Duurzame Technologie eist sturing

1. Duurzame Technologie eist sturing Lunchlezing Netwerk DO 11 dec 2002 Prof. Dr. Philip J. Vergragt

2. Duurzame Technologie eist sturing • Inleiding: Duurzame Ontwikkeling • Het programma DTO • Het SusHouse project • Transities en transitiemanagement • Maatschappelijke sturing?

3. Introducing myself: • Ph.D. in physical Chemistry (1976) • (Senior) Lecturer in Chemistry and Society, Groningen University (1976-90) • Researcher in technological innovation studies • Policy maker, Dutch Ministry of the Environment (1990-92) • Dept. Director, Sustainable Technological Development Programme (1993-97) • Chair of Technology Assessment, Delft University of Technology: TBM 1991-1999; Industrial Design (1999-2002)

4. 1. Sustainable Development Sustainable Development is development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (Brundtland, 1987)

5. Sustainable development (2) Three aspects are central in this definition: • Fulfillment of (basic) needs • Equity between North and South • Solidarity with future generations

6. Introduction • The Dutch NEPP-4 (2001) calls for transitions, system innovations, in order to address persistent environmental problems. • Transitions are: “gradual continuous processes of societal changes in which society changes structurally” • They imply coordinated developments in culture, technology, economics, ecology, institutions, behavior, worldviews

7. Strategies for sustainable development • Technological strategies: the Dutch Program “Sustainable Technological Development” (1993-1997) • Socio-technical strategies: The EU project “Strategies towards the Sustainable Household” (1998-2000) • System strategies: The new Dutch National Environmental Policy Plan (2001-)

8. STD Program: factor 20 Factor 20 was defined by the following equation: Year EB M Pr WP 2000: 1 = 1 x 1 x 1 2050: ½ = 1/20 x 5 x 2 EB = Environmental Burden M = Metabolism; environmental burden per unit of need fulfillment Pr = Level of production and consumption WP = World Population

9. Factor 20 and back-casting • Back-casting is: looking back from a desired or unavoidable future towards the present • 2050: desired: -a sustainable society -equity between North and South -reduction of total environmental burden • 2050: unavoidable: -population growth

10. 2. The Dutch STD Program • In the Dutch “Sustainable Technological Development Program” (STD, 1993-97), it was postulated that in a sustainable society needs will have to be fulfilled by a factor 20 less environmental burden per unit of need fulfillment. • Needs are defined as nutrition, water, shelter, transportation, recreation, etc.

11. Time horizons factor 20 System innovation; transitions Technological innovation; from products to services End of pipe technologies; Good house keeping; ecodesign 1 2000 2050

12. STD Program: Aims The aims of the STD Program were: (Weaver et al, 2000): • Integrate sustainability policy and technology policy • Develop, demonstrate, and evaluate methodologies for influencing innovation processes in the direction of sustainable technologies • Initiate new technological trajectories related to key areas of need

13. STD Program: Aims (2) • Engage and involve stakeholders in innovation processes • Demonstrate that sustainable technologies are possible, in principle, if research, development, and innovation processes are appropriately oriented and resourced • Disseminate and communicate programme results, nationally and internationally, among innovators, policy makers, opinion leaders, and partners in implementing sustainability

14. STD: Illustrative Processes • Nutrition • Novel Protein Foods • Multifunctional land use • Mobility • Urban underground freight transport • Mobile hydrogen fuel cell • Buildings and urban space • Sustainble public housing • Sustainble office space • Services provided by water: municipal water chain • Services provided by materials/chemicals

15. STD: Methodology • Strategic Problem Orientation • Development Future Vision • Back-casting • Explore solution options • Selection and generate action plan • Set up cooperative agreements; define roles • Implementation research agenda

16. 3. STD-Methodologie • Vision Development: Strategicproblem orientation Back-casting Future vision

