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Algeria Stability Study

Algeria Stability Study. - The Final Estimate. Will Algeria be stable during the next 48 months ?. Requirement :. With moderate confidence it is likely that Algeria will be stable during the next 48 months due to :.

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Algeria Stability Study

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  1. AlgeriaStabilityStudy - TheFinalEstimate

  2. Will Algeria be stableduringthenext48 months? Requirement:

  3. With moderate confidence it is likely that Algeria will be stable during the next 48 months due to: • The Algerian regime’s consolidated control over internal affairs • Unabatedforeign support of the current status quo • Despitepotentially disruptive social problems and terrorist activity of the Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)

  4. The status quo enjoys unabated international support encouraged by economic cooperation and the need to counter transnational threats. FINAL ESTIMATE High concentration of power allows President AbdelazizBouteflika and his loyalists to effectively target potentially disruptive social problems. The regime firmly controls experienced and well-prepared military and civil security forceswhichareable to successfullydealwithpotentialthreatsposed by terrorism and socialunrest.

  5. High concentration of power allows President AbdelazizBouteflika and his loyalists to effectively target potentially disruptive social problems. Careful and Effective Selection of Loyalists + Effective Technocratic Policies

  6. professional political generalists AbdelaazizBelkhadem • appealing activists supported by minority groups KhalidaToumi • technocratic experts with solid academic credentials ChekibKhalil

  7. EffectiveTechnocraticPolicies

  8. The regime firmly controls experienced and well-prepared military and civil security forceswhichareable to successfullydealwithpotentialthreatsposed by terrorism and socialunrest. CONTROL EXPERIENCE PREPARATION

  9. CONTROL

  10. PREPARATION The Region of Kabylie Mountains MainCity Military Base Air Defense Military Transportation Unit Military Training Center Helicopter Regiment Alleged Terrorist Camp

  11. EXPERIENCE 17 years of Counter -Insurgency: • Terrorism • SocialUnrest

  12. The status quo enjoys unabated international support encouraged by economic cooperation and the need to counter transnational threats. Attractive Economy: Transnational Threats: • World’s 5th largest gas reserves • DrugsTrafficking • World’s 18 thlargest oil • reserves • HumanTrafficking • Intensiveinfrastructure • development • ArmsTrafficking • Thepopulation of 33 million • people • TERRORISM DEPENDECY

  13. AlgerianStability Framework The status quo enjoys unabated international support encouraged by economic cooperation and the need to counter transnational threats. TransnationalThreats Attractive Economy With moderate confidence it is likely that Algeria will be stable during the next 48 months Effective Technocratic Policies Experience Political Loyalists Preparation Control High concentration of power allows President AbdelazizBouteflika and his loyalists to effectively target potentially disruptive social problems. The regime firmly controls experienced and well-prepared military and civil security forces.

  14. Despite … AQIM remains operationally active and, with low confidence, it is likely to organize precisely-planned terrorist attacks on foreign and domestic, military and state officials.

  15. AnalyticConfidence: • Use of Structured Method(s) In Analysis: 8 • Overall Source Reliability: 7 • Source Corroboration/Agreement: 4 • Level Of Expertise On Subject/Topic & Experience: 2 • Amount of Collaboration: 2 • Task Complexity: 1 • Time Pressure: 2 • OverallAnalyticConfidence: 5,778

  16. Thank You

  17. ContactInformation: Aleksandra Maria Bielska Ul. Bazylianówka 25 20-144 Lublin POLAND (+4881) 747 90 56 abiels52@mercyhurst.edu

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