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Operational Use of the Rapid Update Cycle. Stan Benjamin - NOAA/FSL benjamin@fsl.noaa.gov http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov - RUC/MAPS web page. COMAP Symposium 16 December 1999. The 1-h Version of the RUC. Data cutoff - +20 min, 2nd run at +55 min at 0000, 1200 UTC. RUC/MAPS Purpose.

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Operational use of the rapid update cycle

Operational Use of the Rapid Update Cycle

Stan Benjamin - NOAA/FSL

benjamin@fsl.noaa.gov

http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov

- RUC/MAPS web page

COMAP Symposium

16 December 1999


Operational use of the rapid update cycle

The 1-h Version of the RUC

Data cutoff - +20 min, 2nd run at +55 min at 0000, 1200 UTC


Operational use of the rapid update cycle

RUC/MAPS Purpose

  • Provide high-frequency mesoscale analyses and short-range numerical forecasts for users including:

    • aviation

    • severe weather forecasting

    • general public forecasting

    • other transportation

    • agriculture


What runs where
What Runs Where

  • Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)

    • Operational Version at NCEP

  • Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS)

    • Experimental Version at NOAA/ERL/FSL

      (Essentially the same software.

      New capabilities tested first in MAPS at FSL)


Uses of the ruc
Uses of the RUC

  • Explicit Use of Short-Range Forecasts

  • Monitoring Current Conditions with Hourly Analyses

  • Evaluating Trends of Longer-Range Models

    Some places where the RUC is used

    • Aviation Weather Center - airmets, sigmets

    • Storm Prediction Center - severe weather watches

    • FAA – CWSUs, WARP, air traffic management (CTAS), ITWS..

    • National Weather Service Forecast Offices

    • Airline Forecasting Offices

    • NASA Space Flight Centers

    • Private vendors




Hourly data for 40 km maps ruc 2
Hourly Data for 40 km MAPS/RUC-2

Data Type ~Number Freq. Use

Rawinsonde (inc. special obs) 80 /12h NCEP and FSL

WPDN/NPN profilers 31 / 1h NCEP and FSL

- 405 MHz

Boundary layer profilers 15 / 1h FSL only

RASS (WPDN and PBL) 15 / 1h FSL only

VAD winds (WSR-88D) 110-130 / 1h **NCEP & FSL

Aircraft (ACARS)(V,temp) 700-3000 / 1h NCEP and FSL

Surface - land (V,psfc,T,Td) 1500-1700 / 1h NCEP and FSL

Buoy 100-200 / 1h NCEP and FSL

**not used since 1/99 in RUC

or EDAS pending QC issues

Yellow items new for RUC-2


Hourly data for 40 km maps ruc 2 cont
Hourly Data for 40 km MAPS/RUC-2 (cont).

Data Type ~Number Freq. Use

GOES precipitable water 1000-2500 / 1h NCEP and FSL

GOES high-density cloud

drift winds

(IR, VIS, WV cloud top) 1000-2500 / 3h NCEP and FSL

SSM/I precipitable water 1000-4000 /2-6h NCEP only

Ship reports 10s / 3h NCEP only

Reconnaissance

dropwinsonde a few / variable NCEP only

Yellow items new for RUC-2

Real-time observation counts at http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov for RUC-2

and 40-km MAPS


Operational use of the rapid update cycle

Advantages of q Coords for

Data Assimilation

Analysis

- adaptive 3-d correlation structures and

analysis increments, esp. nearbaroclinic zones

- improved coherence of observations near fronts for QC

Forecast Model

- reduced vertical flux through coordinate surfaces, leading to reduced vertical dispersion -- much of vertical motion implicit in 2-d horiz. advection

- conservation of potential vorticity

- reduced spin-up problems (Johnson et al. 93 MWR)


Operational use of the rapid update cycle

RUC hybrid-b levels - cross-section

Hybrid-b levels

- solid

q levels (every 6 K)

- dashed

No discontinuities

at q/stransitions


Operational use of the rapid update cycle

Effect of vertical coordinate

on frontal features

Turbulence diagnostic

at FL200 (20,000 ft)

