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Francois Delobel

Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change MOSAICC: Methodology and software overview. Francois Delobel. Content. Objectives System overview Models Interface Current status. 1. Objectives. MOSAICC: Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change

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Francois Delobel

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  1. Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate ChangeMOSAICC: Methodology and software overview Francois Delobel

  2. Content • Objectives • System overview • Models • Interface • Current status

  3. 1. Objectives MOSAICC: Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Integrated package of models and utilities to assess climate change impact on agriculture at national level Unique software architecture allowing various experts to collaborate remotely End: education, capacity building and decision support tool

  4. 2. System overview The system is installed on a server. Access is given through web interfaces 1 common spatial database If not open source, all models are free of charge

  5. 2. System overview • 4 disciplines corresponding to 4 user profiles: • climate: processing climate data for the models • hydrology: estimation of future water resources • crops: production of crop yield projections • economy: assessment of changing crop yields on the national economy

  6. 2. System overview IPCC GCMLow resolution projections Climate Historical weather data Downscaled climate projections Historical crop yield statistics Historical water use statistics Crop characteristics Historical discharge data Crops Hydrology Soil and Land use data Soil data Dam characteristics Technological progressscenarios Yield projections Water resourcesprojections Current state of economy Economy Macroeconomicscenarios Economic impacts Server Modellersinterface End-userinterface

  7. 3. Models SD portal: statistical downscaling for climate data AQUACROP: crop model WABAL: crop specific water balance model STREAM: hydrological model CGE: computable general equilibrium model (economics) Other utilities: interpolation (kriging, AURELHY), growing season beginning and length calculation routines, spatial data management tools etc.

  8. 4. Example of interface

  9. 5. Current status • After about a year and a half of development, MOSAICC v. Alpha will be installed in Moroccan institutions (under negotiation) • This pilot experience comprises: • server and software installation • constitution of a working group of national experts • trainings • tests of the models and conduction of an impact study at national level

  10. Thank you for your attention Mauro Evangelisti Servizi Informatici Numerical Ecology of Aquatic Systems AgroMetShell • Info: • www.fao.org/climatechange/mosaicc • MOSAICC@fao.org • Partners:

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