17. Back-casting (1) • Back-casting is reasoning backwards from a sustainable and desirable future vision towards the present (direct or in steps) • And in the present developing activities aimed at realization of that future vision

18. Back-casting factor 20 Future vision 1. Creativityworkshop 3. 2. Short-term project Back-casting; Actionplanning 1 2000 2050

19. Back-casting (2): elements: • Technological innovations (leap-frogs?) • Cultural breaches of trend • Mobilization of stakeholders (interested and affected) • Short-term barriers • Long term trends

20. Back-casting (3) • Look back from a desired future • Define intermediate goals under way • Develop Socio-Technical Experiments • Evaluate social and organizational learning • Develop intervention policies

21. Culture, Structure, and Technology • In STD need fulfillment is central • Technological innovations alone cannot reach factor 20 • Cultural changes are necessary (how are our needs constituted) • Structural changes are necessary: economics, infrastructure, knowledge infrastructure,

22. Interaction between technology, culture, and structure structure culture Which? How to organize? Social needs By what means? technology

23. Outcomes of STD: • A number of projects; some of them are still going on (Multiple Sustainable Land Use; Sustainable Transportation; Novel Protein foods; Sustainable Chemistry) • A book • A Methodology • The SusHouse project • A new policy approach

24. 4. The EU Sustainable Household project • The present households consume a lot of energy, water, detergents, fuels for transportation, consumption goods, and are quickly becoming the main source of resource depletion, environmental solution, loss of biodiversity, climate change, etc • STD learned: technological solutions alone are not enough; socio-cultural changes are also needed

25. Aim of the SusHouse project • The aim of the project is to develop and evaluate strategies for transitions towards sustainable households • Three household functions are selected as cases: nutrition, shelter, and clothing care

26. Why the Household? • Households pollute a lot: -energy: electricity, heating, cooling -water consumption -Waste generation • In households consumer demand is constructed • Consumers form an ‘untamed’ problem for policy makers

27. Definition of the household • The household is the smallest economic unit in society • Persons living in a household share certain functions like: • Living space • Shopping • Cooking • Eating • Washing clothes • Leisure time • holidays

28. Methodology • Develop future visions in creativity workshops with stakeholders • Derive Design Orienting Scenarios (DOSs) from future visions • Environmental, economic assessments, and consumer acceptance research of DOSs and proposals • Back-casting and implementation workshops with stakeholders

29. Segedi Tudományegyetem S Z É F College-Faculty of Food Industry INSTITUTIONS RESEARCH TEAM

30. RESEARCH TEAMS NETHERLANDS… UK… GERMANY… ITALY… HUNGARY…

31. Internal organization:9 country projects

32. Results:Integrated vision Collective Come together Neighborhood food center Collective Clothing Care CARE OUTSOURCING Clothing care outsourcing Comfort management services Neighborhood food center CARE SOCIALISING Enabling Relieving Local and green My clothes, my eternal friends Natural living EASY CARE High-tech rural garden Wearables Edumation Soft clothing care High-tech eating Virtual shopping Easy clothing Care Active House HIGH CARE SOFT CARE Individual

33. Results:Integrated vision Collective Come together Neighborhood food center Collective Clothing Care CARE OUTSOURCING Clothing care outsourcing Comfort management services Neighborhood food center CARE SOCIALISING Enabling Relieving Local and green My clothes, my eternal friends Natural living EASY CARE High-tech rural garden Wearables Edumation Soft clothing care High-tech eating Virtual shopping Easy clothing Care Active House HIGH CARE SOFT CARE Individual

34. Clothing Care Outsourcing (CC) Comfort management service (Sh) Neighborhood food center (SCE, Nl) Service scenario Households without appliances Environmental gain by better management Care Outsourcing