- calculated from native grid

from both MesoEta and RUC

(matched forecast times)

Sharper frontal resolution

with RUC despite coarser

horizontal resolution and

fewer vertical levels


Operational use of the rapid update cycle

Rapid Update Cycle – Present and Next Version

1999 Operations 2000-01 Operations

Resolution 40 km, 40 q/s levels 2015 km, 40  50-60 q/s levels

Analysis Optimal interpolation on 3-d variational technique on generalized

on generalized q/s surfaces q/s surfaces, hydrometeor analysis w/

GOES…, use raw instead of interp. obs

Assimilation Intermittent 1-h cycle Intermittent 1-h cycle

Stable clouds Mixed-phase cloud microphysics MM5), Improved microphysics,

/precipitation explicit fcst of cloud water, rain water, addition of drizzle

snow, ice, graupel,

no. concentration of ice particles

Sub-grid-scale Grell (1993) Modified Grell, scale dependence,

precipitation shallow convection, interaction w/

cloud microphysics

Turbulence Burk-Thompson explicit TKE scheme Refined Burk-Thompson or e-

Radiation MM5 LW/SW scheme, f(hydrometeors) Refined MM5 scheme

Land-sfc processes 6-level soil/veg model (Smirnova, Add vertical soil type variability,

1997, 1999) w/ frozen soil, 2-layer snow improved cold season processes

Sfc conditions Daily 50km SST/14 km LST, Combine sat Tskin, use 3-d soil type

0.14 monthly NDVI veg frac, cycled soil

moisture/temp, snow depth/temp


Ruc 2 analysis
RUC-2 Analysis

  • Background (1-h fcst usually) subtracted from all obs

    • Analysis is of forecast error

  • QC - buddy check, removal of VADs w/ possible bird contamination problems

  • 3-part analysis (all using optimal interpolation)

    • 1) univariate precipitable water (PW) analysis - using satellite PW obs - update mixing ratio field

    • 2) z/u/v 3-d multivariate analysis

      • update v based on height/thickness analysis increment

      • update psfc from height analysis increment at sfc

      • update u/v at all levels

      • Partial geostrophic balance – vertically dependent, weakest at surface


Ruc 2 analysis cont
RUC-2 Analysis, cont.

- 3) univariate analyses

  • condensation pressure at all levels

  • v at all levels

  • update u/v near sfc and psfc (univariate analysis) with smaller correlation lengths

  • Pass through soil moisture, cloud mixing ratios, snow cover/temperature (will alter these fields in future, cloud analysis parallel cycle now running)


  • Ruc 2 analysis cont1
    RUC-2 Analysis, cont.

    • Vertical spreading (correlation of forecast error) based on potential temperature separation (not pressure separation as w/ other models)

    • Analysis in generalized vertical coordinate (code applicable to pressure, sigma, or eta analysis) except for adjustment at end to reference potential temperatures and new psfc

    • Background is usually previous 1 hr RUC forecast


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Raob sounding RUC2 grid sounding

    Close fit to observations in RUC2 analysis


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Raob RUC after fix RUC before fix

    7 April 99 significant-level fix in RUC-2


    Use of minimum topography for 2m t td fields from ruc2
    Use of ‘minimum topography’for 2m T/Td fields from RUC2

    RUC2 2m T/Td fields are not valid at model terrain surface

    Instead, they are derived from model surface fields and

    lapse rates in lowest 25 mb to estimate new values

    using a different topography field that more closely matches

    actual METAR elevations

    “Minimum topography” – minimum 10km value inside each

    40km grid box, then updated with high-resolution analysis

    using actual METAR elevations.


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    RUC2 topography fields

    Minimum topo for 2m T/Td

    Model topo


    Rucs 60 km hourly surface analyses same as awips msas
    RUCS 60 km Hourly Surface Analyses (same as AWIPS MSAS)

    • Draws fairly closely to data

    • Persistence background field (1 hr previous analysis

      • QC vulnerable to consistent data problems

      • no consistency with terrain effects except as reflected in observations

    • MAPS sea-level pressure, (Benjamin & Miller, 1990 MWR)

    • Blending to data-void region from NGM


    Surface analyses forecasts in ruc 2
    Surface Analyses/Forecasts in RUC-2

    • integrated with 3-d 40 km 1 hr cycle

    • dynamic consistency with model forecast => accounts for:

      • land/water, mtn circulations, sea/lake breezes, snow cover, vegetation…

    • improved quality control - model forecast background prevents runaway bullseyes

    • forecasts out to 12 hr in addition to hourly analyses


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Divergence - 0900 UTC 20 Jan 98

    (blue - conv, green/yellow - div)

    RUC2 Surface Analysis Topographical features more

    evident with model background

    RUCS 60km surface analysis

    Little consistency with nighttime drainage


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Divergence - RUC2 Surface Analysis - 0600Z 19 April 96

    Consistency with topographical features in model

    (land/water roughness length variations in this case)


    Surface analyses forecasts in ruc 2 cont
    Surface Analyses/Forecasts in RUC-2, cont.

    • Same fields as in 60 km RUCS, plus all fields available in 3-d system

      RUC-2 sfc files (GRIB)

      0.3 MB / output time

      all variables from RUCS plus

      precip

      precip type

      stability indices


    Ruc 2 use of surface data
    RUC-2 use of surface data

    All winds, sfc pressure obs used

    T/Td used if abs (Pstation - Pmodel) < 70 mb

    - about 90% west of 105ºW, 99% east of 105ºW

    Eta48 Eta29 RUC40

    FGZ 0 18 10

    TUS 60 13 44

    SLC 59 68 59

    MFR 109 48 67

    OAK 1815 25

    SAN 12 5 23

    DRA 42 29 34

    GJT 98 105 65

    RIW 104 27 16

    GEG 4 11 1

    GTF 26 4 14

    UIL 14 9 11

    SLE 50 15 22

    BOI 55 21 24

    GGW 29 13 5

    VBG 5 32 3

    |pmodel - pstn|

    ** within 5 mb of closest fit


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    RUC surface temperature forecasts

    - verification against all METARs in RUC domain

    Excellent analysis fit to surface obs (also wind, Td)

    3-h forecast better than 3-h persistence

    RMS error Bias (obs - forecast)

    persistence

    Validation time

    Validation time


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Effect of 6 May 1999 Fix

    to surface temperature

    diagnosis in RUC2

    Improved lapse rates in

    extrapolation from RUC2

    model terrain to different

    terrain file (“minimum

    topography”) used for

    sfc T/Td diagnosis.


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 g/kg

    Sfc virtual pot temp Sfc water vapor mix ratio

    Analysis increment fields (1h forecast error correction)

    RUC analysis

    2200 UTC 29 Oct 1999


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Wind 4 5 g/kg

    analysis increment fields (forecast error correction)

    -

    RUC analysis

    2200 UTC 29 Oct 1999


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    SLC CYS 4 5 g/kg

    Vertical cross-section – 2200 UTC 29 Oct 99

    RUC 3-d analysis

    Need for 3-d consistency to initialize model,

    other diagnostics


    Ruc 2 model
    RUC-2 Model 4 5 g/kg

    • Prognostic variables

      • Dynamic - (Bleck and Benjamin, 93 MWR)

        • v, p between levels, u, v

      • Moisture - (MM5 cloud microphysics)

        • q v, qc, qr, qi, qs, qg, Ni (no. conc. ice particles)

      • Turbulence - (Burk-Thompson, US Navy, 89 JAS)

      • Soil - temperature, moisture - 6 levels (down to 3 m)

      • Snow - water equivalent depth, temperature

        (soil/snow/veg model - Smirnova et al., 1997 MWR)


    Ruc 2 model cont
    RUC-2 Model, cont. 4 5 g/kg

    • Numerics

      • Continuity equation

        • flux-corrected transport (positive definite)

      • Advection of v, all q (moisture) variables

        • Smolarkiewicz (1984) positive definite scheme

      • Horizontal grid

        • Arakawa C

      • Vertical grid

        • Non-staggered, generalized vertical coordinate currently set as isentropic-sigma hybrid


    Ruc 2 model cont1
    RUC-2 Model, cont. 4 5 g/kg

    • Cumulus parameterization

      • Grell (Mon.Wea.Rev., 1993)

      • simplified (1-cloud) version of Arakawa-Schubert

      • includes effects of downdrafts

    • Digital filter initialization (Lynch and Huang, 93 MWR)

      • +/- 40 min adiabatic run before each forecast


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    RUC 4 5 g/kg

    Digital Filter

    Initialization

    40 Dt forward

    40 Dt backward

    - digital filter avg

    of model values

    Produces much

    smoother 1-h fcst

    Mean absolute sfc pres tendency each Dt in successive RUC runs


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Processes in RUC2/MM5 microphysics 4 5 g/kg

    (Reisner, Rasmusssen, Bruintjes, 1998, QJRMS)


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    RUC2 case study - Quebec/New England ice storm - 9 Jan 1998 4 5 g/kg

    500 mb height/vorticity - 9h RUC2 fcst valid 2100 UTC



    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    N-S cross-section - temperature (isopleths, int = 2 deg C, solid for > 0)

    RH (image), 9h RUC2 forecast

    YUL


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Montreal ice storm - 9h RUC2 forecast valid 2100 9 Jan 98 solid for > 0).

    N-S cross sections of RUC2 microphysics

    Water vapor mixing ratio / q

    Cloud water mixing ratio

    | YUL/Montreal

    Graupel mixing ratio

    Rain water mixing ratio


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    40 km RUC versus 32 km Eta solid for > 0)

    June-July

    1999


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    40 km RUC versus 32 km Eta solid for > 0)

    June-July

    1999


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    RUC vs. Eta 12-h fcsts solid for > 0)

    250mb RMS vector error

    12

    11

    10

    9

    8

    7

    6

    5

    From 80km grids for both models

    RUC uses 24h Eta for

    lateral boundary conditions

    Comparable skill, potential for ensembles


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    RUC 1, 3, 6, 12h forecasts valid at same time solid for > 0)

    (against 0000 and 1200 UTC rawinsonde data)

    Better wind and temperature forecasts with use of

    more recent asynoptic data


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    RUC/MAPS solid for > 0)

    Land-surface

    Process

    Parameterization

    (Smirnova et al.

    1997, MWR;

    1999, JGR)

    Ongoing cycle

    of soil moisture,

    soil temp, snow

    cover/depth/temp)

    2-layer snow model


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Previous MAPS vegetation New vegetation – BATS classes

    Addition of high-resolution EOS vegetation-type data to current 40km MAPS

    - September 1999


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    RUC/MAPS cycling of soil/snow fields BATS classes

    - soil temperature, soil moisture

    - snow water equivalent, snow temperature

    MAPS snow water equivalent depth (mm)

    5 Jan 1999 1800 UTC

    NESDIS snow cover field

    5 Jan 1999 2200 UTC

    1” 2” 3” 4” 5”


    Ruc2 output files cont
    RUC2 Output Files, cont. BATS classes

    • Significant changes to RUC AWIPS output

      Already started after NCEP fire

      • AWIPS files produced as each part of RUC is complete (analysis, 3h, 6h, 9h, 12h) rather than all produced after end of RUC forecast run

      • Hourly output of analysis and 3h fcst

      • New variables added - vertical velocity (3-d), lots of 2-d grids

      • New 2-d variables - cloud top/base, visibility, gust speed, PBL height, conv cloud top, eq level, pres(max qe)

        Likely to start within next few months

      • 212 grids (236 subset of 212 - 151x113 RUC domain) will be available (not certain of comms yet)


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Visibility Sfc wind gust speed BATS classes

    Examples of new diagnostic fields from RUC


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    RUC visibility and ceiling BATS classes

    vs.

    METAR IFR/MVFR

    1700 UTC 4 Dec 1999


    Maintenance of operational ruc
    Maintenance of operational RUC BATS classes

    • Operational production at FSL of backup RUC products in real time from 1 Oct thru 15 Nov 1999

      • Software and scripts developed and implemented on separate SGI Origin for backup.

      • Monitoring, verification, new web sites, web forum

      • Daily coordination with NCEP and NWS/OSO


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    RUC/MAPS 1-h cloud-top fcsts BATS classes

    with and without

    GOES cloud-top assimilation

    (clearing and building)

    (1200 UTC 14 May 1999)

    1-h fcst w/o GOES cloud assim

    1-h fcst w/ hourly GOES cloud assim

    NESDIS cloud-top (verification)


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Visible satellite image at BATS classes

    1745z 28 Oct 99

    1-h MAPS cloud-top fcst

    with previous GOES assimilation

    -- valid 18z 28 Oct 99

    Correspondence between MAPS cloud fcsts and sat images

    - improved with GOES cloud-top assimilation


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Parallel BATS classes- with cloud analysis

    0.7

    Control - no cloud analysis

    0.5

    0.3

    Julian date

    September 1999 - fall

    Cloud-top verification with and without initial cloud analysis

    - correlation coefficient between RUC forecasts and

    NESDIS cloud-top pressures

    Significant improvement in RUC cloud-top forecasts with

    cloud analysis, esp. for 1-h forecasts,

    but smaller but consistent improvement even in 12-h forecasts


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Verification of BATS classes

    MAPS

    cloud-top fcsts

    against NESDIS

    product

    Frequency

    scatter plot for

    each MAPS

    grid point

    Cloud tops valid

    Sunday 21 Nov 99

    1800 UTC

    Control run

    no GOES

    Parallel run

    w/ GOES

    1-h fcsts

    pres

    9-h fcsts


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    No GOES BATS classes

    w/GOES

    Impact of GOES cloud-top assimilation in MAPS parallel cycle test

    - July-August 1999

    Improved 3h RH forecasts with GOES cloud assimilation,

    especially at 300-500 hPa. Less impact at 850-700 hPa.


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Visible satellite image at BATS classes

    1745z 28 Oct 99

    NESDIS

    Cloud-top product

    (sounder-based)

    1800z 28 Oct 99


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Addition of national radar data to RUC cloud analysis BATS classes

    Access software for national radar (both 4km NEXRAD and

    2km NOWRAD) data developed

    Initial comparisons between GOES cloud-top pressures and

    national radar data – both mapped to RUC 40km grid


    Apr 99 emergency change for ruc2
    Apr 99 emergency change for RUC2 BATS classes

    • Correctly uses raob sig-level temp/dewpoint data now.

    • Previously, missed sig-level T/Td data (TTBB) and forced in linearly interpolated structures between mandatory levels.

    • Significant improvement in RUC grid sounding structures and in overall RUC performance


    May 99 post proc fixes for ruc2
    May 99 post-proc fixes for RUC2 BATS classes

    • Bug/consistency fixes for diagnosis of sfc T/Td in RUC2. (fix to lapse rate range)

      • Biases in west US for T/Td reduced, 2 °C  0

      • s.d. temps over US from 2.0  1.4 °C

      • (verification against METAR obs)

    • CAPE- searches lowest 300 mb, not 180 mb

    • More smoothing of isobaric winds in lower troposphere, near tropopause

    • Use of NESDIS ice field

    • Much faster running of RUC - 10 procs for all runs


    June 99 fix to veg fraction bug
    June 99 fix to veg fraction bug BATS classes

    Vegetation fraction in RUC was erroneously set to zero

    due to integer/real problem (only a problem w/ NCEP RUC,

    not in FSL MAPS/RUC)

    Responsible for warm bias from 2100-0900 UTC increasing

    during May. Also resulted in dry bias and too little precip


    July sept nov dec 1999 fixes
    July/Sept/Nov/Dec 1999 fixes BATS classes

    26 July - fix to moisture in RUC boundary conditions

    from Eta

    - Eliminate erroneous precip near RUC boundaries

    especially over warm oceans

    28 Sept – start IBM version of RUC – faster post-processing

    21 Nov – fix canopy water cycling problem that had caused

    too moist soil for about 1 week

    Dec ? – 8 new variables in post-processing – visibility, cloud base/top, sfc wind gust, PBL height, conv. Cld top, equilibrium level, pres of max theta-e


    Ruc 2 weaknesses
    RUC-2 Weaknesses BATS classes

    • Still some precip spin-up problem, despite cycling of cloud/precip variables, esp. for light precip/overrunning (1-3 hr late)

      • Fix: Add cloud analysis - 1999 - 1st version, allow for cloud at RH < 100%

  • Too much precip over warm oceans, too little near SE coast in cold season

    • Dec 98 fix package helped some - work underway on fixing tendencies input to Grell convective parameterization

    • Fix now running in backup RUC – look at web page prods

  • Daytime convective precip in summer too widespread

    • Upcoming fix on tendencies input to Grell scheme

    • Fix now running in backup RUC


  • Ruc 2 weaknesses cont
    RUC-2 Weaknesses, cont. BATS classes

    • Convective precip forecasts miss many small areas, underforecast peak amounts.

      • Lower equitable threat score than Eta

      • more detailed than Eta

    • Too much graupel near 0ºC

      • Fix: with 20-km RUC (perhaps sooner), collaboration with FSL and NCAR on microphysics fixes

  • Diurnal cycle of surface temperature a little too weak

    • a little too warm at night

      • Dec 98 fix package - sfc flux change, radiation fix, GRIB precision to allow proper soil moisture cycling

      • May 99 fix - improve diagnosis of sfc temp/Td diagnosis -- significant reduction in bias

      • Upcoming fix to SW radiation 0-60 min phase delay

  • Detailed (noisy?) output compared to other models, especially vertical velocity

    • Detail is probably realistic over terrain


  • Fixed ruc 2 weaknesses
    Fixed RUC-2 Weaknesses BATS classes

    • Analysis sounding structure

      • irregular near ground if only sfc data assimilated

        Fix: analysis tuning (Dec 98)

        Fix: sig-level bug fix (Apr 99) *****************

    • CAPE/CIN

      • analysis values previously too high in high CAPE areas

      • jump between analysis and 1-h forecasts

        Fix: CAPE software (Dec 98)

        (May 99 - parcel search now in lowest 300 mb, not 180 mb layer)


    Ruc 2 strengths
    RUC-2 Strengths BATS classes

    • Surface fields, especially surface winds

      • sfc files

        • analysis and forecast

        • small

        • standard sfc fields plus precip, stability, precip type

    • Topographically induced circulations

      • sea/lake breezes (scale too large but they’re there)

      • mtn/valley circulations

      • differential friction effects

        • e.g. – Catalina eddy


    Ruc 2 strengths cont
    RUC-2 Strengths, cont. BATS classes

    • Precipitation fields

      • more detailed than Eta (lower FAR but lower POD)

    • Snow accumulation

      • explicit, not diagnosed (from MM5 microphysics)

    • Precipitation type

      • uses explicit hydrometeor mixing ratios/fall rates

    • Upper-level features

      • hybrid / coordinate

      • winds, PV, temps, fronts, more coherent vorticity structures on isobaric surfaces


    Ruc 2 strengths cont1
    RUC-2 Strengths, cont. BATS classes

    • Lower tropospheric temp/RH

      • good fcst sounding structure (esp. after 4/99 fix)

      • hybrid coordinate

    • Soil/hydro fields

      • soil moisture - cycled in 6-level soil model

      • surface runoff, canopy water, dew formation, etc.

    • Vertical velocity

      • available in RUC-2

      • good mtn wave depiction, frontal features

    • Hourly analyses

      • available much sooner than RUC-1 grids


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    MesoEta BATS classes

    RUC

    Theta

    Mtn wave comparison - MesoEta vs. RUC2


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    MesoEta BATS classes

    RUC

    U - component

    Mtn wave comparison - MesoEta vs. RUC


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    W - vertical velocity BATS classes

    Mtn wave comparison - MesoEta vs. RUC


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Subset of full domain BATS classes

    20km RUC/MAPS

    topography

    - 2000

    • Will use

    • 20km versions of

      • EOS veg data

      • 3-d STATSGO soil data

    • improved data assimilation (sat cloud products, 3dVAR, later - radar, sfc cloud data, lightning, GPS IPW)


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    13km RUC - 12h forecast - start 0000 UTC 27 October 1997 BATS classes

