Millennium Project Annual Planning Committee Meeting July 7-8, 2011 World Future Society Conference, July 8-10, 2011 Sheraton Wall Centre Hotel, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada • National SOFI and Long-term Strategic Management System • Beyond GDP, Establishing China Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) system • C. Ecological rebuild and development for 60,000hektares wasteland in “Lu Liang Mountainous Area” • D. Good news from China: Tech-BIA, one of the Life soft-tech bringing agricultural revolution China Node Zhouying JIN Center for Technology Innovation & Strategy Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences July 7-8, 2011
A. China SOFI and Long-term Strategic Management System • Nation level’s SOFI is A tool for evaluating Social, Economic and Environmental Sustainability. • Therefore, SOFI should be embodied in Long-term Strategic Management System
Four quadrants design China SOFI (started from 2001)divided fore parts in order to build a quadruple bottom line strategy sistem
The integration of a quadruple bottom line strategy and an early warning systems • Development postures and • the structure of radar charts • The first quadrant representing natural resources ; The second quadrant is environmental and ecological fields; The third quadrant representing the economic field ；the fourth quadrant representing the social area • Three rings of the radar chart: the inner ring represents the warning line; The outer ring represents the target line; the middle ring is a comparative line; the dotted lines represent the behaviors of the object of analysis • The characteristics are: (1) through setting warning signals, benchmarking and objective indicators as the background of radar signals, the regional development perspective and decision support can be visualized; (2) through system integration of key strategic indicators, we can visualize, track and achieve the quadruple bottom line management objectives; (3) through calculation and adjustments of these four areas, the degree of harmonization can be coordinated; (4) through scenario analysis, the forward-looking development perspective can be seen, so that early warning signals can be detected, and hence strategic deployment as well as the overall strategy can be adjusted.
LSSIM (Long-term Strategic System Integration Model) –For China 2050 study
SOFI and foresight The development postures for the future 40 years +scenario study
The harmonious degree • In order to increase the quantitative basis of long-term strategic management, we defined the harmonious degree, which manifests the coordinated development situation among the areas or elements required to be integrated under the principle of sustainable development. • The total harmonious degree refers to the coordinated degree among the fields of economy, society, environment and resources • the harmonious degree of the field refers to the coordinated degree among the important elements within each strategic areas. • 100% represents the optimum
B. Beyond GDP, Establishing Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) improving performance measures of political achievements GPI composed of social, economic and environmental accounts Economic factors of GPI • GDP is the key indicator to measure the economic growth at the present moment. However, it neither reflects the quality of economic growth, nor the total progress of society; nor is it the national happiness index. • Weighted Personal Consumption • Net Capital Investment • Value of Household Work and Parenting • Services of Household Consumer Durables • Net foreign lending • Volunteer work • Service of public capital Factors of environmental costs of GPI • Cost of long-term environmental damage • Loss of Wetlands • Cost of Water Pollution • Cost of Air Pollution • Cost of Ozone Depletion. • Cost of household pollution abatement • Cost of noise pollution • Loss of farmland • Cost of depletion of non-renewable resources • Loss of old-growth forests Factors of social costs of GPI • Cost of Overwork • Cost of Commuting • Cost of unemployment • Cost of Underemployment • Cost of Crime • Cost of Family Breakdown • Cost of Automobile Accidents and other urbanization costs
The trend of GDP and GPI • During 20 years from 1988 to 2007, Either China or the case city has been brought “genuine” progress with China’s economic miracle. During this period: • China’s GDP and GDP per capita increased by 5.33 times and 4.3 times respectively; GPI and GPI per capita increased by 3.9 times and 3.1 times • For the case city, GDP and GDP per capita increased by 8.56 times and 5.54 times respectively；GPI and GPI per capita increased by 7.69 times and 4.95 times Comparison of China's GDP and GPI trend The trend of GDP and GPI in the case city
The gap between GDP and GPI caused by social cost and environmental cost The negative share of environmental cost and social costs in GPI For China For the case city
