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Going Beyond Global Averages

Going Beyond Global Averages. What’s to come for the climate – and us – in the Northern Appalachian/Acadian Ecoregion?. Steve Trombulak Middlebury College. D. CSIRO. Hadcm3. Miroc. CGCM3.1. J. F. Precip. M. A. Tmax. M. J. Tmin. J. A. Tmean. S. O. N. a1t. a1c. a1g. a1b.

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Going Beyond Global Averages

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  1. Going Beyond Global Averages What’s to come for the climate – and us – in the Northern Appalachian/Acadian Ecoregion? Steve Trombulak Middlebury College

  2. D CSIRO Hadcm3 Miroc CGCM3.1 J F Precip M A Tmax M J Tmin J A Tmean S O N a1t a1c a1g a1b a2 b1 b2 Climate models Time periods Climate variables Emissions scenarios

  3. CSIRO a1b a2 b1

  4. CSIRO Miroc Hadcm3 a1b a2 b1

  5. Ensemble (median) Median value across all three models and all three scenarios

  6. Ensemble (median) Summer (JJA) Winter (DJF) Spring (MAM) Fall (SON)

  7. Historical (1951-2000) Summer (JJA) Winter (DJF) Spring (MAM) Fall (SON)

  8. CSIRO Miroc Hadcm3 a1b a2 b1

  9. Ensemble (median) Median value across all three models and all three scenarios

  10. Ensemble (median) Summer (JJA) Winter (DJF) Spring (MAM) Fall (SON)

  11. Historical (1951-2000) Summer (JJA) Winter (DJF) Spring (MAM) Fall (SON)

  12. Ensemble (median) Summer (JJA) Winter (DJF) Spring (MAM) Fall (SON)

  13. Historical (1951-2000) Summer (JJA) Winter (DJF) Spring (MAM) Fall (SON)

  14. What’s to come? • In general, winters will be warmer and wetter, with max increases in Tmin, Tmax, and precipitation of ~ 6oC, ~ 3oC, and 20 mm • Winter changes will show pronounced South  North and East  West gradients, with northern and western locations (e.g., Québec and New York) showing greater increases in both Tmin and Tmax than southern and eastern locations (e.g., Nova Scotia and PEI) • Summers will also be warmer and wetter, although the change will be less than that during the winter (~ 3oC, ~3oC, and 10 mm), with E  W gradients for larger increases in Tmax and smaller increases in precipitation • Coastal areas may experience a decrease in precipitation (~50%)

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