CLIMATE CHANGE, POLLUTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: ANALYSIS FROM NIGERIA

1. CLIMATE CHANGE, POLLUTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: ANALYSIS FROM NIGERIA John Sylvester AFAHA1 and Joseph Ayoola OMOJOLAIBI2 1,2Department of Economics, College of Social and Management Sciences, Caleb University, Imota, Lagos, Nigeria johnafaha@yahoo.com, omojo_laibi@yahoo.com A Paper Presented at the 6th NAEE/IAEE Conference held at Sheraton Hotel, Ikeja, Lagos, Nigeria. Date: 22-23 April, 2013

2. ROAD MAP • The Problem • Research objectives • The Review of Relevant Literature • Effects of the Recent Climate Change Trend on Economic Growth in Nigeria • Global Climate Change: Recent Impacts on Nigeria • Global Climate Change: Future Trends in Nigeria • Pollution Policies in Nigeria and its Impacts on Adaptation and Mitigation • Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

3. THE PROBLEM • The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2012) cites overwhelming evidence that human actions are contributing to climate change, with a wide range of implications for human health. • Some of the impacts are direct, including mortality and morbidity resulting from more intense weather events, heat waves, and floods. • Other impacts arise indirectly from mechanisms such as climate's effects on agricultural production and water resources-linked to major killers such as malnutrition and diarrhoea • Although IPCC considered population, along with economic growth and technological change, as one of the root causes of greenhouse gas emissions, the effect of pollution on climate change is still under debate.

4. THE PROBLEM (cont’d) • While policy debates around climate change engender scholarly discussions on a number of factors, pollution is rarely mentioned. • Studies in the past decade have added significantly to understanding the mechanisms and complexity of pollution and climate interactions. • In addition to the growth or increase in the amount of pollution emission, research (Samuel and Richard, 2005, Omojolaibi, 2010) show that rapid increase in pollution (i.e. through rapid industrialization) generate substantial effects on the climate system. • Pollution on the one hand is mostly attributed to dangerous fumes emitted from industries, electricity generating sets and in automobiles. • This has an important role to play in the effort to avert the dangerous effects of climate change because it heavily depends on fossil fuels.

5. THE PROBLEM (cont’d) • No proper assessment has been carried out to establish the level and impact of air pollution from the automobiles. • Nigeria does not have an air quality management system and the few existing data on air/land pollution has been obtained through measurements done on an ad hoc basis. • Nigeria, being a developing country is very prone to the adverse effects of climate change because of its low capacity to adopt, lack of technology and institutional and financial capacities. • Controlling pollution from the transport sector is vital to improving the quality of the air and protecting public health. • Hence, this paper attempts to answer the following questions: how does the recent climate change trend affect economic growth in Nigeria? and how pollution policies could make differences for climate change mitigation and adaptation?

6. Research objectives • The overall objective of this paper is to examine the impact of climate change and pollution on economic growth in Nigeria. • Specifically, the study seeks to: • (i) Assess the impact of the recent climate change trends on economic growth in Nigeria. • (ii) Find out how pollution policies could contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation in Nigeria

7. REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE • The literature is reviewed according to issues: • Pollution and Climate change (some studies focus on Niger delta region Uyigue and Agho 2007, Etuonovbe 2008 etc) • Climate change and Economic growth (some studies focus on agric, Adams et al 1990, Guiteras 2007 , others on Ocean, IPCC 2007 etc) • Facts: temp on mortality Currerio et al 2002, temp on crime, Field 1992, Jacob et al 2007, drough on conflict, Miguel et al 2004) all of which have direct and indirect effects) Integrated Assessment Models (IAM)

8. Effects of the Recent Climate Change Trend on Economic Growth in Nigeria. • Nigeria is experiencing adverse climate conditions with adverse impacts on the welfare of millions of its population. • Persistent droughts and flooding, off season rains and dry spells have sent growing seasons out of orbit, in a country dependent on a rain fed agriculture. • Alarm bells are ringing with lakes drying up and a reduction in river flow in the arid and semi-arid region of the country. • The result is fewer water supplies for use in agriculture, hydro power generation and other uses.

