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Kingtse Mo, Eric Rogers, Wesley Ebisuzaki , R. Wayne Higgins, Jack Wollen and Marco Carrera Climate Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP. Impact of the NAME04 Soundings on the NCEP data assimilation systems. NAME04 Special Upper Air Soundings. During the EOP Altair, Yuma did not get onto the GTS;

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Presentation Transcript
slide2

NAME04 Special Upper Air Soundings

During the EOP

Altair, Yuma did not get onto the GTS;

25% Loreto data did not get in.

All other stations had less than 10 reports missing.

data impact experiments
Data Impact Experiments

NAME04 EOP (1 July – 15 August,2004)

Experiments accomplished:

  • CDASw, CDASwt, CDASwtmex
  • GDASw;
  • RCDASw, RCDASwt, RCDASwtmex
  • EDASw, EDASwt. EDASwtmex

DASw is the operational product

global and regional data assimilation systems
Global and regional data assimilation systems

GLOBAL:

CDAS2 (Climate Data Assimilation System): T62L28 TheCMAP precipitation is used to adjust soil moisture, but no direct assimilation of P

GDAS (Global Data Assimilation System) :T254T64 model. No P assimilation

Regional :

EDAS: ( Eta model 3D-Var Data Assimilation system) 12KM 60 layers. It assimilates radar precipitation data over the continental US.

RCDAS ( Regional Climate Data Assimilation System) 32Km, 45 layers, It assimilates P .

input data
INPUT data

Input dataIn all assimilation systems

  • All systems use rawinsondes, dropsondes, cloud drift winds from Geostationary satellite and aircraft data getting into the buffer.
  • They all use the TOVS-1B radiance data

Major differences

  • Both the GDAS and EDAS use more satellite observations than the CDAS2 and RCDAS: SSM/I wind speeds, TRMM TMI precipitation estimates, NOAA-15, NOAA-16 AMSU-A 1b radiances and NOAA-15 –16 and –17 AMSU-B 1b radiances
ratio s diff 2 var
Ratio= Sdiff**2/var

Z500

CDASw-CDASwt

V850

CDASw-CDASwtmex

p over the eop
P over the EOP

obs

CDAS wt

Improvement over the SMO, but not over the AZNM area

CDAS wtmex

CDASw

slide9

Puerto Penasco

31.18N, 113-33W

The CDASw really tries,

But the coarse resolution

Model is not able to take advantage of the soundings

conclusions
Conclusions

1.The impact of the NAME 04 soundings is largely local and is concentrated over the NAME core region;

2. Over the monsoon region, rainfall improves with soundings, but the coarse resolution model Is not able to take advantage of the soundings to improve the moisture fluxes

slide11

RCDAS

EDAS

1. Differences of the NAME Soundings are local and concentrated over the Tier I area for both RCDAS and EDAS.

2. At upper level, the impact on winds and

Circulationsare similar for the RCDAS and the EDAS

  • 2.
slide12

[qv] (contoured) and [qu,qv] flux(vector) with soundings

Units:kg m-1s-1

RCDASw

EDASw

GPLLJ:

The GPLLJ from RCDASw

and RCDASwt, GDAS are

similar,while the EDASDwt

shows a stronger jet.

2. The GCLLJ from the GDAS,

and EDASw and EDASwt

are similar, while the RCDAS

depicts a very strong jet with

a center over the Gulf

of California

EDASwt

RCDASwt

slide13

[qv] at Puerto Penasco

(31.3N, 113.5W) at northern Gulf of California.

unit is (g/kg)(m/s)

When the soundings are assimilated, the differences between the observations , EDAS and RCDAS are close. When the soundings are taken out, the differences are greater than 60 (k/kg)(m/s)

  • Obs soundings
impact of soundings on the edas fcsts
Impact of soundings on the EDAS fcsts

