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Dushanbe – Astana – 2011

AGENCY ON STATISTICS UNDER PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN. The experience of Tajikistan’s statisticians on the use of seasonal adjustment in statistical analysis. Abdulloev M. Nabiev I. Dushanbe – Astana – 2011. AGENCY ON STATISTICS UNDER PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN.

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Dushanbe – Astana – 2011

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  1. AGENCY ON STATISTICS UNDER PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN The experience of Tajikistan’s statisticians on the use of seasonal adjustment in statistical analysis Abdulloev M. Nabiev I. Dushanbe – Astana – 2011

  2. AGENCY ON STATISTICS UNDER PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN Seasonal adjustment • SA – is an analysis method, with which you can identify and then remove factors from the time series that occur regularly and are related to seasonal activities • Seasonal adjustment of time series can be done by removing seasonal activity from the raw data • Time series is produced by removing the remaining irregular influences from the time series with seasonal adjustment.

  3. AGENCY ON STATISTICS UNDER PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN Seasonal adjustment Seasonality – the changes of time series with a one-year cycle, depending on calendar period of the year, the phenomena of nature, holidays, etc. As an example, it is interesting to compare the seasonal changes in the price levels in Tajikistan. In Tajikistan, the price level in the holidays (such as Nowruz, New Year, Eid al-Adha, etc.) significantly increases. The occurrences that are affected by seasonal changes, necessary to investigate for the presence of the main trends of development. You must distribute the amount of change of the occurrence between seasonal component

  4. AGENCY ON STATISTICS UNDER PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN Current situation As part of the project “Strengthening the National Statistical System of Tajikistan” in 2007, an expert from Sweden visited the Agency - Alex Teterekovsky. The mission consisted of training the Tajik specialists in how to use seasonal adjustment in the statistical analysis. The expert recommended the use of the software “Demetra”. In 2010, a study visit to Sweden's Statistical Office was organized. It concentrated on learning to use “Tramo-Seats”.

  5. AGENCY ON STATISTICS UNDER PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN Current situation Currently, industry-based charts of time series were prepared using the program Demetra (for agriculture, transport, services, trade, etc.). These charts are published in the monthly report on “The socio-economic situation of the Republic of Tajikistan” as of December 2010. Due to the fact that from January 2011, the Agency started applying the General Classification of Economic Activities (GCEA), it is necessary to recalculate the time series according to the requirements of this classification. After creating the new time series we plan to introduce seasonal adjustment of these statistical indicators.

  6. AGENCY ON STATISTICS UNDER PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN Problems and challenges • How to use the resulting seasonally adjusted data in the System of National Accounts? • Lack of methodological guidelines in Russian. • Shortages of skilled professionals in the system. • Lack of methodology for calculation of seasonal adjustment on the level of specific regions of the country.

  7. AGENCY ON STATISTICS UNDER PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN Future plans of the Agency • recalculation of time series based on the new economic classification; • creation of databases for seasonal adjustment of individual indicators on the level of branch offices of the Agency; • training of employees of the regional statistical offices; • exchange of experiences with other CIS countries; • improvement of the methodology used for seasonal adjustment.

  8. AGENCY ON STATISTICS UNDER PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN Expectations towards the Workshop • To study the skills and experiences of other countries in the use of seasonal adjustment in the production of statistics; • Implementation of the acquired knowledge and experience to the statistical system of the Republic of Tajikistan.

  9. AGENCY ON STATISTICS UNDER PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN Gross agricultural production monthly in 2006 - 2010,. seasonally adjusted

  10. AGENCY ON STATISTICS UNDER PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN Address: Dushanbe, 734025, ul.Bokhtar 17 The Republic of TajikistanPhone: (992 37) 223-25-53 Fax: (992 37) 221-43-75 E-mail: stat@tojikiston.com Web-site: http://www.stat.tj

  11. AGENCY ON STATISTICS UNDER PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN Thank you for your attention!

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