35. OUTSOURCING CARE The scenario is characterised by a certain deconstruction of the household as it is traditionally thought as a place for the fulfilment of domestic functions. The household is emptied of domestic appliances and is either, the point of arrival of incoming services delivered to the home or, a central life-base from which the household members reach external services installed in the neighbourhood. A range of services provides the household members with ready-to-consume solutions, such as: warmth and light; prepared food; clean clothes…like a hotel. In a less luxurious/cocoon-like solution, local service points propose the same solutions at a short distance from the household. The environmental goals of the scenario refer to bigger scales than the level of the single household would allow. Both management and processes of the various functions are externalised to qualified, bigger structures such as restaurants or clothing care centre which are more likely to implement and control sustainable technology. Even household heating and lighting systems are managed and upgraded by external comfort management services to guarantee the eco-efficiency. HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO

36. Care Socializing Come together (Sh, Ge) Neighborhood food center (SCE, Nl) Collective Clothing Care (CC) • Community interaction • Sharing resources, products, and services • Scale economies possible • Inversion of “individualistic values”

37. CARE SOCIALISING The "care socialising” DOSs are based on a certain level of community life, of collective resources, of sharing of products and services. The household opens to different levels of collective spaces dedicated to the fulfilment of certain domestic functions together with other households from the neighbourhood, (e.g. cooking and eating together, helping each other taking care and repairing clothes). Other collective places are also dedicated to collective forms of work, (e.g. participation in a clothing care centre providing the complement of human work necessary to the process in exchange to the access to the service for the cleaning of the personal clothes). The values are focussed on the community favouring typical collective notions such as: -"the efficiency of the group", (e.g. sharing/exchanging clothes allow intensification of use, less waste and cutting costs); - the "feeling of belonging to a community", (e.g. sharing dinning table with neighbour; exchanging clothes…all with the symbolic value those actions involve); and, - the "personal investment in the building and management of common resources", (e.g. "community work" complementary to "paid work" as source of structure and identity for individuals). HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO

38. Local and Green (SCE) My clothes, my eternal friends (CC, Nl, Ge) Natural living (Sh, UK) Lifestyle close to nature Reduced consumption Local accessible natural resources High Care

39. HIGH-CARE On one hand the "high-care" scenario is based on a lifestyle in line with natural models. Daily rhythms adapt to the seasonal variations of natural daylight. Diet is based on food available in the householder’s region. Clothing is developed and cared for maximum durability. On the other hand, the DOSs require commitment from the household members in terms of: - personal contribution to domestic tasks, (e.g. preparation of food from basic ingredients or repairing and cleaning of clothes); and, - general eco-management of the household (e.g. adaptation of the isolation system of the house according to seasonal climate changes or management of the energy production systems). In environmental terms, the "high-care" scenario is based above all on the drastic reduction of the household members’ expectations considering the possibilities and limits of the local natural resources. Consumption tends to be cut down (e.g. the wardrobe is restricted to a few pieces of clothes; food is limited to the varieties and species available in the region; consumption of energy for heating and lighting is limited to the possibilities of local production). Products and equipment are used intensively (e.g. architectural components allow reconfiguration of the living space according to seasonal climate changes; clothes are repaired and up-graded in order to optimise their life-time). The various DOSs developed for each Functions do not show a strategy of implementation of the household "high-care" scenario but the apparent austerity ¤642 (WASHING SERVICE INCL.) HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO

40. Soft Clothing Care (CC,It) Wearables (Sh, It) Edumation (Sh, Ge) High Tech Rural Garden SCE, Hu) High involvement of household members Highly sophisticated technical system Soft Care