CMORPH

EDASw-EDASwt day 2-3 fcsts

EDAS day 2-3

EDASw-EDASwt 3hr fcsts

conclusions1
Conclusions
  • The impact of the NAME04 special soundings on global and regional analyses and short range forecasts is largely local and is concentrated over the Tier 1 area.
  • The impact on analyses differs from system to system. Overall, the soundings will correct some uncertainties in the assimilation system and improve the analyses
conclusions2
Conclusions
  • EDAS:The NAME soundings improve the magnitude and location of the GPLLJ and improve rainfall over northeastern Mexico.
  • RCDAS: Soundings improve the GCLLJ
  • Soundings will improve analyses somewhat, but they will not correct all errors in the system.
qfluxes
Qfluxes

qv

qu

IMPACT on qfluxes for EDAS

IMPACT for RCDAS

Differences between

EDASw and RCDAS w

experiments w wt p assimilation
Experiments w/wt P assimilation
  • Four experiments:
  • RCDASw(P): with P assimilation, with soundings;
  • RCDASwt(P): with P assimilation, without soundings;
  • RCDASw(no P): without P assimilation, with soundings;
  • RCDASwt(no P): without P assimilation and without soundings
precip from rcdas eop mean
Precip from RCDAS EOP mean

RCDASw(no P)

obs

RCDASwt(no P)

RCDASw(P)

vertical cross section of qv at 30n
Vertical cross section of qv at 30N

Impact of sndings w P

Impact of sndings wt P

Impact of P wt sndings

Impact of P w sndings

slide22

T2m diff

RCDASw(P)-RCDASw (no P)

Impact due to P assimilation with soundings

RCDASwt(P)- RCDASwt(no P)

Impact due to P assimilation

Without soundings

RCDASw(P)-RCDASwt(P);

Impact due to soundings

temperature profile between soundings and molts
Temperature profile between soundings and molts

Torreon

Black (with P with sndings);

Green (with P wt sndings)

blue (no P w sndings)

Red (no P wt sndings)

No P

With P

Chihuahua

Over N Mexico,

The impact of P assimilation

Is larger than the NAME04 soundings

conclusions3
Conclusions
  • The differences between analyses with and without soundings are smaller than the differences between two regional systems.
  • The P assimilation has large impact on analyses, but the impact differs from the soundings
goal prediction of summer precipitation over the united states and mexico

Goal:Prediction of summer precipitation over the United States and Mexico

Challenges:

Truth: Analyses depend on the model, assimilation system and data inputs. The differences can be very large.

We have more than one version of the “Truth”, what are we going to do about?

analyses
Analyses
  • Analyses can only be as good as the model, assimilation system and the input data including precipitation;
  • Impact of soundings on short range forecasts is small. Why?
  • 1. No changes on long waves;
  • 2. Model’s convection has problems;
  • 3. Targeting?
p assimilation lin et al 2004
P assimilation (Lin et al. 2004)
  • Compare the model P and observed P;
  • Change the latent heating profile , water vapor mixing ratio and cloud water fields
  • P (assimilation) is close to P obs;
  • Changes in E and soil moisture

and changes in temperature profile.

difference in moisture transport
Difference in moisture transport

Impact of Soundings w P

Impact of Sndings no P

P impact w sndings

P impact wt sndings

slide29

Input data differences among the NCEP data assimilation systems

Input Data

GFS

Eta operational

Regional CDAS

Comments

GMS, METEOSAT,GOES cloud drift IR and visible winds

u, v

u, v, T

u, v

GOES water vapor cloud top winds

u, v

u, v

not used

Surface land observations

u, v, T, Ps, q

Ps

Ps 10m winds,2m q

Surface ship and buoy observations

u, v, T, Ps, q

u, v, T, Ps, q

u,v T, s and q

From the COADS

SSM/I wind speeds

Used directly

Assigns direction from guess

Not used

Quickscat wind speed and direction

Not used

Used

Not used

SSM/I precipitable water

Used

Not used

Not used

SSM/I precipitation estimates

Not used

Used

Not used

Precipitation included through variational scheme and model physics

TRMM TMI precipitation estimates

Not used

Used

Not used

Precipitation included through variational scheme and model physics

GOES precipitable water

Used over land

Not used

Not used

NOAA-15, NOAA-16 AMSU-A 1b radiances

Used

Used

Not used

NOAA-15 –16 and –17 AMSU-B 1b radiance s

Used

Used

Not used

slide30

Vertically Integrated Meridional Moisture Flux (kg/ms) (1995-2000)

RR

Operational EDAS

GCLLJ

slide31

Vertical cross section of qv at 30N

1998-2000

RR

Operational EDAS

slide32

RMS errors

ICs CDASw

ICs CDAS wt

For the EOP period, 96-hr fcst was performed each day at 0Z,

The RSM errors for Z500 AND v850 over the PNA region (150W-60W,20-50N) is very small, but at 96 hr, the regional differences over the Gulf and the SMO regions are visible

12h

24h

96 h