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State of the Macro-economy. Tanveer Singh Chandok (Director of Macroeconomics). World Economic State in a nutshell. World Economic State in a nutshell. Europe. Pulled out of the insane spiral at the end of 2012 Slow growth in 2013 Biggest problem currently: Credit Growth

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state of the macro economy

State of the Macro-economy

Tanveer Singh Chandok (Director of Macroeconomics)

world economic state in a nutshell
World Economic State in a nutshell

GTSF Investments Committee

world economic state in a nutshell1
World Economic State in a nutshell

GTSF Investments Committee

europe
Europe
  • Pulled out of the insane spiral at the end of 2012
  • Slow growth in 2013
  • Biggest problem currently: Credit Growth
    • Eurozone consumers are deleveraging but at a slower rate
  • Growth in the Eurozone mortgage loans continues to weaken
    • Primary contributors are Spain and Italy
      • Collapse in mortgage growth form the peak of 27% during pre-financial crises shows that the housing bubble in Spain is still unwinding
  • Bottom line: periphery of the Eurozone is still coming out the recession, ECB has not hit all targets

GTSF Investments Committee

north america fed up with the fed
North America: Fed up with the FED
  • GDP growth beat forecasts @ 2.5%
    • May initiate the FED to move with it’s tapering program
    • Stock prices rose, as did yields on govt. bonds
  • Recent surge in exports
  • Jobless claims in the U.S fell
  • Improving underlying private demand should support a pickup in GDP growth
  • Looking shaky towards the end of the quarter
    • FED tapering the $85 billion buy-back program
    • Estimates vary between as early as this September or mid-2014

GTSF Investments Committee

emerging submergin g markets
Emerging Submerging Markets

GTSF Investments Committee

china
China
  • Main monthly figures from trade to industrial output improved in July
  • In the middle of a transition from an investment-led economy to a consumption-driven one; and from an economy addicted to rapidly rising credit to one that is more self-sustaining
  • The transition has not occurred yet, and monetary policy will play a key role in determining the rate of growth

GTSF Investments Committee

japan
Japan
  • Q2 GDP growth @ 2.6% did not keep up with the blistering 3.6% growth towards the start of the year: still impressive
  • Shinzo Abe’s “3-arrow plan”:
    • Shocked the morbid economy into growth
    • The 3rd arrow, “structural reform” is still to prove it’s worth

GTSF Investments Committee