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Rainfall Forecasting and its Applications FIJI CASE STUDY . Janita Pahalad Simon McGree National Climate Centre Climate Service Division Aust. Bureau of Meteorology Fiji Meteorological Service. Rainfall Forecasting Models – In Brief. FMS Rainfall Prediction Model (RPM) –

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rainfall forecasting and its applications fiji case study

Rainfall Forecasting and its ApplicationsFIJI CASE STUDY

Janita Pahalad Simon McGree

National Climate Centre Climate Service Division

Aust. Bureau of Meteorology Fiji Meteorological Service

rainfall forecasting models in brief
Rainfall Forecasting Models – In Brief
  • FMS Rainfall Prediction Model (RPM) –
    • Operational since July 1999
    • 3 months forecast
    • 25 stations
  • Australian Rainman Model (AusRain) –
    • Operational since August 1999
    • 1 to 12 months forecast
    • 21 stations
statistical models
Statistical Models
  • Requires good quality, unbroken long historical data
  • Simple, easily implemented, can run on desktop PC
  • May require initial programming expertise
  • Easily modified
  • Implemented anywhere with local data
applications
Applications
  • Drought Prediction Scheme
  • Flooding incidences
  • Frequency of tropical cyclones
user applications
User Applications
  • Agriculture – namely sugar industry
  • Forestry
  • Disaster managers
  • Water resource managers
  • Military
  • Red Cross
  • Hospitals
  • Civil Aviation
  • Construction
  • Tourism
information dissemination
Information Dissemination
  • FMS Monthly Weather Summary
  • Website: http://www.met.gov.fj/
  • Media (Newspapers/radio)
  • Direct contact
  • Press Releases
  • DMET’s monthly meeting with DISMAC
concerns and future needs
Concerns and Future Needs
  • Users – sceptical about forecast – still fairly new concept in this region
  • Lack of understanding (or acceptance) of probabilistic forecasts
  • Need for public education on ENSO
  • Need to expand user network
  • Need for timely national climate forum
  • Need to further customise user products
concerns and future needs1
Concerns and Future Needs
  • Educating the media is most needed
  • Limited interaction between FMS and water sector – should be enhanced
  • Examples like FSC and FPL should be applied in other sectors
main points
Main Points
  • FMS example can be applied to other PIC.
  • Local knowledge is important and should be used
  • Regional/global models can be applied but there may be a need to downscale
  • Climate forecasting is still fairly new in the Region – public awareness is vital
  • Many prefer deterministic forecasts