41. SOFT CARE A fifth cluster, less focalised and less rich in DOSs than the four former ones, describes a household DOS characterised both by a high attention/implication of the household members in the fulfilment of the domestic tasks and a highly sophisticated system assisting them in these tasks. Clothing care is fulfilled as a succession of small interventions over the week, (e.g. ventilation of bad smell; soft low temperature cleaning; use of local stain remover), through a full range of dedicated appliances. Part of the food comes from local production in a high-tech greenhouse proposed as an evolution of the house garden. Short cuts in the domestic heating is compensated by sophisticated heating clothes. As already stated the 'soft care" function DOSs provide characteristic examples but are not exclusive of this cluster and thus, the description of this vision will be less complete than the other ones. In environmental terms, the aim of the "soft care" DOSs are to create a synergy/cross-fertilisation between on one hand, a lifestyle more aware and careful for the environment and on the other hand, the implementation of a technical infrastructure maximising the sustainability of the household. The energy control system allow the among of energy used to be visualised at any moment by each of the separated appliances of the household providing a feed-back mechanism on the household members patterns and raising awareness on activities with higher environmental impacts. The daily care of clothes is done with HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO

42. High Tech Eating/ Robo kitchen/ intelligent cooking and storing (SCE) Virtual shopping (SCE, UK) Easy Clothing Care (CC, It) Active House (Sh, Ge) High tech equipment; automatic Little involvement by household members Eco-efficient equipment and technology Easy Care

43. EASY CARE The "easy-care" household is characterised by high-tech equipment helping users in their daily life. The various tasks are fulfilled automatically or with very low personal involvement. Shopping is conducted virtually and delivered to the household. Automatic cookers quickly prepare food in the kitchen. Clothes have microchip labels which automatically provide cleaning information to clothing washing equipment. The home is fully equipped with intelligent appliances able to regulate the heating, control the lighting and optimise the fulfilment of the various household functions. Behind this easy/automated domestic space, the environmental goal is to relate as much as possible the eco-efficient equipment and products to push the household members life-styles towards sustainability through rationalisation and optimisation of their behaviours. Intelligent kitchen storage equipment suggests the best methods to cook the available ingredients with the least environmental impact. A ‘dirt’ detector indicates automatically when it is time to clean each piece of clothing. An automatic energy control system works to match the limited amount of energy allocated to each household with the various requirements of the household members. TOO BAD FOR THE WASHING ! HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO

44. Key success factors 1. Good stakeholder management: • Involve stakeholders before, during, and after workshops • Involve them in assessment activities • Create a follow-up perspective • Clear long term sustainability goals: • Important that government act as goal-setter • Goals should be shared by stakeholders

45. Transitions • Persistent environmental problems require transitions • transitions are social transformation processes • they involve simultaneous changes in technology, economy, socio-cultural systems, and institutions • government should develop transition management

46. Transitions: CO2 neutral energy

47. Transition management: characteristics • Long term thinking • multi-domain and multi-actor • steering on learning processes • system innovation • keep many options open

48. Transition management

49. kaders voor duurzaamheid • Goede bereikbaarheidvan economische en sociale bestemmingen • Veiligvoor mensen in en om het mobiliteitssysteem • Near-zero emissieszonder negatieve effecten voor mens en milieu • Ruimtelijke kwaliteitgeen groter ruimtebeslag van mobiliteit • Uitstekende leefomgevingruimte in woonwijken voor de bewoners, m.n. kinderen. • Zekerheid van energievoorziening

50. Burgers Politiek Overheid Lok. politiek Reg. overheden Wetenschap Bedrijven EU / EC Een cyclische aanpak van transitie, bezien vanuit de overheid Kader: Bereikbaar Kader: …. Toekomstschets 1 Discussie Kader: Near Zero Emission Toekomstschets 2 Toekomstschets 3 Duurzaamheidtoets: schetsen binnen kaders ? Toekomstschets 4 Toekomstschets 5 Signaal vanuit de overheid Robuust KT en LT beleid Duurzame Toekomstschets 2 Back-casting Confrontatie met KT beleid Beleidsstrategie A Synthese beleids-strategieën Duurzame Toekomstschets 3 Beleidsstrategie B Robuuste LT beleidsstrategie Duurzame Toekomstschets 4 Beleidsstrategie C 2002 2010 2020 2030