9. Effects (cont’d) • The social implications of climate change for Nigeria are multidimensional. • A projection by Awosika et al in Medugu (2009) suggests that Nigeria will experience massive “environmental refugee” migration. • For a 1million rise, more than 3 million people are at risk, based on the present population. • The estimated number of people that would be displaced ranges from 740,000 for a 0.2 million rise to 3.7 million for a 1million rise and 10 million for a 2million rise. • The most vulnerable is the coastal region of the country where about 20 million people inhabit. • Similarly, most of the economic activities that form the backbone of the nation’s economy are located within the coastal zone. • In Africa and Nigeria in particular, climate change impact poses great danger of desertification, damage to infrastructure, sea level rise, flooding and water salinity with serious implications to the well-being of the people.

10. Figure 1: Flooding of a city after a heavy rain

11. Table 1: Global Climate Change: Recent Impacts on Nigeria

12. Table 2: Global Climate Change: Future Trends in Nigeria

13. Pollution/Climate Change Policies in Nigeria and its Impacts on Adaptation and Mitigation • National Environmental Standards and Regulations Enforcement Agency (NESREA) Act 57, 2007/FEPA. • Climate Change Bill in tune will the issues of the Kyoto Protocol • Policies: • Water:- National water policies and integrated water resources management and water related hazards management. • Agriculture:- R&D policies; institutional reform; land tenure and land reform; training

14. Energy:- National energy policies, regulations, and fiscal and financial incentives to encourage use of alternative sources; incorporating climate change in design standards • Human Health:- Public health policies that recognise climate risk; strengthened health services; regional and international cooperation

15. Policies Cont’d • taxes or carbon charges on fossil fuels • Financial incentives and regulations for improved land management; maintaining soil carbon content; efficient use of fertilisers and irrigation • Mandatory fuel economy; biofuel blending and CO2 standards for road transport

16. Adaptation and Mitigation Options/strategy i.e Policies required to reduce vulnerability to climate change • Sector – Water: Expanded rainwater harvesting; water storage and conservation techniques; water re-use; desalination; water-useand irrigation efficiency. • Agriculture: Adjustment of planting dates and crop variety; crop relocation; improved land management, e.g. erosion control and soil protection through tree planting

17. Energy: Strengthening of overhead transmission and distribution infrastructure; underground cabling for utilities; energy efficiency; use of renewable sources; reduced dependence on single sources of energy • Human Health: Heat-health action plans; emergency medical services; improved climate-sensitive disease surveillance and control; safe water and improved sanitation (Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007)

18. Mitigation Technologies and Practices. • Agriculture: Improved crop and grazing land management to increase soil carbon storage; • Energy: Improved supply and distribution efficiency; fuel switching from coal to gas; nuclear power; renewable heat and power (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy);

19. Transport: More fuel-efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; cleaner diesel vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; non-motorised transport (cycling, walking); land-use and transport planning; second generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries

20. Conclusion • The effects of climate change and pollution on economic growth in Nigeria is examined in this study. • The influence of recent climate change trends on Nigeria economy is also x-rayed. • Two major pollution/climate change policies in Nigeria and how they contributed to mitigation and adaptation policies were also articulated. • It was established in the study that climate change is an unprecedented threat to major activities in Nigeria, for instance, agricultural practices in Nigeria.

21. Conclusion(cont’d) • Agricultural practices in the country is predominantly rain-fed and therefore particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. • It was also observed that climate change potentially contribute to increased incidence of flooding in Nigeria.

22. Conclusion(cont’d) • Overall, climate change could make it more difficult to grow crops, raise animals, and catch fish in the same ways and same places as we have done in the past. The effects of climate change also need to be considered along with other evolving factors that affect agricultural production, such as changes in farming practices and technology.

23. Policy Recommendations • There should be regulation dealing specifically with the legal nature of carbon emission(pollution) to determine how the creation and transaction of carbon credits will be treated in a specific transaction and the full impact of climate change on the lives of Nigerians. • it is also of great importance and urgency that Government should undertake an active role in tackling climate change issues considering the hazards it poses on our social and economic well-being.

24. THE END • THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION