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Tackling the 3Rs: Resourcing, Recruitment and Retention Natalie Perera Executive Director, Education Policy Institute. The social mobility challenge. 2. The overall attainment gap is narrowing……………………..slowly. 3.
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Tackling the 3Rs: Resourcing, Recruitment and Retention Natalie Perera Executive Director, Education Policy Institute
The overall attainment gap is narrowing……………………..slowly 3
The gap at age 5 (EYFSP) is around 40% of the total size reached by age 16 (GCSE) • It grows less during primary school, despite this being a longer stage • Another two fifths of the gap emerge during secondary school When does the disadvantage gap develop? 4
The gap exists everywhere, but it varies from place to place Early years Primary Secondary 5
Opportunity Areas are targeted at areas of need, but the problem of large disadvantage gaps is much wider Secondary gaps (light green = largest) Opportunity Areas 6
Schools with larger proportions of disadvantaged pupils are closing the gap faster than more affluent schools Primary Schools Secondary Schools 7
Primary and secondary school spending increased by over 50 per cent between 2000-01 and 2009-10. • But spending per pupil, including 6th forms, fell by 8 per cent in real terms between 2009-10 and 2016-17. There is increasing pressure on school budgets + 50% - 8%% Source: IFS 2018, ‘Annual report on education spending in England’, September 2018 9
Total spending on children’s services doubled in real terms over the 2000s, growing from around £4.8 billion in 2000–01 to £9.7 billion in 2009–10. • But it then fell in real terms by about 11% between 2009–10 and 2017–18. If this pace of cuts continues to 2019–20, it would lead to a total fall in real terms of 14% over the decade. Funding for children’s services is also falling - 4% - 11% + 50% Source: Children’s Commissioner 2018, ‘Public spending on children in England’, June 2018 10
More schools with deficit balances, even more with in-year deficits • . • Almost a third of LA maintained secondary schools are now in deficit – a sharp increase since 2014 when that figure stood at just over 8 per cent. • The picture for primary and special schools is much lower – at 8 and 10 per cent respectively. Source: J. Andrews ‘School revenue balances in England’, January 2019 11
Yorkshire and Humber has the highest proportion of secondary schools in deficit • . • Yorkshire and Humber has the highest proportion of maintained secondary schools in deficit – rising from 11.7% in 2010-11 to nearly 40 per cent in 2017-18. • The East of England has the lowest proportion but has nevertheless seen a significant increase since 2010: from 4.5% in 2010-11 to 21.3% in 2017-18. 12
The allocation of the teacher pay grant is likely to benefit smaller schools with a more affluent intakeAllocating the pay grant based on pupil numbers results in around 6% of schools receiving 25% less funding than they need, with disadvantaged most affected. 13
. The number of teachers has not kept pace with the number of pupils • Pupil numbers up by 10 per cent since 2010 while teacher numbers have been steady. Increase in PTR from 15.5 to around 17. • Teacher exit rates have also increased, only 60 per cent of teachers remain in state-funded schools five years after qualifying. Source: L Sibieta, ‘The teacher labour market in England’, August 2018 15
. Considerable variation in ‘highly-qualified’ teachers between different subjects • Under half of teachers in mathematics and physics hold a degree in those subjects. These areas are also those with the greatest recruitment and retention challenges. • Social gradient to likelihood of being taught by a teacher with a degree in the subject. Source: L Sibieta, ‘The teacher labour market in England’, August 2018 16
Considerable variation in ‘highly-qualified’ teachers between different subjects • Specialist teachers tend to be highest in London and neighbouring counties. • They tend to be lowest in East Anglia, the South Coast, Welsh borders and fringe areas of Birmingham. Source: L Sibieta, ‘The teacher labour market in England’, August 2018 17
. Can a curriculum-based funding approach help? 18
The twin challenges of funding and workforce – the level of spend on teachers means the two go hand in hand • Expenditure on teachers accounts for around half of all school spending – over £20bn each year. • Discussion of efficiency needs to include teaching workforce, but that raises issues such as class sizes and workload. • . Source: EPI analysis of Consistent Financial Reporting and Academies Account Returns 19
The twin challenges of funding and workforce – the role of integrated curriculum financial planning • . • At the individual school or academy trust level a combined approach to curriculum and financial planning can yield significant savings, ensuring a workforce that has the right number and right mix of teachers. • At the system level, a fully efficient deployment would ‘release’ teachers to the system. Can we get them to where they are most needed? 20
Integrated planning – what staffing mix do we need to deliver the curriculum we want to deliver? • . • DfE’s top 10 planning checks for governors published earlier this year includes several things that are relevant: • The pupil teacher ratio (PTR) – how many pupils are there to each teach in the school and how this varies across different key stages; • Class sizes • Contact ratio – the percentage of a teacher’s time that is spent teaching. • A very simplified approach enables us to combine those factors to calculate the number of teachers we need • 1000 pupils, class size of 25, contact ratio 0.78 => 51.3 teachers 21
Integrated planning – what if we applied that simple approach across all secondary schools? • . • Applying those assumptions to pupil and teacher numbers across all c. 3,000 secondary schools would imply that: • Almost all schools have more teachers than they need • These ratios could be achieved with 20 per cent fewer teachers • Nationally, saving would be equivalent to 40,000 FTE teachers or approximately £2bn • But of course, it’s not really that simple. Source: EPI analysis of DfE ‘Compare school performance’ workforce data 2016/2017 22
Integrated planning – why those key factors are just a starting point • . • A number of limitations to that simplified analysis and why it’s difficult to jump from national datasets to the realities of managing a school: • Are there groups of pupils that require smaller class sizes? • Are there subjects that require smaller class sizes, or ones that we are happy to have smaller class sizes if it means we can run them? • How do we structure middle and senior leadership roles, what proportion of their time is spent in the classroom or is it all on management? • Do we have the right teachers with the right skills to deliver this offer? • What about non-teaching staff costs, in particular around TAs and other pastoral care? • There is no set, prescriptive way of doing this. Talking to MATs we saw a variety of approaches. 23
. What next? 24
What next for policy and research? • . • DfE teacher recruitment and retention strategy likely to be published by the end of January • Spending Review now likely to be in Autumn 2019 • EPI research over the next year will include: • Scrutinising pupil movement in and out of schools • Analysing trends in teacher pay and qualifications across the contry • Long term patterns of expenditure within schools and by local authorities • Benchmarking efficiency at school and trust level • Analysing the impact of the National Funding Formula • Trends in curriculum offer and take up 25