    Precipitation

    Surface winds


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    10 BATS classes

    20

    25

    20

    13km RUC - 6h forecast valid 06Z 27 Oct 97

    6-h precipitation (cm), wind speed (m/s) in cross-section


    The future of the ruc
    The Future of the RUC BATS classes

    • Transfer of current 40km RUC2 to IBM SP

      • completed Sept 1999

      • faster, distributed post-processing

    • 20 km 1 hr version on IBM SP

      • Probably by summer 2000

      • 3-d variational analysis

      • Cloud/hydrometeor analysis using satellite combined with explicit cloud fcsts in RUC-2

    • Later, assimilation of new data sets: radar, sfc cloud obs, sat. cloudy/clear radiances (GOES/POES), hourly precipitation analyses, WSR-88D radial winds, lightning, GPS precipitable water, sat water vapor winds


    The future of the ruc cont
    The Future of the RUC, cont. BATS classes

    • Improved physical parameterizations, including cloud microphysics (freezing drizzle), surface physics (frozen soil, high-resolution soil and surface data sets), and turbulence physics

  • Higher resolution versions

    • 13-15 km/60 level - 2001

  • Applications to air quality, coupled air chemistry?

  • Extensive NAOS observation sensitivity tests

  • WRF version of RUC


  • The future of the ruc cont1
    The Future of the RUC, cont. BATS classes

    • Non-hydrostatic q-sz model under development

      • Generalized vertical coordinate

      • Nudging of coordinate surfaces toward “grid generator”

        • can be set as smoothed quasi-isentropic hybrid coordinate

          • treats sub~20km variations (convective clouds, breaking mountain waves) w/ quasi-horizontal coordinates

          • treats >20km variations w/q-sz coordinates

      • Collaboration between University of Miami (Rainer Bleck, Zuwen He), FSL (John Brown, Stan Benjamin), and NCAR (Bill Skamarock)

      • Part of WRF model (Weather Research and Forecast - NCAR/FSL/NCEP/CAPS) effort - a generalized vertical coordinate option.

      • WRF-based RUC probably by 2005-6 at 5-8 km scale

      • 30-min cycle or finer?


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Quasi-isentropic option for WRF non-hydrostatic model BATS classes

    Breaking mountain wave simulation - 2 km horizontal resolution

    Sigma-z version Quasi-isentropic version

    Thick - q

    Thin -

    coordinate

    surfaces


    Operational use of the rapid update cycle

    Rapid Update Cycle – Present and Next Version BATS classes

    1999 Operations 2000-01 Operations

    Resolution 40 km, 40 q/s levels 2013-15 km, 40  50-60 q/s levels

    Analysis Optimal interpolation on 3-d variational technique on generalized

    on generalized q/s surfaces q/s surfaces, hydrometeor analysis w/

    GOES…, use raw instead of interp. obs

    Assimilation Intermittent 1-h cycle Intermittent 1-h cycle

    Stable clouds Mixed-phase cloud microphysics MM5), Improved microphysics,

    /precipitation explicit fcst of cloud water, rain water, addition of drizzle

    snow, ice, graupel,

    no. concentration of ice particles

    Sub-grid-scale Grell (1993) Modified Grell, scale dependence,

    precipitation shallow convection, interaction w/

    cloud microphysics

    Turbulence Burk-Thompson explicit TKE scheme Refined Burk-Thompson or e-

    Radiation MM5 LW/SW scheme, f(hydrometeors) Refined MM5 scheme

    Land-sfc processes 6-level soil/veg model (Smirnova, Add vertical soil type variability,

    1997, 1999) w/ frozen soil, 2-layer snow improved cold season processes

    Sfc conditions Daily 50km SST/14 km LST, Combine sat Tskin, use 3-d soil type

    0.14 monthly NDVI veg frac, cycled soil

    moisture/temp, snow depth/temp


    Feedback
    Feedback BATS classes

    • Send feedback/questions on RUC performance to the RUC discussion forum.

    • Invite us to workshops.

    • http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov/forum/eval

      303-497-6387

      benjamin@fsl.noaa.gov