High cost for the high GDP growth rate • The ratio between GPI and GDP reflects the proportion of real progress. • For whole China, this ratio declined from 59% in 1980 to 10% by 2000, and rose to 38% until 2007. This rise is mainly because the net capital investment surged since 2003 and China’s foreign debt turned into an increase in external assets since 2002. • For the case city, the ratio of GPI to GDP declined from 28.85% in 1988 to 18.84% in 2000, and then rebounded rapidly, rising to 37.8% by 2007. This is mainly because the net capital investment surged since 2001
C. China launch 10 national experimental zone for second step of development-Different type of Reform model • Shanghai 浦东新区－综合配套改革，2005.6 • Tianjin 海新区－综合配套改革 ,2006,5 • Chongqing city－统筹城乡综合配套改革,2007,6 • Chengdu city－统筹城乡综合配套改革,2007,6 • Wuhan 城市圈－资源节约型和环境友好型社会,2007,9 • Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan 城市群－资源节约型和环境友好型社会,2007,12 • Shenzhen city－综合配套改革,2009,5 • Shenyang 经济区－国家新型工业化,2010,4 • Shan’xi Province－资源型经济转型 ,20010,12 • Yiwu city－国际贸易综合改革,2011,3
Shan’xi Province－ Experimental Zone for Transformation of Resources base economy（2010.12） • First Experimental Zone in province level, for systematic reform model • Important base of China’s energy and raw material supply • Eco-environment is has been destroyed, Natural resources going to dry up, restrict sustainable development • I will in charge of the strategy and design a model of comprehensive ecological rebuild and development for 60,000 hektare wasteland in “Lu Liang mountainous area”
D. A technology revolution in China • It will make us completely take leave of the chemical agriculture • It provides direction for resolving the food safety radically • It will dissolve some crisis of human existence It is Tech-BIA • Open up the approach to the agriculture with zero agricultural chemical residues • Another method for treating incurable disease • Another kind of approach for pollution control
1. Tech-BIA: Bio-information Adjustment Technology One of the life soft-tech • Tech-BIA established new research method for life science by using their expression characteristics of the specific information spectrum of life matter. • As a living body, human is composed of physical matter (tangible entity substance) and life information (intangible spectrum of specific information). • Tech-BIA activates the visible part of the life (physical) by utilizing another long-neglected part of the life (intangible information) part, which to adjust the life information and field strength (energy) to create various solutions to solve the problems. • From the perspective of biochemistry, there is a commonness for living entities including animals, plants and micro-organisms,- is composed of the same four nucleotides in the gene level. • Thus, Tech-BIA’s application can reach as far as the treatment of human diseases, agriculture, animal husbandry, aquaculture, fisheries, pollution control and other aspects.
2. Agricultural applications of Tech-BIA • Chemical fertilizers are completely replaced by biological fertilizers, realizing safe food production with zero agricultural chemical residues • Instead of pesticides, plant protection agents are adopted －Applied in the 21 provinces and cities, as well as 70 counties in China. －Their biological fertilizers have been exported to 16 countries (Australia, Malaysia, Canada, Vietnam, Korea, Indonesia and Japan); two German companies have been carrying out follow-up study and cooperation for 3 years
3. San’an Food San’an food, is world one-up food without chemical residue, no pesticide residue and no drug residue, and accords with San’an Food Quality Standard. San’an Standards：204 Quality and Safety Standards of San’an Food ; 136 Operational Procedures ; 188 Quality Safety Inspection Methods of San’an Food. Their quality and safety have exceeded the standards of Positive List System for Agricultural Chemical Residues in Foods of Japan, Pesticide and Veterinary Drug Residues in Foods of EU and the standard for organic food of China (GB/Tl9630.l-GB/Tl9630.4). • 28 sample preparation
4. Treating diseases of immune injury • Considerable success has been achieved in follows －There are 62 kinds of biological drugs, including anti-AIDS drug "Picika" biological agents (it has met with approval by the State Food and Drug Administration on February 8, 2007, and carries out clinical applications in the 302 Hospital of PLA) －More than 600 success stories on the treatment of Cancer, AIDS, leukemia, diabetes and other incurable diseases.
5. A great inventor Professor Larry Cheung Chief scientist of CK Biotech Laboratory Ltd • The initial idea were established in 1974 • He has experienced great difficulties during 32 years, even be framed as metaphysics and put in prison, and passed from China to US, HK and come back to China. • Bold to challenge the traditional science • He has successfully innovated and integrated 108 outcomes, which can be used in the fields of bio-pharmacy, bio-agriculture and eco-environment. • Biggest regret: though there are a large number of successful practices, it has not been recognized by traditional academia: • We need broad international support, especially the support from the academia of future study.
Progress in study on Soft Technology 2011.1 2005.1 Preface for the Second English Edition by Theodore Jay Gordon Published by Intellect Bristol, UK /Chicago, USA