GCSE English pass at A* to C: • In ‘wide’ schools, taking CoPE is associated with a significantly higher likelihood • In ‘thin’ schools, taking CoPE is associated with a significantly lower likelihood • Other significant predictors: • Positive: KS3 English outcome (L6/7), gender (=female), ethnicity (=BME), ESL (=yes), high school English and Maths pass rate, high school deprivation • Negative: KS3 English outcome (L2/3/4), FSM (=yes), SEN (=yes), KS3 absentee (=yes)

10. GCSE English A* to C

11. NPD findings (3) • GCSE English pass at A* or A: • In ‘wide’ schools, taking CoPE has a non-significant relationship with the likelihood of achieving pass • In ‘thin’ schools, taking CoPE is associated with a significantly lower likelihood of achieving pass • Other significant predictors: • Positive: KS3 English outcome (L6/7), gender (=female), ethnicity (=BME), ESL (=yes), high school English and Maths pass rate • Negative: KS3 English outcome (L2/3/4), FSM (=yes), SEN (=yes), KS3 absentee (=yes)

12. NPD findings (4) • Five GCSE passes at A* to C inc Eng/Maths: • In ‘wide’ schools, taking CoPE is associated with a significantly higher likelihood • In ‘thin’ schools, taking CoPE is associated with a significantly lower likelihood • Other significant predictors: • Positive: KS3 English outcome (L6/7), ethnicity (=BME), ESL (=yes), high school English and Maths pass rate, high school deprivation • Negative: KS3 English outcome (L2/3/4), gender (=female), FSM (=yes), SEN (=yes), KS3 absentee (=yes)

13. Five GCSEs at A* to C (inc. E&M)

14. Paired sample analysis (1) • 200 young people completing CoPE in a ‘wide’ school chosen at random from NPD data • Matched with 200 young people in schools not offering CoPE across eight variables: • KS3 outcomes and regular absenteeism during KS3 • Gender, ethnicity, special educational needs and English as additional language • Free school meals and neighbourhood deprivation • Creates two ‘identical’ schools for comparison

15. Paired sample analysis (2) GCSE English pass at A* to C 132 150 No CoPE CoPE in ‘wide’ school

16. Paired sample analysis (3) • Robust quasi-experimental study • The ‘CoPE school’ outperformed the ‘non CoPE school’ across all measures • Mix of significant and non-significant effects • Average uplift of one-fifth of a grade, but much higher for some

17. Interpretation of findings • In ‘thin’ schools: • CoPE is directed towards learners expected to severely underperform relative to KS3 outcomes • Learners do still underperform in relation to achieving A* to C grades, but more likely to take exams and achieve D or E grades (not F, G or U) • CoPE perceived to mitigate underperformance • In ‘wide’ schools: • CoPE is associated with better A* to C pass rates, but not achievement of top grades (A* to A) where subject knowledge vital alongside skills

18. Does CoPE work better for some? • Positive relationship of CoPE stronger for: • Those with special educational needs • Those receiving free school meals • Those from minority ethnic communities, including those with English as a second/subsidiary language • Suggests specific role for challenging educational disadvantage • No coherent relationship between CoPE and gender

19. Why does CoPE work? • Not possible to examine statistically • Rich qualitative data from case study schools • Three possible mechanisms identified: • Transferability of skills from CoPE to GCSEs – especially written communication • Increased motivation – learners actively enjoy CoPE and this engages them with other learning • Use of wider knowledge and activity base increases confidence and self-esteem – connects school to ‘lived lives’

20. Why does it matter? • CoPE is caught up in the current ‘bonfire of the vocationals’. The loss of official equivalence with GCSE will mean schools are much less likely to offer CoPE. Thus: • Loss of a learning process that appears to help a large number of pupils to gain better GCSEs (regarded by some as a prime indicator of labour supply skills) • Loss of explicit work-related opportunities for many pupils at the same time as the removal of the statutory requirement for WRL